1. Ian Happ!
Happ stayed hot, belting two home runs—his third and fourth in these last six games since returning from the IL—and in so doing, raising his wRC+ to 104. His xwOBA’s at .330 now against a .321 wOBA, signifying a major bounceback in the luck department.
Happ having even just a hot stretch could do wonders for the Cubs. He doesn’t need to hit home runs at this outrageous clip all year, but having him produce takes pressure off ailing guys in the lineup and the replacements for the ailing guys who are out of the lineup.
2. Trevor Williams got it done.
With the wind howling out to left, Williams made it work, managing to strand every runner he allowed to stop on the bases (both runs came on those first inning home runs, after which runners were allowed to continue to move around the bases until they were finished doing so). He had some help in that endeavor from Justin Steele, but even so, he got the job done, and while he’s not a guy the Cubs can trust to turn in quality starts right now, he’s going to compete, and as the fifth starter in a lottery ticket rotation, that’ll do for the time being.
3. Hopefully Justin Steele’s alright.
Steele ran the bases in the fifth as part of an effort to 1) get more than an inning and a third out of him and 2) save pinch hitters for later, with a sacrifice bunt a reasonable-enough move (Steele bunted into a fielder’s choice instead). He went out to start the sixth, but he was taken out before throwing a pitch due to some hamstring tightness. Losing him, or losing some effectiveness from him, would be a blow in the short term and possibly the long term, given he seems to be in a solid rhythm right now. This is partially a nasty consequence of the Cubs carrying just twelve position players right now, which is in turn partially a nasty consequence of having just fourteen major league-ready position players on the 40-man roster right now (Miguel Amaya and Christopher Morel are down at AA Tennessee and are not major league-ready). It’s a bad situation, and it may have cost the Cubs a few outings from a bright young bullpen arm they’ve gotten a lot out of so far (Steele’s sixth on the Cubs in Win Probability Added, trailing Kris Bryant, Craig Kimbrel, Ryan Tepera, Andrew Chafin, and Matt Duffy).
4. Ryan Tepera was filthy.
Eleven pitches, three strikeouts. Dominant. The Cubs bullpen is up to fifth in fWAR, seventh in FIP, and fourth in Win Probability Added.
5. That’s a good series win.
A very good series win. Taking three of four in a set in which your probable ace didn’t pitch and you faced Max Scherzer and Patrick Corbin (even with Corbin struggling this year) is a big deal, and it puts the Cubs just three games back in the division entering this set with the division leaders.
A reasonable goal for the rest of the month? Win each of these next three series. One at a time, of course, and one game at a time within them, but there’s no reason the Cubs can’t go 6-3 over these next nine, do whatever they want on Memorial Day against the Padres, and head into June within one or two games of St. Louis.
On that note: We’re probably getting into standings-watching season, given the buying/selling decision that awaits the front office. What would it take for the Cubs to be buyers? Probably a significant division lead in July. What would it take for the Cubs to hold pat? Probably a division lead in July. The situation’s a little odd right now, with the fifth wild card spot kind of looking open in probabilities, with Atlanta struggling, but also not looking open in the standings themselves, with San Francisco still flying high (how’s this for an eye-widener: The Giants are 8-2 in their last ten, the Dodgers are 8-2 in their last ten, the Padres are 9-1 in their last ten, and it’s looking increasingly likely those three teams will make up their own half of the NL postseason bracket while the other two teams play at the kids table).
***
Around the Division:
The Reds completed getting swept by the Giants, losing 19-4 after the Giants plated nine in the third, six of which were assigned to Tyler Mahle. The Pirates opened their set in Atlanta with an extra-inning win. The Brewers and Cardinals were off.
Standings, FanGraphs division championship probabilities:
1. St. Louis: 25-18, 37.9%
2. Cubs: 22-21, 19.3%
3. Milwaukee: 21-22, 35.0%
4. Cincinnati: 19-23, 7.7%
5. Pittsburgh: 18-25, 0.2%
It’s Jeff Hoffman vs. Adrian Houser in Cincinnati tonight with the Brewers in town. Tyler Anderson faces Ian Anderson in Atlanta.
Up Next:
Three with the Cardinals on a beautiful weekend in Missouri.
***
Whom:
Cubs vs. St. Louis
Where:
Busch Stadium
When:
7:15 PM Chicago Time
Weather:
Temperatures falling past eighty as the game goes on, with the wind blowing from right to left at five to ten miles per hour.
Starting Pitchers:
Kyle Hendricks vs. Carlos Martínez
The Opponent:
Martínez is coming off the injured list after hurting his ankle reacting to Jack Flaherty’s home run a couple weeks ago. He’s been decent so far this year after struggling significantly last season in his return to starting pitching: he enters tonight with a 4.01 FIP, a 4.35 ERA, and a 5.27 xERA. With the FIP and xERA rather disparate, it’s hard to say what to expect, but generally, I’d say Martínez is probably rather hittable as far as National League starters go.
Elsewhere on the roster, Paul DeJong’s out right now with a broken rib, Tyler O’Neill’s out with a broken finger, and Andrew Miller’s working his way back from a toe problem.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are -115 favorites against a +105 line for the home team, implying a little better than a 50% chance of a win. The over/under’s at 8½.
Cubs News:
I didn’t see much today, but that could change if Steele goes on the IL or if there’s any other injury news (Joc Pederson had a cramp yesterday that was hopefully just a cramp). Anthony Rizzo made it through the whole game, which is encouraging given his back issue earlier this week. There have been some hints that Matt Duffy might be a little banged up, so keep an eye on that.
Cubs Thoughts:
It’s a huge series for the Cubs, and while it’s easy to oversell it because there are so many other games that count just as much as these between now and trade decision time, it is a road set against the division leader at a time when the future of the franchise hangs in the balance. Winning two out of three would feel great.
The Cubs might be favored again tomorrow—it’s Alzolay vs. Mikolas in Mikolas’s first start since 2019—but the odds figure to be close there too. On Sunday, Zach Davies opposes Adam Wainwright, which feels like the worst matchup of the weekend for the North Siders. Seizing the opportunity tonight gives is important, and aside from Steele and Tepera, the whole bullpen should be on call for the task. Hopefully Hendricks and the bats render them rather unnecessary.
