With last night’s solid albeit short outing, Zach Davies reminded us again that…he should have been so much better. Excluding his debut season, the guy had never walked more than 2.87 hitters per nine innings. He’d never allowed more than 1.17 home runs per nine. He’d never posted a FIP above 4.56, or an ERA above 4.77. In seasons in which he topped the low threshold of 67 innings, he’d never been worth fewer than 1.4 fWAR.
He’s walked 4.25 hitters per nine.
He’s allowed 1.39 homers per nine.
His FIP’s at 5.15.
His ERA’s at 4.91.
His fWAR’s at 0.3.
Davies has been bad. He was fine last night, but he’s been bad, and one thing to take away from this experience is the scary possibility that the Cubs might have done something that messed him up. It’s impossible to know all the causes, but some sort of mechanical adjustment or approach could have been part of it, and it’s worth keeping that in mind as Jake Arrieta and even Shelby Miller also fizzled.
In more pleasant notes:
- Ian Happ crushed a ball last night, and he’s now at an 87 wRC+ overall and a 130 wRC+ since July 26th, when he walked in a pinch-hit appearance to start this hot streak. The homer was only Happ’s second hit in his last three games, but it was a big one. A monster one.
- Frank Schwindel also homered, bringing his wRC+ to 147. On an fWAR/PA basis, Schwindel’s been better than Anthony Rizzo on the year, though it should be noted that Rizzo has the better xwOBA of the two.
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Draft Watch:
After yesterday’s dive, I’m not too concerned about this, so we’re going to phase this section out until the Cubs are locked in and we can make something of their place. The Cubs will probably land somewhere between fifth and twelfth, ideally having learned that they have some guys who can contribute at the major league level while also being in a place to grab a top-100 prospect.
The Diaspora:
After everything with the thumbs down saga, Javy Báez scored from first on a single and an error to give the Mets a walkoff, comeback win in a suspended game from April. Rizzo doubled and homered for the Yankees. Joc Pederson homered off of Walker Buehler, which was probably pretty fun. Wonder if Pederson would be a guy the Cubs would consider bringing back this offseason.
Around the Division:
The Reds and Cardinals rained out, so they’ll play a doubleheader today that suddenly has enormous playoff consequences by the standards of early September. With the Padres winning, there’s a tie for the last National League playoff spot, and with the Phillies winning, both they and the Cardinals are only two and a half games back of that tie. Fun stuff.
The Reds have picked up Delino DeShields Jr. to help firm up their outfield situation. The Brewers added Keon Broxton to their minor league outfield depth.
Up Next:
Game 2
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Whom:
Cubs vs. Minnesota
When:
7:10 PM Chicago Time
Where:
Target Field
Weather:
Temperatures in the low 70’s at gametime, with winds blowing across and a little in from the right field corner at five to ten miles per hour.
Starting Pitchers:
Justin Steele vs. Joe Ryan
The Opponent:
It’s the major league debut for Ryan, whom FanGraphs ranks as the 10th-best prospect in Minnesota’s 9th-ranked system. The right-hander has a 3.04 FIP over 66 innings at the AAA level this year, and has been striking out more than a batter an inning. He was part of the Nelson Cruz trade.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are +140 underdogs, with the Twins at -170 for an implied Cubs win probability of about 39%. The over/under’s at nine and leans towards the under.
Cubs News:
The Dodgers grabbed Jake Jewell and Ryan Meisinger as bullpen insurance. Active rosters expand from 26 to 28 today. Willson Contreras is getting closer to returning.
Cubs Thoughts:
This is Steele’s fourth start. So far, he’s averaging just over four innings, just under four strikeouts, two walks, and a bit more than one home run per outing. It’s a small sample, but the 6.39 ERA and 6.95 FIP are pretty bad, and on the season he has a 5.43 FIP, though his 3.72 xERA is more encouraging.
It’s all small-sample stuff for Steele, and it’s important to remember that the likeliest outcome was always him being a bullpen guy. Kyle Hendricks, Alec Mills, and Adbert Alzolay need to be productive starters for this franchise to turn the corner sooner rather than later. Steele does not. But it’d sure help if he was.
