1. The Cubs won a Zach Davies start.
Davies didn’t pitch all that well, but he made the pitches when he needed to and got out of there without a loss. From there, awesome work by the bullpen, which didn’t allow a hit until Craig Kimbrel gave up those two singles in the ninth.
2. Craig Kimbrel won’t be perfect.
The Cubs closer has yet to allow a run. That won’t last. Be ready for that. But still—what a start to the year for that guy.
3. Nico Hoerner had another big day.
Just on fire right now. A couple bloops, yes, but bloops aren’t bad contact quality if you can hit it how he hit it consistently. I would doubt it’s something one can do all that consistently, but I also haven’t looked for any numbers on that.
4. The Javy Báez/Amir Garrett feud is fun.
Báez might be getting suspended. Those are the rules. I don’t have a problem with Amir Garrett—if everyone handled strikeouts the way he does, I’d feel differently, but he’s at the far end and if that’s the far end, I think it’s ok. I also don’t have a problem with Báez responding the way he did, though. Especially with it being Rizzo on the receiving end of Garrett’s talk.
***
Around the Division:
On Thursday, I wrote that it’d be fun if the Dodgers swept the Brewers. The Brewers have since taken three straight from Los Angeles, with the latest a 6-5 eleven-inning win last night in which seven of the eleven runs were scored in extras. Meanwhile, St. Louis beat the Pirates 12-5.
Standings, FanGraphs division championship probabilities:
1. Milwaukee: 17-10, 61.7%
2. St. Louis: 15-12, 20.4%
T-3. Cincinnati: 12-14, 10.9%
T-3. Pittsburgh: 12-14, 0.4%
5. Cubs: 12-15, 6.6%
Up Next:
Rubber match.
***
Whom:
Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds
Where:
Cincinnati
When:
12:10 PM Chicago Time
Weather:
Looks like it’s going to be mostly cloudy, with temperatures in the high 70’s and wind blowing across from right to left at 10-15 mph.
Starting Pitchers:
Trevor Williams vs. Tyler Mahle
The Opponent:
Over five starts, Mahle’s been extremely hard to hit, with a 2.80 FIP and an xwOBA of .266. His strikeouts are at a career high, and at just 26 years old, it’s fair to wonder if this is going to be a legitimate breakout, especially on the heels of steps in this direction last year.
That said, he’s only thrown more than five innings once this year. So if he’s dealing, it might not have to last all that long.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are at +130 to win and -140 to lose, so probably just better than a 40% chance of winning. The over/under’s at 8½ and leans towards the over.
Cubs News:
The report on Willson Contreras’s leg is encouraging. A little sore, getting treatment, but not in so bad a spot as to necessitate P.J. Higgins’s immediate addition to the roster. It sounds possible Contreras could play today, but it would be a good day to give him an afternoon off.
Keegan Thompson was called up. He’s supposed to be a starter with Iowa this year, which makes his addition all the more intriguing with some question marks lingering around the Cubs’ rotation.
Cubs Thoughts:
That was a big win, and if the Cubs could nab a series victory today, it’d feel enormous, especially heading into three with the Dodgers. I’d like to see Trevor Williams’s inning-by-inning xwOBA splits. His overall numbers aren’t great, but maybe that’s mostly due to those last trips through the order?
