1. That was emotional.
I think it was especially so because of all the uncertainty with the Cubs right now. This wasn’t put-out-to-pasture contributors returning to visit a team still fiercely contending. It was two of the most storied heroes from the greatest two-year stretch in franchise history returning to visit a team in contention purgatory. There’s some sadness there.
Anyway, the tributes were neat, and it was fun to remember all those great moments. What a collection of great moments.
2. The Nico Hoerner play was momentous.
I wish we had Win Probability Added stats for defensive moments so Hoerner could get some credit for that stop in the eighth. It only shifted the probability up by eight percentage points (from 90% to 98%, using Statcast), but considering two runs would have scored had he not gotten the out, the overall swing was much larger.
3. Anthony Rizzo was seeing the ball well.
Rizzo hit the ball 97 mph or harder every time up. That’s a really good sign. And against a lefty starter, to boot.
4. That’s not a bad way to manage Adbert Alzolay’s workload.
Alzolay was pulled after just 63 pitches, with the two home runs the only real damage he allowed, which is to say he made a few mistakes but he wasn’t getting shellacked. The Cubs are in a tough place between wanting to protect Alzolay’s arm and needing him to contribute if they’re going to stay in the general vicinity of the playoff race. This is one way to try to thread that needle, and given the situation, it was an effective time to do it.
5. Tommy Nance had a good debut.
Sharp, clean inning from the undrafted 30-year-old rookie.
***
Around the Division:
The Reds lost their opener with the Giants. John Gant vs. J.T. Brubaker today in St. Louis. Brandon Woodruff vs. Kris Bubic in Kansas City. Luis Castillo tries to get right against former teammate Anthony DeSclafani in Cincinnati.
Standings, FanGraphs division championship probabilities:
1. St. Louis: 23-18, 29.4%
2. Milwaukee: 21-20, 43.0%
3. Cubs: 20-20, 15.4%
4. Cincinnati: 19-20, 12.2%
5. Pittsburgh: 17-23, 0.2%
Sometimes the FanGraphs probabilities wiggle—they move around when they’re updated later in the morning—but if it stands, this is the Cubs’ high-water mark since the second week of the season.
Up Next:
Game 2
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Whom:
Cubs vs. Washington
Where:
Wrigley Field
When:
6:40 PM Chicago Time
Weather:
There’s a chance of showers starting this afternoon and building overnight. As I write this, it’s looking like a 35% chance of rain at gametime and a 53% chance at 10 PM. Temperatures will be in the 60’s and the wind should be blowing out towards the left field foul pole at about ten miles per hour, which, with the humidity, could make for a good night for hitting if it wasn’t for the rain (to be honest, I don’t know how rain impacts hitting on its own as an isolated variable).
Starting Pitchers:
Zach Davies vs. Patrick Corbin
The Opponent:
Corbin struggled mightily early this year, but he may have righted the ship. Over his last five starts he’s got a 3.00 ERA and a 4.89 FIP, and his last time out he struck out nine Phillies over seven innings of work, walking none and allowing just one run. The default assumption is that he’s going to be hard to hit, and that’s a reasonable default.
The Numbers:
It might move a bit yet, but I’m seeing the Cubs at -113 to lose and +103 to win, so a few notches shy of a tossup. Over/under’s at 8½.
Cubs News:
Nothing too noteworthy yet. We’ll see what the day has in store.
Cubs Thoughts:
You’re in an advantageous spot here, having won the first of a four-game series. These next three are tough, though. A split is still the reasonable goal, but winning tonight could raise ambitions by a game.
I’m curious whether the rain might help the Cubs tonight if there’s a delay and not a postponement, given I’d take Corbin over Davies and the Cubs bullpen over that of the Nationals. That’s a narrow needle to thread, though, and the real thing to hope for is for Davies to keep the positives from his last two starts going while the Cubs figure out the lefty.
