1. Dink. Doink. Dunk.
Sometimes, you get lucky. Sometimes, that luck comes in the form of help. The upside of contact is that more luck can be found.
For whatever it’s worth, the Cubs did make better contact last night than usual. Their xBA of .316 might be their second-highest single-game xBA of the season, and I’d imagine the xwOBA tracks similarly. Home run-based offense, paradoxically, is more sustainable over the long term than getting the Mets to commit four errors, blooping in the perfect David Bote single, etc. But no complaints here. And it was sure a lot of fun.
2. Aggression is also fun.
The Cubs took extra bases. They forced the Mets to make throws. The Mets did not make throws. And while I suppose this could’ve gone the other way, and the Cubs could’ve run into outs, they didn’t. Their risks paid off and may have done something to contribute to the Mets’ mistakes/their own confidence at the plate.
3. David Ross managed his pitching perfectly.
Zach Davies struggled (eight hard-hit balls over four innings is a lot of hard-hit balls, especially when you walk a pair). But he got through it, made pitches when he had to, and Ross made the right decision to get him the hell out while the getting was good. Burning Rex Brothers and probably Brandon Workman for tonight was the right immediate move, too—don’t let things get too close—as was turning to Alec Mills, then taking advantage of a how-the-hell-did-he-do-that 27-pitch three-inning outing from Mills to get him out in time to keep him fresh for—Friday?—while getting Shelby Miller another inning to get his sea legs. Just awesome stuff.
I believe this leaves Craig Kimbrel, Andrew Chafin, Jason Adam, Ryan Tepera, Dan Winkler, and Dillon Maples available tonight, with the other four presumably available in case of emergency. That’s pretty good for a night when you’re going for a sweep.
4. Checking in on xwOBA’s:
Remember: .320 is roughly average.
The lineup:
Willson Contreras: .383
David Bote: .370
Kris Bryant: .364
Anthony Rizzo: .360
Ian Happ: .360
Joc Pederson: .292
Javier Báez: .282
Jason Heyward: .246
The bench:
Matt Duffy: .437
Eric Sogard: .270
Jake Marisnick: .262
Austin Romine: Has only had four plate appearances I’m not listing that here.
Contreras, Bryant, Rizzo, and Báez each have a higher wOBA than xwOBA, implying some luck for them that probably roughly evens out with the bad luck others have experienced (most significantly Happ). As a team, the Cubs are still just 24th in wRC+, but they’re ahead of the Brewers.
5. Kris Bryant had a great at-bat in that fourth inning.
Bryant’s single in the fourth was an expert piece of hitting. He bounced back from a bad call putting him down 0-2 to work the count full before doing about the only positive thing he could do with a sinker down in the zone, which was to hit a soft line drive into shallow center for a base hit. One could argue it sparked the whole thing. Even if you don’t want to argue that, it’s hard to say the whole thing would have happened without that at-bat. That’s the kind of at-bat the Cubs used to have a lot. More of that would be wonderful. Even just one of those was wonderful.
6. Javy Báez’s contributions are not limited to his bat.
Báez’s grand slam deservedly overshadowed his baserunning in the fourth, but his baserunning in the fourth was a bigger deal at the time it happened, and this gets to a broader point about Javier Báez:
A lot of Báez’s value is defensive. Some of it does come on the bases. So even when he’s struggling to hit, there are redeeming factors that “don’t slump.” Those don’t always outweigh negatives when he’s hitting poorly. But they’re worth considering/remembering.
7. Big chance tonight.
A sweep of the Mets would change the month for the Cubs. Even having won a series is great, though. Progress. Competitiveness. Signs of life.
***
Around the Division:
It looks like the Reds are going to be swept by the Diamondbacks. After losing the suspended game in which they came back only to blow a lead yesterday, then blowing a lead last night in the originally scheduled game, the Reds are two outs away, as I type this, from losing a third straight. They came back today to force extras. But it doesn’t look like it will have been enough. Elsewhere, the Brewers swept the Padres, the Cardinals were blanked by Max Scherzer & Co. to lose that series, and the Pirates split a doubleheader with the Tigers yesterday before winning today to take a series themselves.
Standings (assuming the Reds do, in fact, lose this game):
1. Milwaukee (11-7)
2. Cincinnati (9-9)
3. Pittsburgh (9-10)
4. Cubs (8-9)
5. St. Louis (8-10)
Win would lift the Cubs into a tie for second at this earlier than early stage in the season.
Up Next:
Game Three with the Mets, in just a few hours.
***
Whom:
Cubs vs. New York Mets
Where:
Wrigley Field
When:
6:40 PM Chicago Time
Weather:
Warmer. Low 50’s. Wind blowing out at ten miles per hour or so.
Starting Pitchers:
Trevor Williams vs. Joey Lucchesi
The Opponent:
Lucchesi, a left-handed swingman, is fairly new to the Mets, coming over from San Diego as part of the three-team Joe Musgrove trade. He was part of the Padres’ rotation in 2018 and 2019, making a combined 56 starts those years and posting ERA’s and FIP’s between 4.00 and 4.50.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are at +105 to win, with the Mets at -115, meaning the Cubs are again probably a little better than 45% likely to get a win. Underdogs, but hardly.
Cubs News:
David Bote was back in the lineup after the precautionary scratch on Tuesday. Haven’t seen anything else too noteworthy.
Cubs Thoughts:
I said this above, but a sweep would sure be nice, and would make up for some of the struggles of the last two weeks. The scoring was great, too. Have to appreciate that these days.
