1. The Cubs did show some life.
Joc Pederson’s home run was an awesome moment, and the Cubs did have the winning run on base in the tenth. It was, in the end, a game that could have gone either way.
2. The Cubs did look awful at the plate.
Like we said yesterday, this is part of the Cubs’ deal. They don’t get a lot of hits. Last year, they were 24th in slugging percentage, 18th in on base percentage, and 27th in batting average. The year before that, they were 9th in slugging, 8th in OBP, and 13th in batting average. Way back in 2016, when this was working, they were 10th in slugging, 2nd in OBP, and 14th in batting average. The priority is getting on base, then hitting for power, then hitting for average. If you’re going to prioritize these three in some order, this is the order to use. But there might be an imbalance, and regardless of efficiency, when it’s not working, it’s frustrating to watch.
3. That said, Brandon Woodruff is good.
It wasn’t like they did this against, well, I’m not going to pick on anyone, but Woodruff’s one of the best pitchers in baseball. Against the best pitchers in baseball, days like these do happen.
4. Things should get better.
The Cubs are currently 28th in both slugging and OBP and last in batting average. That doesn’t figure to stay the case (and for what it’s worth, their wRC+, the best overall measure of offensive heft I know of, is better than that of the Brewers).
5. Kyle Hendricks bounced back well.
Hendricks did a good amount to confirm our suspicions that his Opening Day start was an aberration. He should be fine.
6. It hurts to lose after winning Monday.
The Cubs had two chances to take a series against their biggest competition in the division. They took neither. That’s a disappointing missed opportunity.
7. The Cubs aren’t all that off-track.
We set a target of 14-12 or 15-11 in April. To hit the lower of those two marks, the Cubs would need to manage records like the following the rest of the month:
Against PIT: 2-1
Against MIL: 3-3
Against ATL/NYM: 5-5
Against CIN: 1-0
That’s not unmanageable, and while it might not leave the Cubs in first place, it’d have them on pace for 87 wins, which well might be enough to win the division (and a month in which ten games are played against two of the four best teams in the National League is not representative of the overall difficulty of the Cubs’ schedule, implying their schedule-adjusted pace would probably be closer to 89 or 90 wins).
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Around the Division:
The Reds popped the Pirates again, 11-4, and the Cardinals finished off a sweep of their own over the Marlins with a 7-0 triumph. The Cardinals start a three-game set with the Brewers today. The Reds are traveling to Arizona, where they’ll play three against the Diamondbacks over the weekend.
The standings are as follows, alongside FanGraphs’s division championship probabilities:
1. Cincinnati (5-1, 33.4%)
2. St. Louis (4-2, 17.2%)
T-3. Milwaukee (3-3, 37.2%)
T-3. Cubs (3-3, 12.2%)
5. Pittsburgh (1-5, 0.0%)
Condolences to the Pirates on falling below the one-in-one-thousand mark in division championship likelihood.
Up Next:
The Cubs are the guests for the Pirates’ home opener today before a day off tomorrow.
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Whom:
Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Where:
Pittsburgh
When:
12:35 PM Chicago Time
Weather:
Temperatures in the 70’s, small chance of rain during the game, wind blowing in from center at 10-15 mph.
The Starting Pitchers:
Jake Arrieta vs. Tyler Anderson
The Opponent:
The Cubs saw Anderson on Saturday and had one of their better offensive days of the young season, scoring three against the lefty over five innings while notching five hits.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are a -140 favorite, implying they’re a little more than 55% likely to get the road victory. The over/under’s set at 8½ with the odds favoring the over.
Cubs News:
Jake Marisnick gets the start in center as the Cubs face a lefty, and Ian Happ’s the odd man out. Beyond that, the first string’s in action, with Willson Contreras back behind the plate after his day off yesterday.
Cubs Thoughts:
The offense is both 1) concerning and 2) not as concerning as the first week has implied. Hopefully it breaks out today, or at least scores five, gets the Cubs a win, and eases some concerns.
I’d guess Alec Mills is unavailable today after throwing 22 pitches across portions of two innings yesterday, but I’d guess the rest of the bullpen is good to go heading into tomorrow’s off-day.
