1. Those outings will happen.
A bizarre one from Zach Davies, but hopefully just that—bizarre, unexplained, reasonless. Hopefully it isn’t the start of a trend.
2. Not enough offense again.
It wasn’t just the lack of runs. The Cubs managed just eight hits and two walks (as we mentioned yesterday, the average for those things league-wide is around twelve combined), and they were lucky to get those eight hits, with a number of them dinks and doinks.
The game wasn’t out of reach after the second inning. But it was out of reach fairly quickly thereafter, when the Cubs failed to strike back or even chip away.
3. Jason Adam pitched well.
If there’s one positive, it’s that the Cubs got a nice inning of work from Adam, who struck out the side in the eighth.
4. Gotta win today.
No, it’s not a “must win,” but it’s a high-leverage game.
***
Around the Division:
The Brewers’ offense woke up, with Milwaukee downing St. Louis 9-5. After beating the Diamondbacks in ten innings on Friday, the Reds fell in Arizona, 8-3.
Standings, with FanGraphs division championship probabilities:
1. Cincinnati (6-2, 33.0%)
2. St. Louis (5-3, 19.6%)
T-3. Milwaukee (4-4, 35.4%)
T-3. Cubs (4-4, 11.9%)
5. Pittsburgh (2-6, 0.1%)
Up Next:
Rubber match today.
***
Whom:
Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Where:
Pittsburgh
When:
12:05 PM Chicago Time
Weather:
Humid, temperatures in the 60’s, chance of a little rain here and there. Wind blowing from right to left at about ten miles per hour.
The Starting Pitchers:
Trevor Williams (former Pirate) vs. JT Brubaker
The Opponent:
Brubaker was solid last year as a rookie, managing a 4.94 ERA and a 4.08 FIP over 47 innings of work. He was a little wild in his start against the Reds on Monday, but he held them in check and was tough to hit.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are at -145 to win against the Pirates’ +130, so something like a 57% chance to win. The over/under’s at 8½.
Cubs News:
I haven’t seen anything too noteworthy, but apologies if I’m missing something.
Cubs Thoughts:
Frustrating night, but winning today would clinch the series and leave the Cubs in a decent place heading into a tough twelve games (three in Milwaukee before a homestand against Atlanta, the Mets, and the Brewers). Going 4-2 against anyone isn’t bad, even if it feels like an expectation against the Pirates right now. That said, the Cubs do need to win today, and that’s not guaranteed.
Hopefully Williams can pitch as well as he did against the Brewers. Hopefully the bats come around. Twelve hits and walks, five or six runs, win the game? Those seem like reasonable goals.
