Seed List

The seed list below is our best current prediction of the final NCAA Tournament seed list. It is predictive of where things will end up. It is not a reflection of where things currently stand.

This is based off our model’s outputs, though we haven’t been running the model in full this year. Here’s how the model worked last year. One thing to know about this seed list: It deviates from our model in a few places. Our bracketology is built from our prediction model’s objective outputs. This seed list starts with those outputs and then makes small changes. We’ve listed those changes and the reasons behind them below the list.

If you’re looking for a reflection of where the bracket currently stands, we’d recommend Bracket Matrix. It is a great resource. It has all the brackets.

Automatic bids are marked with an asterisk (*).

Last Updated: Sunday, March 15, 2026 – FINAL

Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Duke*	Michigan	Arizona*	Florida
2	Houston	UConn	Iowa State	Michigan State
3	Illinois	Gonzaga*	Nebraska	Virginia
4	St. John’s*	Purdue*	Kansas	Alabama
5	Texas Tech	Arkansas*	Vanderbilt	North Carolina
6	Wisconsin	Louisville	Tennessee	Saint Mary’s
7	BYU	Kentucky	Villanova	Miami (FL)
8	UCLA	Clemson	Ohio State	Georgia
9	Utah State*	Iowa	NC State	TCU
10	UCF	Texas A&M	SMU	Saint Louis
11 (First Four)	Miami (OH)	Santa Clara	Missouri	Texas
11	VCU*	South Florida*
12	Akron*	McNeese*	High Point*	Northern Iowa*
13	Cal Baptist*	Hofstra*	Hawaii*	Penn*
14	North Dakota State*	Troy*	Wright State*	Kennesaw State*
15	Tennessee State*	Siena*	Queens*	UMBC*
16	Furman*	LIU*
16 (First Four)	Idaho*	Howard*	Lehigh*	Prairie View A&M*

Changes From Our Model

As we said above, we build this seed list by making some changes to our model’s original outputs. We do this for two reasons: First, this list is what feeds in to Bracket Matrix, and we want to make a worthwhile contribution, since so many people rely upon Bracket Matrix for accurate projections. Our model is imperfect. We’re not too proud to admit that. Second, the process of finding potential misses by our model and correcting them gives us a list of features to explore adding to the model in the offseason. For instance: In 2024, we realized our model was undervaluing Q1A wins in the selection part of the bracketing process.

What’s different on this list…

• Miami/Oklahoma: Our model has Oklahoma as the last team in the field and Miami–Ohio out of it. Without any good precedent on Miami, we’re going to guess that the committee takes the easier road and lets them in.
• Penn/NDSU: Our model has Penn a 14-seed, but we doubt the committee spent very much time on their discussion, and we think Yale’s status as a would–have–been 12-seed may buoy the Quakers.

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