1. Zach Davies almost had a gem.
Davies was lights out until the sixth inning, hardly even allowing much hard contact over that span. Successful first outing in Chicago, which is encouraging for a rotation that does still have Alec Mills as a not-too-shabby sixth option.
2. Kris Bryant had another good day.
Again, great to see this. Bryant making good on his three-WAR projection, or exceeding it (he hit 7.9 fWAR in 2016, for reference), would be massive for the Cubs. So much upside with him.
3. Ian Happ does appear part of a platoon.
Happ returning to the lineup (and having a big day, incidentally) does confirm suspicions that his not starting on Saturday was due to the Cubs facing a left-hander. It seems like the Cubs want to get Jake Marisnick at-bats against lefties, and they’re most willing to sit Happ out of Happ/Pederson/Heyward to make that happen. Something to keep an eye on tonight, facing a lefty in Brett Anderson.
4. Anthony Rizzo stole a base.
Always fun (and again, some productive aggression against a team the Cubs can evidently run against).
5. It was a good, clean win.
It got a little dicey in the eighth (too early to say much about Rex Brothers’s performance—not personally concerned), but the Cubs were favored the whole way through. Looked professional. Not painful to watch. Possible Thursday’s misery was just Cubs pitchers not being able to grip the ball in the cold.
6. The Cubs are on track for April.
Before the series, we pegged 14-12 and 15-11 as reasonable targets for the first month. Part of the clear route to that was winning each series against the Pirates. The Cubs made that happen. One box checked. Now, on to the Brewers, who the Cubs play nine times in the next three weeks. In total, a 5-4 record in those games would do just fine, and with two of the series at home (including the one that begins tonight), those look like the opportune ones to win.
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Around the Division:
The Reds teed off against the Cardinals bullpen and won, 12-1. The Twins teed off against the Brewers bullpen and beat the Crew 8-2. Reds and Cubs are 2-1. Rest of the division is 1-2. Cubs’ chance of winning the division is down, on FanGraphs, from 19.3% to 17.5% (playoff chance is down from 22.9% to 21.3%, with the Reds eating up some space on each front).
Up Next:
First of many against the Brewers happens tonight. Here’s what’s up:
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Whom:
Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Where:
Wrigley Field
When:
6:40 PM Chicago Time
Weather:
Temperatures falling into the sixties. Wind blowing out to left center-ish at roughly ten miles per hour.
The Starting Pitchers:
Trevor Williams vs. Brett Anderson
The Opponent:
The Brewers are, in FanGraphs’s eyes at least, the NL Central favorites, but far from overwhelmingly so. Christian Yelich is trying to bounce back from a middling 2020 (by his standards). The bullpen is still among baseball’s best. They had a rough go of it against the Twins this weekend (especially at the plate), but it was only three games.
Brett Anderson, whom you may remember from his six starts for the Cubs in early 2017, is coming off two solid seasons. In 2019, he managed to make 31 starts in Oakland, reaching the 30’s for only the third time in his then eleven-year career while managing a 1.9 fWAR. Last season, he made ten starts for the Crew, and while he averaged fewer than five innings per start, he did notch 0.6 fWAR over the shortened season. Anderson’s only year with a FIP worse than 4.57 was one in which he threw fewer than a dozen innings, so for as rough as his time with the Cubs was, he’s generally been solid when healthy.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are -120 favorites, implying more than a 50% chance of winning but less than a 55% chance. The over/under is set at 9½.
Cubs News:
Eric Sogard got the start at second base, either in a platoon situation with David Bote or as a spot start. The Cubs released their 27-man South Bend roster for April (the AAA season doesn’t start until May), with no surprises upon it. Jon Lester and Kyle Schwarber are reportedly out for the Nationals right now due to Covid protocols, with no word but seemingly more likelihood than not that they tested positive for the virus. Hopefully both, and all affected by Covid everywhere, make an easy recovery and suffer no lasting effects.
Cubs Thoughts:
Winning is good. Winning tonight would be good. Matchup-wise, none of the three are all that different from each other (the Cubs do face Brandon Woodruff on Wednesday, but it’s Hendricks against him), so it’s not like tonight’s uniquely hard or easy within the series. It’s Williams’s Cubs debut, but he and the Brewers will be familiar with one another from his time with Pittsburgh.
