Tomorrow, the College Football Playoff Selection Committee will announce which four teams will play in this year’s College Football Playoff. There will likely be disagreement over who deserves the fourth spot. The most likely candidates, as of 1:20 PM CST, look to be:
- An 11-2 team with a middling offense, great defense, tough schedule, one bad loss, and three top 25 wins.
- An 11-2 team with one good win, a respectable schedule, one bad loss, and one loss on a last-second touchdown in a non-conference game against a marquee opponent.
- A 12-1 team with flaws either in their schedule or the quality of their loss who made their final case by winning a game featuring multiple turnovers, a concussed quarterback sent back onto the field where he proceeded to not see an open receiver in the endzone, and seemingly countless blown coverages.
The teams that, as of 1:25 PM CST, look most likely to surely be in are:
- A powerhouse of an undefeated team who has obliterated every opponent in their path, to the degree where none look particularly impressive despite grading out well by objective measures.
- A second undefeated team led by a lovable Cajun with a voice made of gravel, with an historically good quarterback who is something of a redemption story, which has traveled all across the south beating strong opponent after strong opponent over a thrilling season.
- A third undefeated team, the defending champions, which hasn’t played anyone very good (through no fault of their own) but has walked all over the opponents they have, treating the entire season as a tune-up for the Fiesta Bowl or Peach Bowl.
Clearly, there are three teams deserving of a chance to win a national championship. The fourth team will, more likely than not, be an underwhelming choice, and a heavy underdog in the semifinal.
Yet, when it’s difficult to choose a fourth team, the response will not be to point out that the fourth team, in this particular season, is going to be bad regardless, and if there were a practical way to do it, a three-team playoff would make more sense this year. The response will instead be to pine for the overhaul of a system that’s given us three thrilling championship games in its five years of existence and little debate over who is the true champion.
This doesn’t all go to say that the College Football Playoff would be worse if it expanded. It would still be exciting, and the season would remain exciting. There would be more top eight (or top six) matchups. Non-conference scheduling likely wouldn’t change too significantly.
It also doesn’t all go to say that the College Football Playoff has been perfect in its four years of existence. Four is, as all numbers would eventually be, an awkward number. The committee has, in some years, had a very difficult job. TCU might have been the best team in the country in 2014 (though that problem was fixed with the addition of the Big 12 Championship Game). Teams like UCF in 2017 should have a path to winning the national championship without having to claim it themselves in protest (though that problem could be solved with willingness to play Power Five opponents on the road without a home-and-home agreement, or by creative collaboration between Group of Five leagues that sets up résumé-boosting games between their collective best teams at the end of the season in place of a certain number of conference games).
It’s just to say that it’s silly that the collective response is going to be lamentation over the lack of inclusion of, say, a team that lost at home to South Carolina, or a team that lost to Kansas State on the road (nearly by a lot), or a team that had the guts to play conventionally good-but-not-outstanding Auburn at a semi-neutral site and—oh yeah—lost to Arizona State, or even teams that lost to Georgia Southern and Temple, respectively; instead of appreciation for the fact that the system has, this season, as in three of the previous five iterations, given each team with a substantive claim of national championship worthiness a fair shot at the title.
Could the playoff be better?
Always.
Should changing it, then, be considered?
Of course.
Is it a system so flawed that change is urgently needed?
No.
There are, of course, arguments in favor of expanding the playoff. It would keep more teams’ hopes alive later in the season. It would produce more single-elimination games around the holidays. It could, depending on the setup, incentivize aggressive non-conference scheduling.
There are also, of course, arguments in favor of keeping it at four. The season is already somewhat naturally single-elimination, with each game at the very least feeling that it might be do-or-die. Expansion would force clearly superior teams, like this year’s top three, to play an extra single-elimination game, taking a season’s body of work and risking it against an inferior opponent who, even as a sizable underdog, would be expected to win something like one in four times. Expansion could, depending on the setup, disincentivize aggressive non-conference scheduling.
Overall, it doesn’t matter. We’ll love and hate whatever playoff we always get.
But please, if Ohio State, Clemson, and LSU win today, don’t pretend this year’s playoff debate over the fourth seed means we need an expanded playoff. Even if Georgia or Virginia or Wisconsin wins, that’s going to be a silly argument. No matter who makes the playoff, teams are going to be punished, through seeding or exclusion, for weak non-conference scheduling. No matter who makes the playoff, teams are going to be punished, through seeding or exclusion, for losing games no team seriously claiming to be national championship-worthy should lose. If anything, the problem won’t be that a team was omitted who might be deserving of a national championship. The problem will be that a team was admitted despite having a flaw on their résumé that should exclude them from consideration.
So, if you find yourself considering advocating for a six-team or eight-team playoff tomorrow, take a step back. And, if Ohio State, Clemson, and LSU have all won, ask yourself instead whether a three-team playoff might make more sense.
