David Ross made, or had made for him, an unusual number of interesting decisions last night, so instead of talking about poor Anthony Rizzo’s baserunning, let’s talk Ross:
Ross opted to use Craig Kimbrel to force extras and try to win the game, something that the runner on second makes easier to try by raising the probability of scoring in the top of the tenth. It didn’t work, but it was an aggressive move, and fun to see in the context that the Cubs are selling, specifically selling Kimbrel, and that using him this way probably introduces more risk than reward. I like trying to beat the Cardinals. I’m a fan of that. Sue me. This isn’t a video game.
Ross opted to pinch hit for Jason Heyward with a near-empty bench, and he opted to pinch hit Robinson Chirinos for him. Chirinos’d had a great first fourteen plate appearances as a Cub, but that’s a small sample, and the defensive ramifications implied either some sort of injury for Heyward or an utter lack of trust in Heyward against lefties, either of which is concerning with two years left on Heyward’s deal. Or. Or the latter of which is encouraging with two years left on Heyward’s deal, implying Ross is going to push to platoon the guy next year.
Ross did not turn to Kris Bryant, revealing Bryant was entirely unavailable, which is concerning regarding his hamstring. The Cubs shouldn’t trade one of Bryant/Javy Báez just for the sake of trading them, but if you’re going to hit reset, those guys can probably help you hit it faster than their respective qualifying-offer-tied draft picks could if you don’t end up extending them. So, I hope Bryant is healthy, and I’m worried that these consistent nagging things are creating an unfair narrative. But the Cubs are the pros.
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Around the Division:
We posted last night’s words so late that they included the Brewers’ and Reds’ results, and both are off today, so let’s go straight to the standings (and the FanGraphs division championship probabilities):
1. Milwaukee: 56-41, 89.0%
2. Cincinnati: 49-47, 6.3%
3. St. Louis: 48-48, 2.6%
4. Cubs: 47-49, 2.1%
5. Pittsburgh: 36-60, 0.0%
Up Next:
The series finale.
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Whom:
Cubs vs. St. Louis
When:
6:15 PM Chicago Time
Where:
Busch Stadium
Weather:
Temperatures in the 80’s, wind blowing across from right to left (and perhaps a little in) at five to ten miles per hour.
Starting Pitchers:
Adbert Alzolay vs. Kwang Hyun Kim
The Opponent:
Kim’s having a great year, and while it’s not as great as his 2.87 ERA implies, it’s still great. 3.80 xERA. 3.88 FIP. He’s a guy for the Cardinals.
The Numbers:
Cubs are +110 underdogs, Cardinals are at -120, that comes out to about a 45% win probability. Over/under’s at 8½ and leans towards the under.
Cubs News:
Matt Duffy should be activated today, resulting in the probable demotion of Sergio Alcántara and then a DFA of some sort. Unless there’s a trade today. Keep an eye on it all.
Cubs Thoughts:
Splitting this series wouldn’t mean a ton, but it would feel good.
