1. That should have been a win.
It’s hard to get too down on a team for losing a game in which their starter only lasted two innings, but the Cubs had that one and it was frustrating that they didn’t pull it out. Puts a lot of pressure on the team to win today against Matthew Boyd, who’s been pitching pretty well.
2. The bullpen handled the day rather well.
Alec Mills didn’t have a great outing, but he’s also going on the IL today, and Craig Kimbrel couldn’t close out a challenging save, but he’s still been awesome this year and singles happen. Keegan Thompson stole the show, dazzling with an eye-adjusting five strikeouts in two innings, but he wasn’t alone in pitching well, and it was a good reminder that this Cubs ‘pen has a lot of potential.
3. The Matt Duffy magic isn’t over yet.
Duffy’s big day at the plate reinvigorated some joy that was starting to fade. 45.9% Win Probability Added. Just a massive day.
4. Ian Happ’s back in the lineup…but how is he?
Happ came back early, and in a slight surprise the Cubs stuck with the 12/14 position player/pitcher breakdown, designating Ildemaro Vargas for assignment. If the Cubs lose Vargas, it won’t be the worst loss, but more importantly, Happ’s back, and if you recall, he exited in the midst of a game in which his bat had come alive after a rough stretch. Which basically goes to say: There are questions about his ribs. There were questions before his ribs. Keep a close eye on him.
5. Trevor Williams is struggling.
Williams might turn it around. But it has been getting worse, and David Ross pulling him as early as he did yesterday indicated a lack of confidence that Ross hasn’t shown with, say, Zach Davies. It’s fair to wonder if Keegan Thompson might be a starting pitcher again soon.
***
Around the Division:
The NL Central NL Central’d, with the Brewers falling to visiting Atlanta and the Cardinals letting the Padres pull away late. The Reds did beat the Rockies, in twelve, and the Pirates did beat the Giants.
Standings, FanGraphs division championship probabilities:
1. St. Louis: 23-17, 35.6%
2. Milwaukee: 20-20, 39.4%
3. Cincinnati: 18-19, 12.9%
4. Cubs: 18-20, 11.8%
5. Pittsburgh: 17-22, 0.3%
Freddy Peralta is on the mound against Huascar Ynoa in Milwaukee. Jeff Hoffman pitches for the Reds against Antonio Senzatela in Denver. Kwang Hyun Kim starts in the Sunday night game against Ryan Weathers in San Diego.
Up Next:
Rubber match.
***
Whom:
Cubs vs. Detroit
Where:
Detroit
When:
12:10 PM Chicago Time
Weather:
Temperatures in the high 60’s. Wind blowing in, more from center than right compared to the past few days, and at just about five miles per hour.
Starting Pitchers:
Kyle Hendricks vs. Matthew Boyd
The Opponent:
Boyd is working well for the Tigers right now, and he’s just about the only thing working well. He’s got a 1.94 ERA, and while his FIP and xERA are just 2.98 and 3.40 respectively, those are still great numbers. He’s never posted better than a 3.52 xERA or a 4.32 FIP over a full season, so he’s probably due for a bit of a regression in addition to the luck-based regression currently keeping his ERA so far below his xERA and FIP, but he’s still a tough draw for the Cubs in a game in which they could really use a win.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are at -138 to win and +128 to lose, signifying some faith from the market in Kyle Hendricks. That’s just a bit over a 55% win probability, but it’s not bad. The over/under’s at eight and leans towards the over.
Cubs News:
Mills, as was said, is on the IL now, and the Cubs have added Tommy Nance to the 40-man roster and activated him to take Vargas’s and Mills’s places (Vargas on the 40-man, Mills on the 26-man). A Santa Clara product, Nance pitched in the Frontier League in 2015 before the Cubs signed him the ensuing offseason. He’s been in the minor league system since. That is everything I know about him, and in my searching, I’m not finding many who know much more.
Worth noting: Shelby Miller’s rehab stint in Des Moines will have to end soon.
In happy news, Jake Marisnick was reportedly running stadium stairs yesterday. I don’t know much about hamstrings, but that seems good? Can’t be bad, at least.
The lineup’s out, and Jason Heyward gets the day off against the lefty.
Cubs Thoughts:
It’s interesting the line is where it is, given how much better Matthew Boyd is than Tarik Skubal and José Ureña. I guess it just reflects how much better Kyle Hendricks is than Jake Arrieta and Trevor Williams. Hope it’s right!
