1. Ah, yes. The lack of hits.
This is going to be an issue for the Cubs at times, just as it’s been for a few years, and while we can hope for it to get better, it isn’t going to change overnight. Sometimes the Cubs don’t get very many hits. It’s a byproduct of their approach, it’s a byproduct of their roster construction…it’s just part of the deal. To be fair to Freddy Peralta, he’s hard to hit, and to be fair to the Cubs, they did draw four walks against him, but still…bad night at the plate. XBA implies the Cubs only should’ve gotten three hits, too, so it’s not like they were smacking the ball and having bad luck.
2. Adbert Alzolay had a fine night.
Not a great outing, but he didn’t get rocked or anything.
3. Nice mop-up work by the bullpen.
It would seem Ryan Tepera and Dillon Maples are the only two unavailable today for the rubber match. Maples and Dan Winkler keeping their pitch counts down and keeping it scoreless might end up having meant a lot.
4. Nice to see some good defense out of David Bote.
Bote’s no Nico Hoerner defensively, and he’d had some struggles in the field over the first four games. I don’t know how range and positioning affected his plays last night (the possibility always exists that certain spectacular-looking plays would look easy for a better defender—call this the Derek Jeter rule or something), but it’s not a bad thing that he made some great-looking plays, and it’s probably a good thing.
5. Nobody was wrong in the Willson Contreras incident.
It’s fair for Contreras to be pissed that he got hit two games in a row, especially since one hit him in the helmet. It’s also not any indictment of the Brewers or Brad Boxberger that Contreras got hit again. All’s well, carry on.
6. This makes game three rather significant.
If the Cubs lose again, it’s an opportunity missed. If they win, it’s an opportunity taken. No in-between, and to be completely honest, I think a lot of us underweight the significance of April games. These move the needle on postseason probability.
***
Around the Division:
The Cardinals beat the Marlins, 4-2, and the Reds smoked the Pirates, 14-1, and are on their way to doing the same today, as they lead 5-0 in the second as I type this. The Cardinals conclude their series with the Marlins this afternoon.
Here are the standings, along with FanGraphs’s division championship probability entering today:
1. Cincinnati (4-1, 32.0%)
T-2. St. Louis (3-2, 16.5%)
T-2. Cubs (3-2, 15.5%)
4. Milwaukee (2-3, 35.9%)
5. Pittsburgh (1-4, 0.1%)
The loss and the Reds/Cardinals wins drop the Cubs by nearly ten percentage points, in case you were wondering how meaningful April baseball is.
Up Next:
The rubber match.
***
Whom:
Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Where:
Wrigley Field
When:
1:20 PM Chicago Time
Weather:
In the 70’s, with a chance of a mid-game storm. Wind’s blowing out to left.
The Starting Pitchers:
Kyle Hendricks vs. Brandon Woodruff
The Opponent:
Woodruff’s a great pitcher, with ERA’s of 3.61, 3.62, and 3.05 over the last three seasons and similar FIP’s. Injuries have been his issue, but when he’s healthy, he’s hard to hit, so the Cubs are going to have their work cut out for them offensively.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are a -105 underdog with the Brewers at -115 to win, meaning it’s nearly a tossup but leans towards the Brewers. Over/under’s at 9.
Cubs News:
Nothing too big aside from today’s lineup, which we have. Willson Contreras is finally getting a day off, so we’ll see Tony Wolters catching Hendricks and batting eighth. Eric Sogard gets the start at second base and bats second. The outfield is, from right to left, Jason Heyward, Ian Happ, Joc Pederson, so Jake Marisnick is on the bench today. Woodruff’s a righty.
Cubs Thoughts:
Big game. Not a lot else to say.
