1. This is bad.
Yeah, April overreactions are a thing, but so are April underreactions, and getting whacked by the Pirates two days in a row does deserve a reaction. Zach Davies and Trevor Williams shouldn’t be held to the standard of each’s first start, but each was hit hard, and the offense was impotent both days. The Cubs are already down to fourth in the Central despite getting to play the Pirates six times in the season’s first nine games. The Cubs have the second-worst run differential in the National League. Nine games is a small sample, but again, it’s not that small, and this should be a positive sample for the Cubs because of scheduling.
2. Kris Bryant is hitting.
Bryant didn’t have a great day yesterday, but the former MVP has gotten great results again through the first week and a half, posting a 151 wRC+.
3. Kris Bryant’s caught a few breaks.
The former MVP’s xwOBA’s only .357, which would correspond with a 126 wRC+. That’s solid, but it’s only in line with his 2018 performance, which was the worst of his five full big-league seasons.
4. Dan Winkler had a good inning.
That was a relief, after Friday’s appearance was so wild. Good to see him bounce back.
5. What’s reasonable now?
Prior to yesterday, I’d been sticking to 14-12 or 15-11 as a reasonable goal for the Cubs over the month of April. Neither is out the window, and it’s still likely the Cubs’ hitting will improve, but both those marks were pretty reliant upon winning four of six against the Pirates.
Over the rest of the month, the Cubs plays the Brewers six times (three at home), Atlanta and the Mets a combined ten times (six at home), and the Reds once (on the road). Going 9-7 against Milwaukee, Atlanta, and New York wouldn’t be impossible—the Cubs would need to win three of the four three-game sets and split the four-game set—but it’s hard to believe that the team we’ve seen so far is capable of doing that. Hopefully it was just a bad weekend. But on the heels of these last few years of offensive degradation, it feels more significant than that.
***
Around the Division:
The Brewers had another nine-run day, coming back from Thursday’s loss to take the series from the Cardinals. The Reds were shut out in Arizona as Luke Weaver flirted with a no-hitter. That’s a series loss for Cincinnati.
It’s good to remember that the Cubs play in the division with the worst top end in baseball.
It’s sad to remember that the Cubs are probably the worst of the mediocrity quartet.
Standings, FanGraphs division championship probabilities:
1. Cincinnati (6-3, 31.9%)
T-2. Milwaukee (5-4, 42.8%)
T-2. St. Louis (5-4, 15.4%)
4. Cubs (4-5, 9.7%)
5. Pittsburgh (3-6, 0.1%)
The Cardinals host the Nationals for a three-game series these next three days. The Reds continue their western swing with a trip up to San Francisco for three. The Pirates host the Padres for four.
Up Next:
Three-game set with the Brewers starts tonight. Done with the mid-series off days now that the Cubs are through home openers.
***
Whom:
Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Where:
Milwaukee
When:
6:40 PM Chicago Time
Weather:
I don’t know how the Brewers decide whether or not to open the roof, but the outside temperature’s supposed to be in the 50’s, dropping towards the 40’s as the game goes on, and the wind, high as it may be, is supposed to be blowing out towards the left field corner at 5-10 mph.
The Starting Pitchers:
Adbert Alzolay vs. Freddy Peralta
The Opponent:
Peralta held the Cubs scoreless over five on Tuesday, but he did walk four. He’s a big walks-and-strikeouts guy, so as much as the Cubs striking out a ton frustrates, it’s probably something they’re going to deal with tonight, with the upside of working the count being that Peralta may yield some free passes.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are at +117 on the moneyline against -127 for Milwaukee, implying a little better than a 40% chance of a Cubs win. The over/under’s at 8½.
Cubs News:
Beloved former Cub Dexter Fowler tore his ACL a few days ago, and it was just diagnosed, so that’s sad. Fowler’s with Joe Maddon and José Quintana on the Angels. Willson Contreras was evidently fined after getting hit by multiple pitches against the Brewers and taking exception to the second.
Cubs Thoughts:
The sky isn’t falling, but beating the Brewers in the series opener would make it a lot easier to write that phrase. Would be nice to see an aggressive approach to the series after the weekend struggles and before a day off on Thursday.
