Last night’s game did end up getting rained out, so we do have a doubleheader today, which swaps around the pitching matchups and leaves us with Justin Steele opposing Freddy Peralta in the opener.
Steele was a key piece of the Cubs bullpen early in the year, before he hurt his hamstring being asked to run the bases. (Yep, remember that?) But it’s his first career start, and there’s some excitement.
I’m a little wary of the excitement, to be honest. Steele’s a solid prospect, but he comes from the 40 FV set of guys (takes probably a few dozen of those to get one good, longterm starter) and still projects for some as a reliever when this all settles out. That said, if you’re going to get excited about something, there aren’t a lot of other options, and Steele did manage a sub-4.00 FIP every year during his minor league career, which will hopefully now be over. That’s intriguing, as is how well he pitched in relief early in the season, albeit in a small sample (11 appearances, 13.1 innings, 2.19 xERA, 3.99 FIP).
We’ll see.
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The Diaspora:
Mostly just waiting to see if Javy Báez will have to go on the injured list.
Around the Division:
The Reds lost a makeup game in Cleveland. They start a big week for themselves in Atlanta. Kwang Hyun Kim is back on the IL for the Cardinals.
Up Next:
A doubleheader.
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Whom:
Cubs vs. Milwaukee
When:
Game 1 – 1:20 PM Chicago Time
Game 2 – 7:05 PM Chicago Time
Where:
Wrigley Field
Weather:
There might be some more storms, but the overall chance of rain’s around 40%, which isn’t terrible, especially given that you can wait out a delay as long as it’s just one storm. Looks like the night game’s the bigger risk than the day game at the moment.
Temperatures in the 80’s, wind should be blowing out at ten to fifteen miles per hour. Not a great way for Steele to enter the major league rotation, but you don’t get to pick the weather.
Starting Pitchers:
Game 1 – Justin Steele vs. Freddy Peralta
Game 2 – Alec Mills vs. Aaron Ashby
The Opponent:
We talked about Peralta yesterday (bottom line is that he’s very good), and we talked a little about Ashby but that was mostly in passing.
Ashby’s a good prospect for the Brewers. Their top prospect, per FanGraphs, after making a big leap this year. He’s rated as the 106th-best prospect in all of baseball, and I’m not very in touch with the Brewers’ media circuit but I wonder if he’s auditioning for a big-league role here down the stretch (in the immediate term, he’s replacing Adrian Houser in the rotation as Houser’s on the Covid IL) or if this is just a pure spot start.
The Brewers are still missing quite a few guys to Covid and protocols. At last check, it’s Josh Hader, Keston Hiura, Adrian Houser, Eric Lauer, and Jandel Gustave, with Jake Cousins expected to be activated today.
The Numbers:
In the first one, the Cubs are +165 underdogs and the Brewers are -180 favorites, for an implied Cubs win probability of around 35%. In the second, it’s tighter, with the Cubs at +125, the Brewers at -150, and that implied win probability closer to 42%. The over/under’s seven in the first and eight in the second, with both leaning towards the under at the moment.
Cubs News:
Kyle Ryan has been optioned back to the minors to open up space for Steele. No word yet on today’s 26th man.
Cubs Thoughts:
A split would feel pretty good.
