Taking a break from what-would-this-guy-net-in-a-trade (Chafin and Tepera are up tomorrow if 1) everything goes as planned on my end, 2) nothing wild happens today, and 3) neither is traded before I write tomorrow) because…David Bote’s back! And David Bote, despite having the third-worst wRC+ among the thirteen Cubs with 100+ PA’s (includes Joc Pederson), has the best xwOBA among the thirteen Cubs with 100+ PA’s (still includes Joc Pederson). So yes, yes, the Cubs are getting their best hitter back (no, but he was outrageously unlucky before he got hurt, which isn’t meaningless).
Nothing to say about yesterday’s game except that it was a fine-not-good outing from Alec Mills and that there might be a slight reason to be concerned about Andrew Chafin (lots of rest lately, velocity slightly down, those control issues yesterday), especially in the trade value realm. That time of year. Maybe things’ll be more interesting post-deadline in the individual game senses. Or maybe we’re just going to blog about Brennen Davis and possible free agent targets for 2022-23 every day.
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Around the Division:
The Reds beat the Cardinals yesterday, 5-3. The Brewers beat the White Sox, 6-1.
Standings, FanGraphs division championship probabilities:
1. Milwaukee: 58-41, 91.0%
2. Cincinnati: 51-47, 6.8%
3. St. Louis: 49-50, 1.4%
4. Cubs: 48-51, 0.8%
5. Pittsburgh: 38-60, 0.0%
Sonny Gray vs. Johan Oviedo in Cincinnati, where the Cardinals just scored two in the top of the first. Brandon Woodruff vs. Lance Lynn in a really fun Sunday night game. (Lynn’s got a weird ERA/FIP split and missed a couple starts, I believe, but still a potential Cy Young guy in an open AL race, especially since the ERA/FIP split works in his favor).
Up Next:
Rubber match with the Diamondbacks. A thrilling scene.
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Whom:
Cubs vs. Arizona
When:
1:20 PM Chicago Time
Where:
Wrigley Field
Weather:
Temperature in the 80’s, wind blowing in from right and a little across at five or ten miles per hour.
Starting Pitchers:
Trevor Williams vs. Caleb Smith
The Opponent:
Smith was a swingman for the season’s first two months, and while he’s got fine numbers overall, he’s struggled as a starter, with a 5.20 ERA and a 5.36 FIP since joining the rotation June 1st. He’s had some good outings in there, though (there was one debacle against the Dodgers that’s dragging his other numbers down), so expect competence?
The Numbers:
Cubs are a -170 favorite, Diamondbacks are at +155, that’s about a 60% win probability. Over/under’s at nine and favors the under.
Cubs News:
Trevor Megill was optioned to Iowa to make room for Bote, who never went on the 60-day IL and therefore never left the 40-man roster.
Cubs Thoughts:
If I were to list everyone I would trade, it would be the following, for whatever price I could command (listed in order of what I’d guess their eventual price will be assuming Chafin hasn’t lost value the last week or two):
- Craig Kimbrel
- Kris Bryant if the Cubs aren’t extending him (which I don’t think they are and am increasingly thinking they shouldn’t)
- Zach Davies
- Chafin
- Ryan Tepera
- Jake Marisnick
- Matt Duffy
- Robinson Chirinos
- Dan Winkler
If you could surprise and get a 40 FV guy for Rafael Ortega, I’d trade him too (otherwise, might be worth having around next year as a body), and ditto for Rex Brothers and the other non-impending-free-agent bullpen guys (none of whom I’d include in long-term hopes aside from those who might be starters one day, but all of whom could pop off early next year and turn themselves into better trade chips then than they are now).
That’s a ton of guys, and not all will get moved, I wouldn’t think, but maybe those nine listed above actually all will. It’s kind of believable with each of them except for maybe Duffy.
