1. That was fun.
There were a lot of fun moments in that game, and credit for that belongs to the Cubs for finding a way to compete with Max Scherzer (even if Scherzer was walking a few guys).
2. That fifth inning was good.
I’m sure some were disappointed that the Cubs didn’t score more in the fifth, having had the bases loaded with one out and one already in, but again: Max Scherzer was on the mound. The overall impact of that inning was to chase him from the game earlier than he would have left it otherwise, which improved the Cubs’ chances last night, and to force Washington to lean heavily upon three key relievers, which improves the Cubs’ chances this afternoon with all three of those guys now potentially unavailable for what might be a slugfest.
On a related note: I was listening to the radio feed and I laughed out loud when they announced that Adbert Alzolay was pinch running for Arrieta. Alzolay’s general exuberance this year has been a blast, so I think part of it was being able to picture his excitement, but part of it too was just the overall silliness that accompanies pitchers being called upon to do non-pitcher things. One very small upside of the very big problem of being so banged up. Speaking of which…
3. The Cubs will miss Jason Heyward’s defense.
Heyward’s bat isn’t that much better than Nick Martini’s, going off of projections, nor David Bote’s (Bote may slot in more often now with Matt Duffy available to play left field and Kris Bryant an option in right field while Heyward’s on the IL). But his glove is excellent. That makes a difference.
4. Do the Cubs have something in Tommy Nance?
Nance has looked mighty over two outings. It’s only two outings, but it’s the kind of thing a scout would see and say, “This guy can pitch.” Adding him to that rather strong brigade (the bullpen as a whole is ninth in FIP) behind Craig Kimbrel and Andrew Chafin feels encouraging, even if we should probably hold off on raising him to Chafin’s level in our heads.
***
Around the Division:
The Cardinals finished their two-game sweep of the Pirates, winning 8-5. The Brewers finished their two-game sweep at the hands of the Royals, losing 6-4. The Reds lost their third straight to the Giants, 4-0, and are behind 8-0 early in today’s game.
Standings, FanGraphs division championship probabilities (neither takes into account what the Giants are doing to Cincinnati):
1. St. Louis: 25-18, 38.4%
2. Cubs: 21-21, 16.5%
3. Milwaukee: 21-22, 35.6%
4. Cincinnati: 19-22, 9.3%
5. Pittsburgh: 17-25, 0.1%
There’s a new favorite in town. Well. Geographic region, really.
The Pirates start a series in Atlanta tonight. The Brewers and Cardinals are both off, with Milwaukee traveling to Cincinnati and St. Louis preparing to host the Cubs (putting chocolates on the pillows and whatnot).
Up Next:
Game 4
***
Whom:
Cubs vs. Washington
Where:
Wrigley Field
When:
1:20 PM Chicago Time
Weather:
Temperatures in the low 80’s with the wind blowing out to left. Have a day, friends (sorry, Trevor Williams).
Starting Pitchers:
Trevor Williams vs. Joe Ross
The Opponent:
Ross is off to a rough start, with a 5.80 ERA, a 5.53 xERA, and a 5.88 FIP over seven starts. This is worse than his projections, and it’s the product of two terrible outings (18 of his 23 total earned runs have come on just two specific days), but he hasn’t been a sub-5.00 ERA guy since 2016, back when he was a sub-4.00 FIP guy. He’s had a home run issue this season. Let’s hope that continues.
After rolling his ankle last night, Victor Robles is out of the lineup today.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are at -120 to win and +110 to lose, with the over/under at 10½ and favoring the under. That -120 number comes out to something like a 53% win probability when you factor in the vig.
Cubs News:
Heyward’s on the IL with a hamstring strain. Anthony Rizzo’s back in the lineup today. Jed Hoyer had some comments before the game about how hard it is to convince some players to get the coronavirus vaccine. He sounded pessimistic about the team reaching the 85% threshold necessary for the lifting of MLB social distancing restrictions, and he noted the competitive disadvantage it creates when guys knowingly put themselves at risk of catching the highly contagious, rather avoidable virus.
Cubs Thoughts:
We’ve been tracking against this goal from the end of April of being 28-25 at the end of May, and the Cubs aren’t off track to hit that, especially if they win this one. Win this one, win the series in St. Louis, win the series in Pittsburgh, and you’re entering Memorial Day Weekend 26-23 with three against the Reds and one against the Padres left to play before the month is out. It won’t be an easy one, but the bullpen’s fresh outside of maybe Nance and Dillon Maples, and the wind blows out for both teams. Hopefully it’s a fun one. Hopefully it’s a comfortable one for the home team.
