1. I hope Ian Happ’s ok.
It’s not good when one of your thoughts after a play is, “I hope he didn’t rupture his spleen.” But that was going through my mind while Happ stayed down, especially before we could tell that Nico Hoerner’s hand had hit him in the face. Especially stinks coming so immediately after Happ hitting that huge home run—huge both for the game and for his own season.
2. What a play that was by Hoerner.
Hoerner getting up and throwing that ball into the infield as quickly as he did—and holding onto the ball for the catch in the first place—was remarkable.
3. I hope Willson Contreras is ok.
Contreras having to enter the game was rough, but it’s probably a good sign, given that David Ross could have put a pitcher in the outfield and kept Tony Wolters behind the plate in the post-Happ-leaving-the-game-on-a-cart shuffle. I’m curious if we’ll see him in the lineup tonight.
4. That game.
Ok, now we can talk about the game. Wow. Imagine how much you would love baseball if that was your first time watching baseball. Put that game in the intro course.
The extra-inning runner-on-second rule was a bummer, not just for the Cubs but because it wasn’t necessary to produce runs. There are plenty of games where it’s necessary, but that wasn’t one of them, which makes one almost wish there was some clause in the rule where if it had been a slugfest or an exceptional pitcher’s duel, they wouldn’t bother adding the runner to the mix. Obviously, that would be really hard to do well while building an objective rule, but if we’re wishing for things, put that on my list.
5. Trevor Williams was probably due for one of those.
I’m not sure about you, but I’d been hoping his bad underlying numbers (specifically xwOBA) were a product of late-inning struggles and not an indicator of what was happening the first few times through the order.
We may have gotten our answer.
It’s worth remembering that going into the season, FanGraphs had the Cubs’ rotation as something like the 28th-best in the league. The struggles aren’t surprising. The Cubs got a lot of hopefully-serviceable guys. Williams has mostly been serviceable. Jake Arrieta and Adbert Alzolay have exceeded expectations. Zach Davies has had a terrible time. Kyle Hendricks has had a surprisingly terrible time. Overall, yes, the unit’s probably underperforming fair expectations, but at the same time, fair expectations are pretty low.
6. Kris Bryant!!!!!
Yes, all the love to the rest of the offense as well, but Kris Bryant’s been doing it routinely. We’re a month into the season, and Bryant’s fourth in the National League in fWAR, trailing only Jacob deGrom, Ronald Acuña Jr., and Corbin Burnes. He’s on pace for 52 home runs and a career-high 10.4 fWAR, which doesn’t mean he’ll hit either of those numbers but does mean that’s how well he’s been playing so far. Good for him.
7. What a tough one to lose.
Maybe this is just my own overweighting of one game, but a win there would have left me feeling fine about the Cubs’ chances of getting into the thick of things in the division. A loss has them a game and a half back of even the Reds with the Dodgers coming to town.
They didn’t get swept, though.
***
Around the Division:
The Cardinals finished off a sweep of the Pirates, shutting out their hosts 3-0. The Brewers finally lost to the Dodgers, and did it handily, 16-4. Milwaukee now has a negative run differential despite being tied for the best record in the National League, which I think mostly just means that it’s early.
Standings, FanGraphs division championship probabilities:
1. Milwaukee: 17-11, 56.9%
2. St. Louis: 16-12, 24.2%
3. Cincinnati: 13-14, 12.6%
4. Pittsburgh: 12-15, 0.3%
5. Cubs: 12-15, 6.0%
The Pirates start the week in San Diego for three nights. The Reds are off today but host the White Sox for two on Tuesday and Wednesday. The Cardinals host the Mets for four, and as of right now they’re projected to face both deGrom and Marcus Stroman. The Brewers are in Philadelphia for four.
Up Next:
It’s time to play the Dodgers, something that thankfully only happens twice in the regular season. Two series, I mean.
***
Whom:
Cubs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Where:
Wrigley Field
When:
6:40 PM Chicago Time
Weather:
Some storms are supposed to move through during the game, which could either be good for the Cubs (might chase Walker Buehler early) or bad for the Cubs (might force the Cubs to play a seven-inning game against Walker Buehler). Temperatures in the 60’s, wind blowing out at 5-10 mph and moving from left to right as the game goes on.
Starting Pitchers:
Kyle Hendricks vs. Walker Buehler
The Opponent:
Buehler’s been getting his normal, very-good results, but he’s getting hit a bit harder than usual, so maybe that’s a good omen?
Cody Bellinger’s on the injured list for the Dodgers along with a few relievers, but even with that, they’re a half-game behind the Giants, Brewers, and Royals for the best record in baseball (wow—that’s a weird list) and they have the best run differential in the game by more than a dozen runs. They’re good. Yet again.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are +180 underdogs, with the Dodgers at -200 on the moneyline, which comes out to about a one-in-three chance of a win. The over/under’s at 8½ and leans towards the over.
Cubs News:
Still just waiting for word on Happ. And Hoerner, I suppose. And I guess Joc Pederson’s probably close to being eligible to come off the IL, if he isn’t eligible for that already.
Cubs Thoughts:
It’s going to be hard to beat the Dodgers, but a reasonable goal, as has often been the case, is to not get swept. The schedule does get a little easier from here—the Pirates come to town this weekend, and after two against Cleveland the Cubs get to go to Detroit for a set—but man, this week will be hard. Buehler, Clayton Kershaw, Trevor Bauer.
At the same time, though, the Cubs offense isn’t that bad. They’re 16th in baseball in wRC+. That’s not terrible. They have, though, as we’ve talked about, been utterly impotent against top-20 pitching, and all three of those guys are probably top-20 pitchers.
We’ll see what happens with the rain tonight, too. This game might not be played until tomorrow.
