1. This isn’t on the pitching.
Adbert Alzolay pitched a good game. Andrew Chafin had a bad outing, but he’s allowed one of those. Six runs isn’t nothing, but the Cubs need to score that many sooner or later.
2. The Covid stuff is concerning.
It sounds like the majority of the Cubs are vaccinated, which makes bullpen coach Chris Young’s positive test a little less scary, but it’s still obviously concerning for Young, who we hope makes a full, quick, easy recovery, and for the team as a whole. The pandemic is not over yet.
3. Keep an eye on David Bote and Ian Happ.
Among Cubs with more than a dozen plate appearances, Bote, Happ, and Kris Bryant—who tattooed one again last night—are the only ones with an xwOBA above the roughly .320 average wOBA. Bote’s is only .326, but that’s a lot better than the .205 results he’s gotten. Happ’s is .354, which is solid for him. Bryant’s is .368, which is solid for him as well.
4. Javy Báez has struck out in nearly half his plate appearances.
Báez always strikes out a lot. In 2018 and 2019, that was ok (and in 2016 and 2017 he was at least adequate at the plate). This year, though, it’s risen to a new height through the small sample, and while he’s smoked the ball when he has put it in play, he’s not making enough contact for his overall positive results to stay positive. What he’s done is unsustainable with that strikeout rate.
5. The hole gets deeper.
The gap between where the Cubs would like to be and where they are grows wider with every loss.
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Around the Division:
Wade Miley and Tejay Antone dazzled and Joey Votto hit one into the bay as part of a 3-0 Reds win in San Francisco. The Cardinals bullpen was outdone by that of the Nationals, as St. Louis fell 5-2. Pittsburgh hung with San Diego for a bit but couldn’t hold them off forever, losing 6-2. Rematches of all three of those today.
Standings, FanGraphs division championship probabilities:
1. Cincinnati (7-3, 35.9%)
2. Milwaukee (6-4, 43.5%)
3. St. Louis (5-5, 12.3%)
4. Cubs (4-6, 8.1%)
5. Pittsburgh (3-7, 0.1%)
Up Next:
Save us, Kyle Hendricks (also goodness how are the Cubs going to score six against Brandon Woodruff).
***
Whom:
Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Where:
Milwaukee
When:
6:40 PM Chicago Time
Weather:
Not sure if the roof will be open or closed, but outside temperatures should drop below 50 shortly after the first pitch, with overcast skies and lessening winds blowing towards the left field corner, starting around ten miles per hour.
The Starting Pitchers:
Kyle Hendricks vs. Brandon Woodruff
The Opponent:
Christian Yelich is dealing with some back issues. Unclear if he’ll play tonight.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are a +128 underdog against -138 odds for Milwaukee, implying a slightly better than 40% chance of a Cubs win. The over/under is set at 7½ and leans towards the under.
Cubs News:
Justin Steele made his debut last night and pitched well, striking out two over an inning and a third. Nothing big besides that.
Cubs Thoughts:
One game at a time, I guess. Best the Cubs can offer vs. the Brewers’ best minus possibly Yelich (and Kolten Wong, who’s on the IL with an oblique injury). Trying to end the losing streak at three games.
