1. This doesn’t change things for Jake Arrieta.
We knew, based on recent seasons, that Arrieta would likely have outings like last night’s. We knew, based on some numbers this season, that Arrieta was likely heading towards an outing like last night’s.
Arrieta did say he had a cut on his thumb that bothered his grip, which is encouraging because that cut should heal and not be a factor in the future (knock on wood), but either way, 2021 Arrieta’s still what we thought he was: an aging, gutsy pitcher whose most likely path is to eat innings and pitch through stuff.
2. Willson Contreras being hurt would be so very bad.
Contreras is the hardest Cub to replace, so if his thigh requires him to miss time, it’s going to be a big blow. P.J. Higgins would figure to be the new backup with Austin Romine on the injured list.
More cynically: If the Cubs don’t make a push for contention, Contreras is probably their most valuable trade chip, given he won’t hit free agency until after next year. Not every injury would destroy that value, but some would.
3. The Cubs might have outplayed the Reds.
The Cubs hit nine balls 95 mph or harder off Wade Miley. The Reds hit ten balls 95 mph or harder off all Cubs pitchers. The Cubs drew six walks. The Reds drew one.
While the Reds did have more home runs, the Cubs were better in virtually every other indicator of whether a team will score runs. Leaving runners on base was part of the problem, but so was luck: The Cubs’ and Reds’ xBA’s were such that the Cubs should have gotten two more hits than their hosts, all else equal. Leaving runners on base? Yes. A problem. But let’s hold off on our fury over that. For now, anyway.
4. Justin Steele and Dillon Maples pitched wonderfully.
Steele could become a guy in this bullpen. So could Maples, though his walks do give cause for pause.
The more likely outcome for each is not to become a dominant setup man. But each could turn out to be effective the majority of the time. That’s the hope.
***
Around the Division:
The Cardinals took the series opener in Pittsburgh, 7-3. The Brewers beat the Dodgers again behind a gem from Freddy Peralta, winning 3-1 and tying the Giants (!!) for the best record in the National League through April.
Standings, FanGraphs division championship probabilities:
1. Milwaukee: 16-10, 61.2%
2. St. Louis: 14-12, 19.4%
T-3. Cincinnati: 12-13, 12.3%
T-3. Pittsburgh: 12-13, 0.6%
5. Cubs: 11-15, 6.4%
Not a great place to start a month.
Up Next:
It’s Zach Davies day.
***
Whom:
Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds
Where:
Cincinnati
When:
3:10 PM Chicago Time
Weather:
Temperatures in the high 60’s, wind blowing in or across from right to left at 10-15 mph.
Starting Pitchers:
Zach Davies vs. Luis Castillo
The Opponent:
Castillo’s off to a rough start, with a 5.29 FIP backing up a 6.29 ERA. On Opening Day, he allowed eight earned runs in less than four innings, striking out zero. He’s followed that up with a gem and three serviceable outings, but he’s still averaging a home run per start, his strikeouts are down 39%, and he’s yielding a .350 xwOBA.
Is something wrong?
It’s hard to say. His velocity’s down, but only to its 2018 levels—a drop of less than two miles per hour—and it’s possible he’s still building up arm strength.
Whatever the case, the Cubs might have a rarely advantageous opportunity this afternoon against one of the best arms in the game.
The Numbers:
I’m seeing the Cubs as a +135 underdog, with the Reds at -165 on the moneyline. The vig’s still wide on this—I’d expect these to condense a little—but the long and short is that the Cubs are about 40% likely to win. The over/under’s at 8½, and it leans towards the over.
Cubs News:
The Contreras thing is the big thing, and there isn’t much news there yet. Beyond that, Brandon Workman cleared waivers and was released. Oof.
Cubs Thoughts:
Hopefully Davies has a great afternoon. Even if he struggles like he’s struggled, though, it’s not impossible to win. Would be difficult, but not impossible. And the Cubs could sure use a win. Even this series up, make it two of three wins instead of seven of eight losses. Castillo’s a righty, so expect a lineup something like: Rizzo (1B), Bryant (LF), Duffy (3B), Báez (SS), Heyward (RF), Marisnick (CF), Hoerner (2B), Wolters (C), Davies (P), but David Bote might get a start, it’s possible we’ll see Ian Happ spell someone, and few would be surprised if Eric Sogard were to play (also, yes, hopefully Contreras is in there—that would be a relief and a half).
