1. The bullpen is still alright.
It wasn’t a great day for the bullpen, but they didn’t perform terribly as much as they just failed to shut the door twice when the door needed shutting. Rex Brothers, Brandon Workman, and Andrew Chafin—all of whom struggled—have shown enough at other times to consider the day just a bad day for each of them individually. Sometimes, you’ll collectively get away with bad days. Sometimes, you won’t.
2. The Cubs didn’t really hit Freddy Peralta.
Though Peralta yielded five hits, none came on a ball hit harder than 95 mph, and the only ball hit that hard by a Cub against the Brewers starter was a Jason Heyward groundout. Peralta still struck out seven, and he walked only one this time (which is mildly terrifying, because if Peralta’s a great third starter for the Brewers they become significantly more dangerous), and the Cubs were probably lucky to get him out of there when they did.
3. Nico Hoerner had another good day.
Hoerner’s double had an xBA of .160, so don’t put too much stock into that, but do appreciate his two walks. Hoerner’s seen 46 pitches already, which isn’t many at all but isn’t that far away from the 298 he saw in 2019 or the 523 he saw in 2020. His chase rate is 25%, compared to a career average of 36.5% and a league average of 28.4%. Hoerner’s great at making contact, both in the zone (90.6% over his career compared to an 82.2% average) and out of the zone (64.3% compared to a 58.9% average). If he can limit his chase rate, it stands to reason he’ll be swinging at more hittable pitches, which should not only help him take more walks but also make his contact better. 46 is a small sample, but it’s already more than a twentieth of the rest of his career. In a few games, we might be able to start taking some meaning from this.
4. There’s a lot to like out of Adbert Alzolay.
It had a rocky ending again—one in which Alzolay could’ve been bailed out and wasn’t, which is in sum kind of his fault and kind of not his fault—but it was another encouraging start for the homegrown arm. He, like Hoerner, doesn’t have a big career-long sample (his 15 innings so far are nearly a third of his career total), so what we’re seeing this year is about as representative as anything else we’ve seen. So far, his walk numbers are down from the past and his strikeouts are in line with the past. He’s looking promising.
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Around the Division:
The Cardinals beat the Reds again, 2-0 this time with a good start from John Gant. The Pirates beat the Twins, 6-2, with old friend Trevor Cahill having a nice day.
Standings, FanGraphs division championship probabilities:
1. Milwaukee (12-8, 57.5%)
T-2. St. Louis (10-10, 16.6%)
T-2. Cubs (10-10, 13.2%)
4. Pittsburgh (10-11, 0.5%)
5. Cincinnati (9-11, 12.2%)
For some broader National League context: San Diego and Atlanta are the wild card favorites (much more so the Padres), with the Cubs in there with the Cardinals, Reds, Phillies, Nationals, and Giants as the next in line, all south of 25% likely to make the playoffs.
Up Next:
Another rubber match with the Brewers. Third one of the month.
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Whom:
Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Where:
Wrigley Field
When:
1:20 PM Chicago Time
Weather:
Cold, wind blowing in. Specifically, temperatures should be in the low 40’s with a 10-15 mile per hour wind coming in from left and/or center.
Starting Pitchers:
Jake Arrieta vs. Brandon Woodruff
The Opponent:
Active pitchers in the National League with projected FIP’s better than Brandon Woodruff’s, per FanGraphs’ depth charts (in no particular order): Corbin Burnes, Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer…that’s it! Carlos Carrasco’s hamstring keeps him off the list, (Did you forget he was on the Mets? Because I keep forgetting he’s on the Mets.) but yeah. Woodruff’s good. Woodruff’s really good.
Christian Yelich is having an MRI on his back.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are +115 underdogs against a -125 line on the Brewers, implying a bit better than a 40% chance of a win. The over/under’s set at 6½. It leans towards the over.
Cubs News:
Nothing too big, unless I’ve missed something. Willson Contreras is getting the day off.
Cubs Thoughts:
The reality of facing a pitcher as good as Woodruff is that if you beat him, you’re probably stealing one. To win the division, the Cubs need to be able to steal ones here and there, but at the same time, this is a guy akin to Max Scherzer, and just because he’s on the opposite end of his arc doesn’t change that. It’s going to be hard to beat him, and given Arrieta’s dances with hard-hit balls, there’s a lot of reason for pessimism today. Aside from Brent Suter and Josh Lindblom, I’d imagine the whole Brewers bullpen is available today, too, though the Feyereisen/Williams/Hader triumvirate (charitable circumstantial inclusion of Feyereisen there) would all be pitching on the second day of a back-to-back. The Brewers are back to Milwaukee for a night game tomorrow against the Marlins, so there’s no reason to believe they’ll hold back. It’s going to be tough to win. Would be nice, but a loss doesn’t mean the Cubs are bad and doesn’t mean the Cubs’ offense is effed again. Maybe the conditions will help bring Arrieta closer to Woodruff’s level. Maybe the Cubs can pinch hit Ryan Tepera and try to get Woodruff tossed.
