1. Business was taken care of.
The Cubs got a win they needed to get, and they made it relatively routine, even if it wasn’t a blowout.
2. The offense was fine.
An xBA of .303 is something the Cubs will take every day they can get it. They were hitting the ball hard, and they didn’t strike out too often.
3. The bullpen was good.
Ryan Tepera, Andrew Chafin, and Craig Kimbrel combined to mow down the Tigers for three scoreless innings while using just a combined 29 pitches. All should be available today, which is nice if it’s another close one.
4. Jake Arrieta had another intriguing performance.
Arrieta allowed just the two home runs, but he also got some routine outs off of somewhat hard-hit balls. His FIP and xERA are converging—the former is at 5.12, the latter is at 4.81—and they’re converging near the overall expectation for him, which is in the 4.75 range. If Arrieta does that and keeps picking up innings like he’s been, he’ll stay a valuable piece in this specific Cubs roster.
5. Jason Heyward smoked a ball.
Heyward’s double was one of the hardest-hit balls in Major League Baseball all year, clocked at faster than 115 mph. It was a good reminder of how talented the outfielder is, despite his struggles in Chicago.
***
Around the Division:
The Brewers lost to Atlanta, 6-3. The Cardinals lost in San Diego, 5-4. The Reds lost to the Rockies, 9-6. The Pirates beat the Giants in extras, 3-2.
Standings, FanGraphs division championship probabilities:
1. St. Louis: 23-16, 35.3%
2. Milwaukee: 20-19, 42.1%
3. Cubs: 18-19, 12.3%
4. Cincinnati: 17-19, 10.2%
5. Pittsburgh: 16-22, 0.1%
The Cardinals get Adam Wainwright opposing Chris Paddack today. The Brewers have Brett Anderson going against Ian Anderson.
Up Next:
Game 2.
***
Whom:
Cubs vs. Detroit
Where:
Detroit
When:
3:10 PM Chicago Time
Weather:
Temperatures around seventy degrees. Wind blowing in from right-center again at about ten miles per hour.
Starting Pitchers:
Trevor Williams vs. José Ureña
The Opponent:
In his first year with the Tigers, Ureña’s off to a good start, with a 3.60 ERA backed by a 3.56 FIP. His xERA’s only 4.72, though, and his home run rates, both per inning and per fly ball, are uncharacteristically low.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are at -130 to win and +120 to lose, so about a 55% shot of a victory again. The over/under’s at nine and favors the under.
Cubs News:
In addition to Arrieta and Nico Hoerner being activated, Dan Winkler came off the IL yesterday. Jason Adam, Brad Wieck, and Nick Martini were the odd men out, leaving the Cubs with still just twelve position players. That works well with a DH, but when the Cubs are back in NL parks starting Monday, they’ll probably want a 13th.
At the moment, it does appear Ian Happ will be that 13th, as the word on him yesterday was rather positive. When he does, it would seem Keegan Thompson would be the guy left to be demoted, but who knows what things will look like when we get to that point, even if it’s as soon as tomorrow (I suppose it’s possible it’ll be today).
Cubs Thoughts:
Another one today where the Cubs should win. Would be very nice if they did that, got the series win in the books, and gave themselves a shot at a sweep heading into a tough week.
