1. Ok, that was amazing.
The Cubs swept the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Cubs faced Clayton Kershaw, Trevor Bauer, and Walker Buehler and won all three games. The Cubs walked it off twice. The Cubs got contributions from all sorts of guys.
Saying a regular season game felt like playoff baseball is sometimes overdone, but I do think it’s fair to say there were elements of that playoff feeling the last two nights, in that extra innings were going on and the fans were still in their seats. I really do miss having a full stadium. Looking forward to that.
2. Situational hitting, anyone?
How about Anthony Rizzo chopping one through the hole to win it? I don’t know that he was trying to do that, but a good little counterpoint to the “Cubs need to shorten up more with guys on base” crowd.
3. Matt Duffy.
Duffy now has a 129 wRC+, one of the three highest walk rates on the team (four if you include Tony Wolters), and the second-highest xwOBA on the roster—a .374 mark that signifies he’s actually been a little unlucky so far at the plate. Add in a little defensive versatility and you’ve got yourself a ballplayer.
Not that Duffy ever wasn’t a ballplayer. He was a 4.4-fWAR guy his rookie year in San Francisco. But after the injuries and after sitting out last year, there were questions about him being that guy again. So far, he’s been better than that guy (at least at the plate).
4. Ryan Tepera.
Tepera wriggling out of the Kyle Ryan-induced jam saved that game, and it shows in his .173 WPA for the night (win probability added). Huge outing. Huge, huge, huge. The other WPA leaders? Matt Duffy with a .768 (!!), Anthony Rizzo with a .465, and Joc Pederson with a .203. Go ahead and look at the win probability seismograph over at FanGraphs. All the leverage.
5. Another great outing from Adbert Alzolay.
Five innings, seven strikeouts, only one walk. The guy continues to shine.
6. The Cubs’ whole lineup is above average.
Using .320 as the average xwOBA (which it should revert to something close to over time), the Cubs have nine above-average hitters: Kris Bryant, Matt Duffy, Nico Hoerner, Anthony Rizzo, Jake Marisnick, David Bote, Willson Contreras, Javier Báez, and Ian Happ. Happ and Bote haven’t gotten the results on balls in play (each has a wRC+ well below 100), but even so, you can build a lineup out of that something like…
1. Duffy (LF)
2. Bryant (RF)
3. Rizzo (1B)
4. Contreras (C)
5. Hoerner (2B)
6. Marisnick (CF)
7. Báez (SS)
8. Bote (3B)
9. Pitcher
…and have bats the whole way through. That’s a fun best nine.
7. Enjoy the day off.
And go into the weekend feeling good about the Cubs. Three games against Pittsburgh now. Win two of them and the guys are back to .500.
***
Around the Division:
The Brewers lost again to the Phillies, 5-4. The Cardinals split a doubleheader with the Mets, winning 4-1 before losing 7-2. The Pirates lost in San Diego, 4-2. The Reds beat the White Sox in ten Tony La Russa-miscue-focused innings, 1-0.
Standings, FanGraphs division championship probabilities:
1. St. Louis: 18-13, 30.9%
2. Milwaukee: 17-14, 45.3%
3. Cubs: 15-16, 11.1%
4. Cincinnati: 14-15, 12.4%
5. Pittsburgh: 13-17, 0.3%
The Brewers wrap up their set in Philadelphia today with Brandon Woodruff trying to play stopper. The Cardinals send John Gant out against Taijuan Walker to try to take the four-game series from the Mets.
Up Next:
Day games all weekend. Zach Davies vs. Trevor Cahill tomorrow. Trevor Williams vs. Wil Crowe on Saturday. Kyle Hendricks vs. Tyler Anderson on Sunday.
