I mean, the Cubs did lose, but having a 35-year-old always-has-been-a-bench-guy hit his eleventh career home run off your crosstown rival’s star trade deadline acquisition, who they’re possibly using suboptimally (we’ll get to this) and, relevantly, came over from your clubhouse, in the eighth inning to tie the game and force extras? That’s the way to lose if you’re going to do it.
A few other thoughts on yesterday:
- Greg Deichmann got a misleading amount of hype for his debut. I get it, given he’s the first from the trade deadline haul to debut, but that was misleading. He’s a lottery ticket like so many of those other guys. Anyway, glad he got a hit, partially to keep from a misleading overreaction if he were to slump particularly badly out of the gate.
- Frank Schwindel is trying to join Rafael Ortega and Patrick Wisdom in the hey-we-can-justify-keeping-these-guys-around-for-cheap-next-year-and-“give-them-a-shot” camp, hitting his second home run of the year yesterday and his first for the Cubs. He has the poorest case so far of those three, but to be fair, guys like this do materialize sometimes (see: Muncy, Max; Taylor, Chris; though they were both younger when the Dodgers got a hold of them).
- It was legitimately fun watching Kyle Hendricks oppose Lance Lynn. The bad inning was frustrating, given all the doinks, but that was fun. Both just so fun to watch. Soothing, oddly. I don’t know. Maybe I’m in a bad mental state right now.
- If Craig Kimbrel is better than Liam Hendriks, then the best ways to use Kimbrel, if you’re the White Sox, are either as your closer (this narrative might be outdated, but there was a while there in Boston and beforehand where Kimbrel had a reputation for struggling in non-save situations), or as a high-leverage pick-your-spot guy. The White Sox are using him as an eighth inning guy, seemingly to protect Hendriks’s pride? That’s if Kimbrel is better than Hendriks. The thing is…he might not be. Obviously, Kimbrel has not been his 2019/early-’20 self, but that still hangs over his projections, and I don’t think you can fault the Sox for using Kimbrel the way they’re using him. We’ll see how he’s used in October. I have a feeling Tony La Russa isn’t working all that closely with the front office on playoff bullpen planning, but maybe I’m wrong.
- While we’re on the topic of the White Sox, how fun would Chris Sale vs. the White Sox be in the playoffs? It’s a possibility.
- Do Cub fans want the White Sox to lose? It’s parallel to 2005 for me in that the team is painfully likable but there are one or two guys (it was Ozzie Guillen and A.J. Pierzynski in ’05, it’s La Russa this year) so villainous that they overshadow the whole thing. I hope La Russa does something Buck Showalter/Zack Britton-esque in October and it makes them lose. Something where he just forgets how to manage. Or that he has Eloy Jiménez try to sacrifice bunt when they’re down one with no one out and a guy on second and they go on to lose. I want this to come down on La Russa’s head, Grady Little/Showalter style. That’s where I’ve landed. Maybe that’s mean of me.
- Manny Rodríguez throws gas and gives up bombs. I don’t mind that makeup for a lottery ticket relief prospect. It’s a less drawn out version of Carlos Mármol, without Mármol’s filthy movement. There are pros and cons to both.
- Michael Rucker had the best outing of any reliever, but I don’t know, guys…I’m not sold on Codi Heuer as some next-big-reliever and I don’t think anyone else in that ‘pen’s close to a sure bet. I hope that, if the Cubs aren’t contending at next year’s deadline, they don’t hold a guy just because he has team control left. But I’m getting way ahead of myself.
- Matt Duffy’s savvy was a fun part of everything.
***
The Diaspora:
Javy Báez struck out in two of his four plate appearances as the Mets fell to the Phillies and fell stunningly out of first place, and down to within half a game of third. Kris Bryant had a quiet night at the plate in Milwaukee but I did happen to look at that screen just as he made a nice diving play. And speaking of happening to look at screens, Jesse Chavez closed the final inning out in Atlanta as those guys moved to within half a game of the Mets. Remember Jesse Chavez? *heavy sigh*
Around the Division:
The Reds are now within two and a half of the Padres for the last wild card spot. Their playoff odds are up to 1-in-3 on FanGraphs. They have the easiest remaining schedule in baseball by a mile. Good for them. I like them for some reason. Maybe it’s Votto & Castellanos. Anyway we might get a Kevin Gausman/Reds rematch in the Wild Card Game and how’s THAT for a storyline (sorry that was sounding way better as it built up in my head).
Oh also Castellanos and Mike Moustakas are both back for the Reds, and Adrian Houser and a guy named Jandel Gustave who’s made six appearances for the Brewers were added to the Covid list. Christian Yelich is eligible to return but still getting back into shape, which sounds a little concerning but maybe that’s just me and maybe it’s just the Brewers’ seven-game division lead and nine-game lead over the NL East collective for NLDS home field advantage.
If I’m the Brewers right now, I’m flying the Woodruff/Burnes/Peralta trio separately everywhere. Designated survivor stuff. Three planes, three town cars, wrapping them each in saran wrap…whatever it takes. Hope those guys are vaccinated.
Up Next:
Game 2
***
Whom:
Cubs vs. Chicago (AL)
When:
1:20 PM Chicago Time
Where:
Wrigley Field
Weather:
Chance of a thunderstorm, but probably fine. Temperatures in the 80’s, wind blowing out to left at five or ten miles per hour.
Starting Pitchers:
Adbert Alzolay vs. Carlos Rodón
The Opponent:
Rodón, like Lance Lynn, is a Cy Young contender, with a no-hitter to his credit (what happened to those was it all sticky stuff?), the third-best fWAR in the AL (might be the best after today—he’s 0.1 back of both Gerrit Cole and Nathan Eovaldi), the fifth-best bWAR, and an xERA and FIP that rank third and fifth among the 72 guys across MLB who’ve thrown at least 100 innings so far.
Love to see that against this Cubs lineup.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are +170 underdogs, with the Sox at -190 for a Cubs implied win probability of about 35%. Over/under’s at 8½ and leans towards the over.
Cubs News:
I haven’t seen anything big. One thing to keep an eye on as we get closer to the offseason is whether the Cubs do any wheeling and dealing to clear 40-man space, since we’re looking at a crunch. Someone rebuilding even harder than the Cubs could probably use Rafael Ortega’s optionless self in the outfield, for example, and the Cubs could potentially take on a bad starting pitching contract as part of the deal. Madison Bumgarner, anyone? Sorry, this is a thought. Let’s move on to thoughts.
Cubs Thoughts:
There is a scenario in which the only Cubs on today’s active roster still around at the end of 2023 are Kyle Hendricks and David Bote. And if the Cubs are failing to contend still and Hendricks’s contract is expiring………………..
Woof.
Ok happy thoughts there’s a scenario in which Ian Happ figures it out and Ortega/Wisdom really are something and Willson Contreras gets a nice extension and Jason Heyward climbs back into serviceability as his contract approaches expiration and Deichmann does the Muncy/Taylor thing and Bote stops being so unlucky and/or Statcast-defying and Alzolay works out and Alec Mills works out and some of these bullpen guys work out and maybe the core isn’t here right now but part of it is and so are a lot of peripheral pieces.
