The Cubs won last night, with a little bit of luck on a Patrick Wisdom warning track fly ball proving the difference. It was a game-manager outing from Alec Mills, who only struck out three while walking two but kept the damage to two runs across six innings, which is something you enjoy seeing. Mills is good. 4.25 FIP. 4.46 xERA. Since coming to the rotation full-time, he’s got a 3.41 in the FIP department over nine starts with nearly a 3:1 K:BB ratio. For all the Kyle Hendricks comparisons Zach Davies draws, Mills doesn’t get nearly enough.
Manny Rodríguez closed it out, striking out one of four batters in a scoreless ninth. Codi Heuer was the setup man, a role I think he’s fairly accustomed to, judging by his presence in the top 75 qualified relievers by leverage index. It was a good-looking two innings, and given the talent the pair possesses, it’s probably worth asking: Are these guys the late-inning combination that will take the Cubs through future Octobers?
The answer’s probably no. Consistently good relievers are extraordinarily hard to find. It’s a fickle, small-sample, mental-to-an-extent-we-probably-don’t-understand job that just doesn’t lend itself well to consistency. So when the guys are young and unproven, it’s even less wise to dream on them handing the ball to one another in the Rogers Centre in October 2023.
That said, they could be it. It’s unlikely, but it’s possible, and the better they perform these next two months, the better the chances it really will come to pass. Given the Cubs, on paper (FanGraphs’s depth charts), have the third-worst rotation and second-worst assortment of position players but only the sixth-worst bullpen, it’s as good a thing to enjoy right now as anything.
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The Diaspora:
Javy Báez did one of his slides to score for the Mets in what turned out to be a close, potentially crucial game, as the Mets are in a perilous perch atop the NL East (edit: Báez also homered to give the Mets the late lead). Anthony Rizzo homered again for the Yankees.
Around the Division:
Eric Lauer has been added to the Brewers’ covid casualty list, while John Axford is out for the season after destroying his elbow in his major league return. Woof. Poor guy.
Up Next:
The rubber match.
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Whom:
Cubs vs. Colorado
When:
2:10 PM Chicago Time
Where:
Coors Field
Weather:
Temperatures around 90, not much wind but what wind there is should be blowing across and out towards left.
Starting Pitchers:
Jake Arrieta vs. Antonio Senzatela
The Opponent:
Senzatela has missed nearly a month with Covid, so he might not be fully stretched out. He was having a career year before the infection after a solid season last year as well, with a 4.59 xERA so far this campaign and a 3.95 FIP.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are +146 underdogs on the consensus, with the Rockies at -156 to give the Cubs an implied win probability around 38%. Over/under’s at 11½ and favors the over.
Cubs News:
The schedule for next year is out, and while it’s hard to say this far ahead of time, it looks like there isn’t a month as grueling as June was this year, though one August-September stretch does look challenging. We’ll see. (Obligatory note that covid and CBA negotiations could cause a schedule change.)
The Cubs are trying to put a massive sportsbook at Wrigley Field, and there will be jokes made about the Ricketts’ profits but in all seriousness, this should be good for the Cubs financially and sounds fun. If no one else will, I will try to start the RE-VE-NUE chant.
Cubs Thoughts:
Winning the series would be nice.
