1. Taijuan Walk-er.
Sorry, had to do that. Walker was wild, and the Cubs took advantage of it, working counts aggressively. Walker finished with more than 90 pitches despite not making it through the fourth. That feels a little 2016-ish.
Is it 2016-ish? No. The Cubs aren’t doing this every night, and Walker did a lot of it to himself (interestingly, home plate umpire John Libka graded out well despite some complaints from the visiting ballclub). But Willson Contreras’s bases loaded, two-out walk in the fourth felt big, and it was, raising the Cubs’ win probability from 80.9% to 87.9% and leaving it still in the 70’s after J.D. Davis homered two batters later to pull New York back within two.
2. Is Jake Arrieta good?
Four starts in, Jake Arrieta’s 3.84 FIP is 80th among the 158 pitchers who’ve thrown ten or more innings. His .367 xwOBA, meanwhile, is 202nd among the 276 pitchers with enough balls in play to be on Statcast’s leaderboard.
Those rankings are closer now than they were, and both imply Arrieta’s 2.86 ERA is something of a mirage, but there’s still a question of how much of a mirage it is.
In the end, whether Arrieta’s “good” is probably the wrong question. Arrieta was signed to competently eat innings. He wasn’t signed to be a top-half-of-the-league starter. And so far, he’s eaten innings adequately, sitting 27th in major league baseball in innings pitched and 15th in the National League. Still, it would be nice if Arrieta was good. So we’ll keep hoping FIP is more predictive than xwOBA and enjoy the ERA until told otherwise.
3. That Jesse Rogers article on the Cubs’ bats was interesting.
Rogers, for ESPN, published a piece yesterday about the Cubs’ struggling offense seen through the eyes of anonymous opposing scouts and pitchers. My biggest takeaways were that the Cubs have gotten a lot easier to pitch to over the last five years, no longer grinding out at-bats the way they used to, and that there’s a similar, simple gameplan for most guys on the Cubs roster: up and in, low and away. I’m curious, if the article’s right, about whether the Cubs failed to adapt as the league figured them out or got messed up by the hitting coach rotisserie. Either way, it seems to be an approach problem more than a physical problem, which is…good? Bad? I don’t know. Lot there to think about.
4. Appreciating Eric Sogard and Jason Heyward’s singles.
Before the fourth-inning walks, Sogard and Heyward came through with base hits to put some pressure on Walker. They weren’t scalded, but they weren’t fluke hits either. Just good, clean, getting on base. Desperately needed.
5. Appreciating the bullpen.
Craig Kimbrel walked a pair and gave up a soft single, and Brandon Workman gave up some hard contact, but even with that, it was a competent showing from the bullpen as a whole. Again, it was more thanks to Rex Brothers and Andrew Chafin than Kimbrel and Workman, but neither pitched poorly. They held a lead they needed to hold.
6. There’s an opportunity here.
With Jacob deGrom’s start getting pushed back to Friday, the Cubs figure to be underdogs but not overwhelming underdogs each of the next two games. If they can steal another one and win a series, it’ll be their first series win since the opening weekend, and it’ll leave them not unreasonably out of the picture in the Central at this early, early stage.
***
Around the Division:
Corbin Burnes continued to dominate, striking out ten over six innings in San Diego as the Brewers trounced the Padres, 6-0. Those two will play again this afternoon, with the Brewers looking for a sweep in Dinelson Lamet’s return for San Diego. The Nationals came back against Giovanny Gallegos after Adam Wainwright pitched seven great innings, beating the Cardinals, 3-2. Afternoon game there as well today for the series finale. The Diamondbacks are still batting against the Reds with a 5-4 lead in the eighth in a game that got suspended and will be finished today before the second game of that three-game set. The Pirates’ game in Detroit was postponed and will be made up in a double header today.
Standings (no division championship probabilities because they wouldn’t accurately account for the Reds’ ongoing game with the Diamondbacks):
1. Cincinnati (9-6)
2. Milwaukee (10-7)
3. St. Louis (8-9)
T-4. Cubs (7-9)
T-4. Pittsburgh (7-9)
Right with the Cardinals, at least.
Up Next:
Another cold one.
***
Whom:
Cubs vs. New York Mets
Where:
Wrigley Field
When:
6:40 PM Chicago Time
Weather:
Temperature dropping into the 30’s during the game. Wind blowing in at five to ten miles per hour, at least to start things off.
Starting Pitchers:
Zach Davies vs. David Peterson
The Opponent:
Because of all the Mets’ postponements, Peterson’s only gotten to start twice so far this year, both times against the Phillies, with mixed results. Last year was his first “full” season and while he posted an impressive 3.44 ERA, his FIP was a more replacement-level 4.87 and his xwOBA was a roughly average .319.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are at +105 to win against -125 for the Mets, implying a little better than a 45% chance of winning the series tonight.
Cubs News:
David Bote was scratched last night because he had an upset stomach, something that can occasionally be a Covid symptom.
Cubs Thoughts:
Davies has been concerningly bad early, walking more batters than he’s struck out. He’s not a strikeout guy, but he’s also not supposed to be a big walk guy. Hopefully he looks a little better. Three walks in each start so far, though over various innings counts.
