1. Wow.
There are a couple caveats to be made about Brett Anderson being physically off and the Brewers bullpen being tossed into a day game with little preparation time, but those pale in the face of the Statcast history the Cubs made with all the balls hit over whatever arbitrary threshold needed to be chosen for the performance to be record-setting. The Cubs smoked the ball yesterday. Over and over and over and…repeat “and over” about twelve more times…and over again.
2. Kyle Hendricks pitched alright.
Hendricks did give up another two long balls, but he made those the only runs the Brewers got through his six innings of work. Good start to the series pitching-wise.
Hendricks’s xwOBA is .378, which is terrible. His wOBA is .406, which is absurdly terrible. To sum that up, Hendricks has pitched badly and been unlucky so far, and he’s still had two good starts in terms of results. Which I guess highlights how bad those other two starts were?
3. The offense has it in it.
I think this is the best overall summation we can assign to the Cubs’ bats. They can do wild things. But they won’t always do wild things. More often than not, taking the sample so far as representative, they won’t do well. But sometimes…
This does necessitate the question of whether the sample so far is representative. It probably isn’t. But this description does track with the last few years, so…
4. The Brewers have flaws.
The Brewers seem to have one half of an awesome pitching staff. And one half that’s kind of a bummer. This isn’t impossible to fix, but bat needs may make it a tougher decision for the division favorites. All told, it’s good to remember that the Brewers are favorites by default. Not necessarily by their own merit.
***
Around the Division:
The Cardinals held off a late Reds rally to win, 5-4, in St. Louis. The Pirates were nearly no hit by J.A. Happ, losing 2-0 in Minneapolis.
Standings, FanGraphs division championship probabilities:
1. Milwaukee (11-8, 54.5%)
2. Cubs! (10-9, 14.8%)
T-3. St. Louis (9-10, 15.7%)
T-3. Cincinnati (9-10, 14.6%)
5. Pittsburgh (9-11, 0.4%)
Tight pack.
Up Next:
Another day game today.
***
Whom:
Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Where:
Wrigley Field
When:
1:20 PM Chicago Time
Weather:
Temperatures in the 50’s, wind blowing lightly in and across the diamond from right to left.
Starting Pitchers:
Adbert Alzolay vs. Freddy Peralta
The Opponent:
Over 18 innings of work, Peralta has struck out 31, walked twelve, and allowed just four runs (all earned). Eleven of those innings came against the Cubs, and in those he’s struck out 18, walked six, and allowed just one run. Walks have been the question for him previously, but he’s striking out enough to work around them right now.
Christian Yelich won’t be activated from the injured list today despite becoming eligible for activation. Brett Anderson’s ailment is reportedly a hamstring issue.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are at -115 to win against -105 for the Brewers, making them the slightest of favorites. The over/under is set at 7½.
Cubs News:
Shelby Miller is going on the IL for a little bit with a back strain. There’s speculation his back isn’t hurt and the Cubs are just trying to get him right without passing him through waivers, and that speculation is fair. Either way, the Cubs are trying to get him right, and if his back is bugging him, hopefully that’s contributed to him not being right.
Cubs Thoughts:
They didn’t get swept, and now a series win would leave them within one game of the division lead, needing to just go 3-2 over the month’s final week (against Atlanta for four and Cincinnati for one) to finish April at 14-12, which we said at the outset was a reasonable goal (alongside 15-11), if not the median expectation. Given the team’s previous struggles against Peralta, I’m wary of today and not sure I buy the market’s take on things. Given Peralta’s previous struggles with the strike zone and the Brewers’ current struggles to score, maybe I’m being too pessimistic. Either way, personally approaching this as saying another win is gravy, even if I don’t like the idea of going 3-6 against the Brewers over the first half of that season series.
