1. It’s his back again.
Anthony Rizzo is once again dealing with some lower back tightness, which is why he left last night’s game. Hopefully he recovers fully and it doesn’t have to linger throughout the season. Hopefully he recovers quickly, too. But fully is the priority.
2. David Bote bites the Nationals again.
It wasn’t as dramatic as a certain 2018 home run, but Bote’s two-run shot after—who else?—Matt Duffy worked a walk gave the Cubs the ballgame. Nice evening for Bote, whose xwOBA still dwarfs his actual wOBA (.343 to .258).
3. Nico Hoerner is a wizard.
Hoerner had some more displays of flash at second base, and while they weren’t nearly as consequential as Monday night’s, that was mostly because of the situations in which they came. Even when he doesn’t get the out, stopping the ball from getting through the infield is a run-saving move whenever a runner’s on second, which will happen eventually. And with three hits (two of which were fairly lucky, but still three hits), Hoerner did his part at the plate as well. With that kind of leather, league-average hitting will always play, and Hoerner’s been much better than league-average.
4. Zach Davies was fine.
Not Davies’s best, and Keegan Thompson had to do some heroing to keep things fine, but we got through the start without a total meltdown, which always feels good. Davies’s xERA’s still a dreadful 6.85, and he didn’t help his FIP last night (it rose to a roughly replacement-level 5.22), but things are at least still going better for Zach Davies than they were, and thank goodness for that.
5. An opportunity has been created.
Split these next two and you’ve got a series win. Tough to do (as we’ll get to), but still the most likely individual outcome. Go get ‘em.
***
Around the Division:
The Brewers lost to the Royals, 2-0, after a Brandon Woodruff gem. There were some questionable calls in the bottom of the eighth and top of the ninth—I wasn’t watching at any other point, though, so maybe they evened out? The Cardinals beat the Pirates, 5-2, jumping on JT Brubaker and scoring all five in the first three innings. The Reds fell to the Giants, 4-2, but Luis Castillo did strike out eleven over five innings of work.
Standings, FanGraphs division championship probabilities:
1. St. Louis: 24-18, 32.6%
2. Cubs: 21-20, 17.7%
3. Milwaukee: 21-21, 39.0%
4. Cincinnati: 19-21, 10.4%
5. Pittsburgh: 17-24, 0.2%
Wade Miley pitches for the Reds this evening opposite Kevin Gausman. Jack Flaherty and Trevor Cahill square off in St. Louis. Corbin Burnes takes on Brad Keller in Kansas City.
Up Next:
Game 3
***
Whom:
Cubs vs. Washington
Where:
Wrigley Field
When:
6:40 PM Chicago Time
Weather:
The rain should move out by gametime, leaving a pretty night, with temperatures dropping past seventy degrees midgame and wind blowing out to left at roughly ten miles per hour.
Starting Pitchers:
Jake Arrieta vs. Max Scherzer
The Opponent:
Scherzer is still Scherzer, and he’s actually posting some of the best numbers of his career in the early going here. His ERA sits at 2.10, which would be a career best if sustained. His xERA’s at 2.56, which would be second only to 2017 if sustained. His FIP’s at 3.10, which is only slightly below his career average but is still only slightly below Max Scherzer’s career average. Good luck to the lineup.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are at +140 to win and -150 to lose, which works out to about a 40% shot at a win. The over/under’s at nine and favors the over.
Cubs News:
We should hear more on Rizzo today. The only other big news is that the front office gave Cameron Maybin to the Mets for a dollar. He’ll have a major league chance there that he wouldn’t have had in Chicago, so they didn’t stand in his way. Which, economically speaking, might be a good investment. You trade a tiny bit of value to the Mets for a tiny bit of goodwill and trust from future free agents. Also, you get a dollar. You do that a couple hundred million more times and suddenly extending Rizzo and Bryant doesn’t seem so far fetched, right?
Cubs Thoughts:
Arrieta’s xERA sits at 4.81, which is fine, and his HR/FB ratio is close to what it was in 2017 and 2018 though a few notches below where it was these last two seasons. With the wind blowing out and some pop at the top of the Nationals lineup, this is a little scary, especially opposing Max Scherzer. But boy, winning last night sure eases the pressure, and while Trevor Williams isn’t the most inspiring guy on the bump these days, he’ll be facing Joe Ross tomorrow with the wind blowing out again. Keep the bullpen fresh, Jake. Eat them innings. Help tomorrow’s cause tonight.
