1. Thank goodness the Cubs won last night.
They avoided a sweep, which at this point seems like about the only thing they can hope to do if their starters don’t pitch like all stars.
2. Corbin Burnes is good.
But the Cubs will have to consistently beat good pitchers at some point if they want to be competitive.
3. Jake Arrieta’s results were again inconclusive.
To once again revisit FIP and xwOBA:
By my quick count, Arrieta allowed six of the 14 balls put in play against him to be hit harder than 95 mph, which would keep his hard-hit rate the same. His strikeout rate was higher than his season average, and his walk rate was lower, so those things should help his xwOBA, but not by a whole lot. It’s probably still a very bad xwOBA, which is concerning.
His FIP should get a little worse, but not a lot worse. I haven’t seen a comparison of which is more predictive of future performance (I’ll put that on the to-do wish list), but I’m wary of the xwOBA and not all that encouraged by the small-sample size FIP. In English, this means Arrieta’s probably been lucky on balls in play going right at guys, and that you shouldn’t expect too much from him.
4. That was a bummer for Shelby Miller.
Hopefully it was just jitters in his first time out there in so long. As was the case before, probably shouldn’t hold out hope for a big revitalization.
5. Adbert Alzolay to Triple-A?
It’s possible this is some innings management (let him skip a start or two), or that it’s just for a few days because the Cubs needed bullpen depth this afternoon. We’ll see. Overall, it probably feels worse than it is in terms of the Cubs’ immediate prospects. If Kyle Hendricks recovers quickly, the Cubs still have five MLB-capable starters on the active roster with Alec Mills filling in for Alzolay, and realistically, Mills probably isn’t much worse than Alzolay.
6. What now?
At the beginning of the year, I advocated for taking the first month as one entity (and hoping for 14-12 or 15-11 over April). I think right now, the mindset should probably be more series-to-series. The Cubs host Atlanta this weekend, and while Atlanta’s a good team, they aren’t great and the Cubs shouldn’t have to face any of their best pitchers, with Drew Smyly and Huascar Ynoa on the docket Friday and Saturday followed by a TBD that will be filling in the injured Max Fried’s rotation spot. The Cubs, by my math, figure to be at or better than 45% likely to win each game assuming they can stick to the expected rotation (Davies, Williams, Mills), and would likely be favored in one game were Hendricks were to start.
The bats need to wake up if the Cubs are going to be competitive, and the fact they didn’t hit the Pirates is a sign that facing Drew Smyly isn’t going to magically fix everything (not to hate on Smyly—he just isn’t Brandon Woodruff or Burnes). But if you’re looking for a way to hope for contention this year, winning this next series—some way, somehow—is the best shot. Consistent solid contact, even in the cold with the wind blowing lightly in, which is the forecast for this weekend, should get results. That’s a goal.
It’s worth remembering here that the Brewers have a questionable offense that’s dealing with a ton of injuries, and that the Cardinals and Reds are both mediocre as well. It’d be a surprise if anyone won 90 games in the NL Central.
***
Around the Division:
The Cardinals were also blanked today, dropping their series with the Nationals, and the Reds were also blanked, dropping their series with the Giants. The Pirates have just started play.
No division championship probabilities, but here are the standings:
T-1. Milwaukee (7-5)
T-1. Cincinnati (7-5)
3. St. Louis (6-6)
4. Cubs (5-7)
5. Pittsburgh (4-7, game in progress)
Up Next:
Day games Friday and Saturday at Wrigley with Atlanta in town.
