The thoughts:
1. It is good that the game was played.
The game went well. There were a lot of scenarios in which it wouldn’t go well—delay scenarios, postponement scenarios, bullpen-burning extravaganza scenarios. Instead, it went smoothly. Quickly. The Cubs got a win and got to go home for a night off before yet another day game today (before yet another day game tomorrow, before yet another day game Monday, before yet another day game Wednesday after a night game on Tuesday). About all you can ask for.
2. David Bote tattooed that ball.
Don’t think the wind didn’t affect David Bote’s home run. He hit it 110 mph. That thing had an xBA of .950. It barely found the basket. David Bote crushed that baseball, which isn’t a surprise, because David Bote has been crushing baseballs most of the year. Among Cubs with more than six plate appearances, (sorry, Patrick Wisdom; also, great job, Patrick Wisdom!), Bote’s third in exit velocity, trailing only Joc Pederson and Anthony Rizzo. His launch angle is low, but yesterday at least, that was valuable.
3. Adbert Alzolay was good again.
It was a bummer that Alzolay wasn’t able to finish the sixth, especially the way it happened (borderline pitch called a ball, and “borderline” might be generous to the umpire—I haven’t seen an ump scorecard on the game, so this isn’t to complain about overall umpiring), but it was another solid outing for the kid, who now has a 4.04 xERA and a 4.20 FIP, both of which will absolutely play in this Cubs rotation.
4. The bullpen should be rather fresh today.
Andrew Chafin is likely down after pitching on his third of four days (which was also his fourth of six) and throwing twenty pitches with a half-inning break in their midst, but Craig Kimbrel and Tommy Nance should both be available, and nobody else had to throw, which could turn out meaningful in the midst of this stretch of games.
5. Anthony Rizzo’s back is concerning.
Rizzo missed his third straight game with back tightness. We’ll see if we see him today.
***
Around the Division:
Since we last checked in, the Brewers won against the Padres on Thursday in the tenth before getting rained out yesterday in Washington; the Reds won in Washington Thursday before traveling to Chicago for yesterday’s game; the Cardinals won their first two in Phoenix; and the Pirates were rained out yesterday when they were scheduled to host the Rockies.
Standings, FanGraphs division championship probabilities:
1. St. Louis: 29-22, 31.6%
2. Cubs: 28-22, 28.2%
3. Milwaukee: 25-25, 33.2%
4. Cincinnati: 22-27, 7.0%
5. Pittsburgh: 18-31, 0.0%
Back under a one-in-five-thousand chance (we account for rounding over here) for the Pirates.
The Cardinals play in Phoenix again tonight, with Adam Wainwright starting opposite Seth Frankoff. The Brewers play a doubleheader in Washington. Freddy Peralta starts the first game, Brett Anderson starts the second, and the Nationals starters are not yet announced. The Pirates host a doubleheader against the Rockies.
The Cubs, as has been the case these last three days, could wake up tomorrow in the lead in the division. As may be new, they also could conceivably be the numerical favorite, if you trust FanGraphs (which doesn’t account for buying/selling, but is otherwise rather great in my opinion and experience, and that is not at all a suggestion or complaint).
Up Next:
Game 2
***
Whom:
Cubs vs. Cincinnati
Where:
Wrigley Field
When:
1:20 PM Chicago Time
Weather:
Much nicer, but still cool, and still windy (though not as windy as yesterday). Temperatures in the 50’s, sunny, wind blitzing in from left at 15-20 mph. Another pitcher’s day.
Starting Pitchers:
Zach Davies vs. Luis Castillo
The Opponent:
This will be the Cubs’ second time facing Castillo this season. The last time was on May 1st. Before that game, we probably talked about how Castillo had been struggling but was likely to figure it out (I’ve bet on Castillo a few times this year, so I don’t remember what was said when).
He hasn’t figured it out yet.
He’s definitely getting bad luck. His xERA’s 4.41 and his FIP’s 4.74, so don’t buy too much into that 7.61 ERA. Still, those are huge jumps above his expectations, and they’ve been accompanied by a massive dip in strikeouts and a noticeable rise in home runs.
It doesn’t sound like we’ll see Joey Votto or Mike Moustakas this weekend (other than in the radio booth, in the case of the former—your move, Moose).
The Numbers:
The Cubs are -115 favorites against a +105 line for the Reds, implying about a 52% chance of a win. The over/under’s at seven and leans towards the under.
Cubs News:
Nothing too major. The lineup should be out soon, so we can expect another update on Rizzo then.
Cubs Thoughts:
Would be great to win the series today for winning’s sake, but also for, to the extent possible, getting guys like Willson Contreras and Javy Báez and Kris Bryant a shot at a day off tomorrow if that’s something necessary and/or useful. Of course, you could also say that the Cubs would rather rest them on Monday, when Trevor Williams is expected to face Joe Musgrove in a challenging baseball game, but either way, winning today makes it easier to get guys rest, in addition to the more important thing of giving the Cubs that one more win that might be the eventual difference between buying and selling at the deadline, making another playoff run and not, signing one more of the core to an extension and not, and therefore the fate of the franchise over the next half-decade and perhaps eternity.
No pressure, though.
