Ok, not as fun as the first two nights, but still fun.
What Happened
It was all Lance McCullers. It was all Shane McClanahan.
That’s not entirely true. Some good positioning by the Rays’ defense kept McClanahan out of trouble in the second. Both offenses in question jumped on the opposing starter. It was a team effort.
But neither pitcher allowed a run. Neither pitcher walked a batter. Both pitchers led neat and tidy Game 1 victories, or what passes for neat and tidy in October. Now, each team has a chance to effectively put the series away today.
Someone texted me after the Rays’ first inning and said, “Can you write a primer on how the rays do this for dummies,” and I said, “That’s a good idea, except I’m not positive I know.” I don’t know. I do not know how the Rays do this. My impression is that they’re excellent at identifying and developing talent, but I don’t know how exactly they do that. My impression is that they’re excellent at finding little things within games—defensive positioning, pitcher usage, etc.—to maximize win probability, but I don’t know how exactly they do that.
One thing I’m curious about is what the Rays’ analytics payroll looks like relative to that of other MLB franchises, and what their scouting payroll looks like. Is this a matter of investing dollars where they make a bigger impact? My impression is that very few data analysts in the world make seven figures a year, so if you’re willing to pay some analyst that outrageous sum, you could theoretically get thirteen of those folks for the cost of one Nelson Cruz, and it wouldn’t be subject to any luxury tax considerations (not that those are an issue for the Rays).
This is all speculative. The Rays might not be spending any more or less on analytics and scouting (and development and so on and so forth) than anyone else. But I wonder if their might be an inefficiency there. If the market’s $/WAR cost is roughly eight million dollars…could you get that out of an analyst for cheaper?
The Heroes
In addition to McCullers, McClanahan, and the McRays’ Front Office, you had both age and beauty making waves. Nelson Cruz homered off the catwalk in St. Petersburg while Wander Franco hit two big doubles and Randy Arozarena homered and stole home. Michael Brantley had two hits for the Astros while Yordan Alvarez crushed a double and a home run. In terms of FanGraphs WPA, McCullers led the way for the day at 0.24, followed by McClanahan at 0.23, Alvarez at 0.14, Jake Meyers (two hits for the Astros) at 0.12, and Franco at 0.10. The bullpens were a decidedly smaller factor than they’d been the last two nights.
What It Means
The Dodgers are still your World Series favorites, 24.7% likely to take the crown (per FanGraphs), but the Astros are now up to 21.0%. And to our “we don’t know how the Rays are doing this” point, they’re still graded as less likely to win it all than the Red Sox (though they are now clear Division Series favorites).
Other Notes
- Lance Lynn lasted just 76 pitches, which is great for his chances of coming back on short rest but bad for the White Sox, who might not want him pitching on short rest but now might be tempted.
- Some late pressure by the White Sox prompted Dusty Baker to turn to Ryan Pressly, who’ll still be available tonight but will be that much more fatigued.
- Garrett Richards and Nick Pivetta ate innings for the Red Sox, and Eduardo Rodriguez throwing just 41 pitches means he’ll be available in relief in Game 3 if desired.
- Kyle Schwarber had the hardest-hit ball of the day, an eighth-inning single, and hit another ball 107 mph as well.
***
Now, today, in chronological order. Astros/White Sox first:
The Basics
Where: Minute Maid Park
When: 2:07 PM EDT
Broadcast: MLB Network
Starting Pitchers: Framber Valdez (HOU), Lucas Giolito (CWS)
Odds: HOU -118; CWS +108; o/u 8 (u -120) [English translation: The Astros are about 53% likely to win; the White Sox are roughly 47% likely to win; the expected number of runs scored is closer to eight than seven, but not by a lot]
The Details
Giolito has a 3.79 FIP and a 3.29 xERA, with projections around that level as well. Valdez has a 4.01 FIP and a 3.78 xERA, and that’s also in line with his projections. Giolito’s probably better, with a ceiling high enough to give the White Sox a chance (especially with the bullpen advantage), but the Astros’ offensive might is enough to give them the narrow edge.
José Abreu’s health is still a question. He isn’t 100%, but it’s marginal enough that it might not matter. He had two hits yesterday but neither was smoked.
The Stars
Will this be a moment for Giolito? Keep an eye on Pressly as well, who’ll likely be leaned upon heavily if the Astros have a close lead late. For the White Sox, the bats are there, it’s just a matter of which, if any, will come through.
***
Next up, Atlanta @ Milwaukee
The Basics
Where: American Family Field (formerly Miller Park)
When: 4:37 PM EDT
Broadcast: TBS
Starting Pitchers: Corbin Burnes (MIL), Charlie Morton (ATL)
Odds: MIL -152; ATL +142; o/u 7 (o -115) [English translation: the Brewers are roughly 59% likely to win and 41% likely to lose; the expected number of runs scored is the tinest bit over 7]
The Details
If you lower the innings threshold to 90, to include Jacob deGrom, you know who had the best FIP in baseball this year?
It’s Jacob deGrom.
But behind him is Corbin Burnes, whose 1.67 mark over 167 innings was masterful. He’s a force of nature, striking out 8.4 batters per start while walking just 1.4.
Morton isn’t too bad himself, though. The 37-year-old enters with a 3.17 FIP and 3.32 xERA, both in the league’s top echelon. He figures to give Atlanta a chance, especially against a Brewers lineup that ranked only 23rd in baseball in wRC+ this year.
Scoring runs has been a problem for Milwaukee, with Christian Yelich hardly league-average at the dish this year and few stalwarts around him. Willy Adames was the team’s best position player on the season, racking up 3.9 fWAR after his trade from Tampa Bay. It’s a lean Crew.
In the other dugout, Atlanta ranked just 13th in wRC+, and even since August began (and Atlanta heated up, wins-wise), they’re only 12th in baseball in the metric. They miss Ronald Acuña Jr. Who wouldn’t? They also miss Marcell Ozuna, though the survivor in that case is much more important than any baseball team.
Still, they’ve got Freddie Freeman. They’ve got Ozzie Albies. Austin Riley had a massive year. They’re a better offense than the Brewers, which is good for them, because the Brewers have them beat on the mound.
Even without Devin Williams, the Brewers have a lot going on in the ‘pen, with Josh Hader probably the best reliever in the game right now and Brent Suter, Aaron Ashby, and possibly presumed Game 3 starter Freddy Peralta all capable of contributing good innings. That said, while Atlanta can’t match Hader, it’s got a good relief corps of its own, led by Will Smith and backed up by A.J. Minter, Tyler Matzek, Luke Jackson, Chris Martin, and Jesse Chavez (if you know these bullpens well and are confused by whom I’m listing, I’m going off of projections more than year-to-date results, for whatever it’s worth).
The Stars
Freeman, Albies, Yelich. All big names. Burnes should be a bigger star than he is, and if he and Peralta and Brandon Woodruff can be an effective 1-2-3 punch this October, he might bloom in a big way in the national sports consciousness. Those second-level Brewers relievers might be the key, though. They’re going to get innings this series. They’re going to get big innings. And with Williams out, someone might be stepping up.
***
Red Sox/Rays, Game 2:
The Basics
Where: Tropicana Field
When: 7:02 PM EDT
Broadcast: FS1
Starting Pitchers: Shane Baz (TBR), Chris Sale (BOS)
Odds: TBR -135; BOS +125; o/u 7½ (u -120) [English translation: The Rays are about 56% likely to win; the Red Sox are about 44% likely to win; the expected number of runs scored is something like 7.3]
The Details
The Red Sox need to bounce back, and they might need a lot out of Sale to do that. He’s been good since returning—the strikeouts are there, the walks and home runs are towards his rough end career-wise but aren’t bad—but he hasn’t been his peak self.
Opposite Sale is Baz, another top prospect in the Tampa Bay organization. He’s made only three MLB starts, but he boasted a 1.96 FIP at AA this year and a 3.32 at AAA. FanGraphs projects him only at 4.89 in the metric, but through 13.1 innings, his xERA’s at 2.55, so we’ll see. I’d imagine he’ll have a quick hook on him, with the Rays managing to only really burn J.P. Feyereisen last night (who’d still probably be available in a pinch).
J.D. Martinez is on the roster, but will he play? It might not be as big of a question as it seems—the fallout from his absence does have some defensive upside—but he does change that lineup for the better, so it’s not at all unimportant.
The Stars
Will Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers come through? Devers has an arm issue. Can Kyle Schwarber and Alex Verdugo pick up the slack? Can someone deeper in the lineup step up?
For the Rays, Arozarena demonstrated his electricity last night, but Cruz demonstrated that he’s not going anywhere himself, 41 years old and still mashing. He’s never won a ring, which could become a storyline.
***
Finally, the big one: Dodgers/Giants. One of history’s great rivalries, finally played in the postseason.
The Basics
Where: Oracle Park
When: 9:37 PM EDT
Broadcast: TBS
Starting Pitchers: Logan Webb (SF), Walker Buehler (LA)
Odds: LA -120; SF +100; o/u 7 (o -120) [English translation: The Dodgers are about 52% likely to win; the Giants are about 48% likely to win; the expected number of runs scored is something like 7.2]
The Details
The Giants are without Brandon Belt, who fractured his thumb at the end of the regular season. He will be missed. But between Kris Bryant, Buster Posey, Mike Yastrzemski, Brandon Crawford, and others, there’s still some skill in this lineup. It’s not that of the Dodgers, but at the same time…it was better across the regular season.
That’s kind of the question for the Giants: Can they keep doing this? It’s been the question the whole season, and so far, the answer has been a loud, defiant, “Yes.” We’ll see.
On the mound, Logan Webb comes in with a 2.72 FIP and 3.22 xERA, both excellent. Just 24 years old, he really came into his own this year, pitching some of his best games down the stretch. He doesn’t have Walker Buehler’s name power, and Buehler had a sensational year, posting a similar FIP and xERA over way more innings, but he can match up on paper with his opponent.
We talked on Tuesday and then again yesterday about the depth of the Dodgers’ bullpen, but here again the Giants might be able to match them. Tyler Rogers, Jake McGee, José Álvarez, Dominic Leone, and even Jay Jackson and Kervin Castro (I haven’t seen the playoff roster yet, so apologies if one or more of these guys are left off) are sub-4.00-FIP-projected guys. They haven’t pitched in as many big moments as the Dodgers’ guns have, but they may well be able to match them pitch for pitch, and they may well have to match them pitch for pitch.
The Stars
They’re all over the Dodgers lineup, but for the Giants it’s a collection of smaller names. Yes, Bryant and Posey and Crawford and Yastrzemski are notable, but they’re not Mookie Betts. They haven’t been here as recently.
Names that might pop? Those Giants bullpenners. Odds are, they’ll be throwing some high-leverage innings this series.
