1. What to do about Zach Davies?
Zach Davies is not pitching well. He’s not pitching adequately. Through four starts, his ERA sits at 9.47. His FIP is 6.20. He’s walking more batters than he strikes out, and more than twice as many as he’s walked over a single 35+ inning season thus far in his career. His xwOBA is a gut=wrenching .436, and his real wOBA’s at .416.
Davies was not supposed to be a dominant starter. He was supposed to be consistently serviceable. So far, he is not that. And the Cubs now have a question on their hands: Send him to the IL? Send him to the bullpen? Keep trotting him out there to work through it?
The way the immediate schedule works out, the Cubs could start Davies one more time on Saturday in Cincinnati and then go to a four-man rotation until May 17th. Doing that while sidelining Davies, though, wouldn’t let them sideline Adbert Alzolay again to save his innings, and whether weather and other circumstances will allow it remains to be seen. Alec Mills is a starting option, and potentially a good one, so the Cubs could theoretically slot him in for Davies and proceed with business as usual while giving Davies some space out of game situations to figure things out, but again, circumstance may not allow that, and an extra day or two of rest for the rest of the rotation would be worthwhile as well, even for those who are pitching serviceably.
2. The Cubs got to Charlie Morton.
This is significant. The offense did not go quietly after it looked early like they might. Kris Bryant’s grand slam was exactly what you want to see from a potential MVP candidate (how fun is it to say that again?) and Willson Contreras’s home run was one of the fifteen or twenty hardest-hit balls of the season. Some of this, of course, was Morton. Morton got wild. But at the same time, the Cubs stayed in it and gave themselves a chance to win.
3. How big is the trust circle in the bullpen?
So far, Craig Kimbrel is tied for the team lead in fWAR despite only throwing nine innings, while Andrew Chafin is one of four other pitchers with an fWAR at or above 0.1 (the other three are Jake Arrieta, Trevor Williams, and Adbert Alzolay). Are Kimbrel and Chafin the only trustable guys? No. But Kimbrel’s the only one that inspires total confidence right now, and Chafin’s the only one that inspires “he’ll probably be fine” confidence.
Brandon Workman’s struggles to date are a little concerning, especially because for as good as he was in 2019, he was pretty bad over last year’s short season. The initial hope was that he and Chafin would be the best pre-Kimbrel arms available. Right now, he isn’t filling that role. But it’s so early, there are a lot of options, and there have been times pretty much every Cubs reliever has done something positive, making the bullpen not a concern so much as a puzzle. At least right now.
4. Nico Hoerner is doing good things.
Hoerner’s xwOBA is only .395, and I say “only” when referring to what would’ve been a top-ten wOBA in 2019 because Hoerner’s real wOBA is a ridiculous .532. He’s also playing wonderful defense, as is his tendency.
Now, this is the smallest of sample sizes. Eighteen plate appearances. But if Hoerner reverts to roughly his career average hitting for his next hundred plate appearances, he’d still come out of that stretch with a 109 wRC+, which would be a significant breakthrough for the 23-year-old. Overreacting is easy, but at this stage, he really does need to be in the lineup on a near-daily basis.
***
Around the Division:
The Marlins got to Corbin Burnes, taking down the Brewers 8-0 in that series opener. Zack Wheeler outdueled the ageless Adam Wainwright as the Phillies won in St. Louis, 2-1. The Reds broke their losing streak, beating the Dodgers in ten innings in Los Angeles. The Pirates had the day off but start a series with the Royals today.
Standings, FanGraphs division championship probabilities:
1. Milwaukee (13-9, 59.4%)
T-2. St. Louis (11-11, 16.7%)
T-2. Pittsburgh (11-11, 0.6%)
T-4. Cincinnati (10-12, 12.5%)
T-4. Cubs (10-12. 10.8%)
Up Next:
The second game of the four in Atlanta is tonight.
***
Whom:
Cubs vs. Atlanta
Where:
Atlanta
When:
6:20 PM Chicago Time
Weather:
Beautiful again. Temperatures dropping into the 70’s, five-to-ten mph wind blowing in from right center.
Starting Pitchers:
Trevor Williams vs. Ian Anderson
The Opponent:
Anderson was phenomenal last year in his first big-league stint, posting a 1.95 ERA (and 2.54 FIP) over six regular season starts and an even better 0.96 ERA across just shy of 19 postseason innings. He’s gotten solid results through four starts this year as well, with a 3.27 ERA but a 4.27 FIP and a 5.11 xERA. His wildness is just a bit up, his strikeouts are just a bit down, and he’s allowing home runs, which is something he didn’t do much of at all last season. So we’ll see.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are +145 underdogs against a -160 moneyline for Atlanta, which comes out to just shy of a 40% chance to win. The over/under’s at 8½ and leans towards the over.
Cubs News:
Austin Romine went on the IL yesterday with a sprained wrist, resulting in Tony Wolters rejoining the big league club. Rowan Wick and Jonathan Holder are on the 60-day IL now, which opens up 40-man roster spots for Wolters and Trevor Megill, a hulk of a man who made his major league debut last night. Megill was a 2019-20 Rule 5 pick. Jason Adam was sent down to make room for Megill. Javy Báez missed last night’s game with a tight hamstring but was reportedly available off the bench.
Cubs Thoughts:
We said last night would be the hardest night of the series for the Cubs, and we meant that, but tonight’s going to be tough as well. The Cubs need a lot out of Williams to avoid falling down 0-2 in the set, and the bats need to get to Anderson. It’s worth noting that the thought of a Hoerner/Bryant/Rizzo/Contreras/Báez/Bote first six in the order feels pretty good right now. Those first four guys all have a wRC+ at or above 125, Báez is at 108 despite all his struggles, and Bote’s xwOBA is above .380. Add in Heyward as well as Happ or Duffy, and Heyward and Báez are the only below-average xwOBA guys in the lineup. Let’s enjoy that.
