1. Well hello, Ian Happ.
A few days ago, we were thinking Happ might still be out for a while. Yesterday morning, we were thinking Happ might have to deal with some ramifications in the ribcage while still dealing with his early-season struggles.
Yesterday afternoon, we were sure glad to have Ian Happ in the lineup.
It got overshadowed by the hitting later, but the early-game baserunning—scoring from second on the Kris Bryant fielder’s choice/near-double play—was crucial at the time, and may have been crucial in the whole game, depending what scientists one day tell us about the effects of momentum in baseball. Just a great baseball play. Good aggression.
As for the hitting, well, it was certainly deserving of that overshadowment it took on against the baserunning. Awesome day at the plate.
Hopefully, Happ keeps it up. The read on him early was that he had some good numbers (solid xwOBA, in particular) but some bad takes. The bad takes were costing him in real results and xwOBA, though. That’s the thing. It wasn’t like he needed to catch up to his xwOBA. He basically had two bouncebacks on the table—luck and approach. Hopefully he’s getting some of both of them.
2. Well hello, Kyle Hendricks.
It is vitally important that if the Cubs are in the playoff hunt in July, anyone Atlanta tries to trade is taken in by Chicago. Whatever they knew about the pitch tipping of one Kyle Hendricks needs to be kept in-house.
Seriously, though. Was it just pitch tipping? Is Hendricks fine? Are we overreacting to a start against the Detroit Tigers?
3. Good vibes at a good time.
Missing out on Saturday’s win still frustrates, but the Cubs will steal and have stolen ones like that too. The important thing is that they won the series, they gained two games on the Cardinals (which was great given the Cardinals were threatening to get hot hot), and that 28-25 mark we labeled as a target entering May is still on the table.
***
Around the Division:
The Padres finished off a sweep of the Cardinals, so shoutout Padres for that one. The Brewers almost blew an 8-0 lead against Atlanta, and I regret to inform you that Freddy Peralta is still doing very good things (2.69 FIP, 2.05 xERA, an absolutely terrifying third option behind Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes). The Reds beat the Rockies, capping a great weekend for them, and the Pirates lost to the Giants, leaving them very much in the “hey, this could be so much worse” spot I would think they’re enjoying.
Standings, FanGraphs division championship probabilities:
1. St. Louis: 23-18, 29.6%
2. Milwaukee: 21-20, 43.5%
3. Cincinnati: 19-19, 14.4%
4. Cubs: 19-20, 12.2%
5. Pittsburgh: 17-23, 0.2%
The Reds welcome the Giants to Cincinnati today to start a four-game set. The Brewers are off but go to Kansas City tomorrow, where they’ll play a two-game series. The Cardinals and Pirates are set for two in St. Louis starting tomorrow.
Up Next:
Four games with the Nationals start tonight.
***
Whom:
Cubs vs. Washington
Where:
Wrigley Field
When:
6:40 PM Chicago Time
Weather:
Temperatures falling into the 50’s as the game goes on. Wind blowing in from the right field foul pole at five to ten miles per hour.
Starting Pitchers:
Adbert Alzolay vs. Jon Lester
The Opponent:
Lester isn’t the only familiar face wearing gray pants tonight. The Nats also have Kyle Schwarber and Starlin Castro. Will be fun to see them all.
Lester himself had a late start to the year after battling the coronavirus out of the gate. He’s made just three starts, but he has a 2.25 ERA, a 3.20 FIP, and a 4.11 xERA, with even the latest a very good number for him at this stage in his career. He has outperformed his xERA each of the last three seasons, which does make one wonder whether he’s doing a good job spacing out hard contact but also could just be a small sample. I don’t think we have much yet on how predictive xERA is compared to, say, FIP, which is famously more predictive of ERA than ERA is, but if we do, please correct me. Anyways, things are going pretty well for Lester and it’s fair to assume he might be formidable tonight.
As a team, the Nationals took a while to get healthy and are currently wallowing in last place in the NL East, where they’re…three games back of the division-leading Mets. The Nats are fine. They’re not what they were—pitching has gotten older, Stephen Strasburg isn’t healthy right now—but they’re a solid ballclub with two of the best players in the game in Juan Soto and Trea Turner. They are tough to beat.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are at -155 to win tonight and +140 to lose, which is a sign the market 1) values home-field advantage, 2) likes Adbert Alzolay, and 3) does not like Jon Lester. That’s just under a 60% win probability. The over/under, meanwhile, is at eight.
Cubs News:
Ildemaro Vargas was claimed by the Pirates as the Cubs tried to pass him through waivers, so he’s gone to Pittsburgh. The lineups are out for tonight, and the Cubs are playing the hits:
1. Willson Contreras (C)
2. Kris Bryant (LF)
3. Anthony Rizzo (1B)
4. Javy Báez (SS)
5. Matt Duffy (3B)
6. Jason Heyward (RF)
7. Nico Hoerner (2B)
8. Ian Happ (CF)
9. Adbert Alzolay (P)
With the Nationals, meanwhile, there are familiar faces beyond just those who used to be Cubs:
1. Trea Turner (SS)
2. Juan Soto (RF)
3. Josh Bell (1B)
4. Kyle Schwarber (LF)
5. Starlin Castro (3B)
6. Josh Harrison (2B)
7. Yan Gomes (C)
8. Jon Lester (P)
9. Victor Robles (CF)
Manager: Dave Martinez
Should be fun.
Cubs Thoughts:
Splitting the series is, as is often the case, the reasonable goal. It wouldn’t be surprising if the Cubs were underdogs the rest of the week, so this one’s fairly important.
