1. Craig Kimbrel did it.
It was a rough situation. Bases loaded. One out. Eighth inning. Two-run lead. And Craig Kimbrel shut the door. The closer struck out two straight hitters to get out of the mess, then notched another K in a 1-2-3 ninth, and all was well.
I don’t want to get too into whether Kimbrel is “back,” partially because I don’t want to think about his 2019 and he seemed to have at least a little bad luck in 2020, but for whatever it’s worth, I did feel rather confident once he entered the game, and I’m guessing I wasn’t alone in that feeling.
2. Hits!
The hits came in droves, and XBA indicates it wasn’t lucky breaks. It was especially nice to see the core—Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javy Báez—each get two knocks, but credit as well to Jake Marisnick, who’s been successful at the plate so far, and to David Bote, who hit a few balls hard.
3. Don’t worry about the runners left on base.
I’m struggling to find these numbers now, but I have a vague sense of having seen some damning stuff about the Cubs’ production with runners on base the last few years. Again, I’m not finding it now, but even if it’s a significant trend, now isn’t the time to worry about the Cubs turning twelve baserunners into only four runs. Also, that isn’t a terrible conversion rate—it looks worse on the line score because the hit/walk ratio was high.
4. Jake Arrieta dodged trouble again.
Another successful start out of the righty, but not without some qualms.
I like to use two different “true performance” stats with pitchers. One is FIP, which is measured on the ERA scale and says how well a pitcher would have performed with average left-on-base numbers and average outs on balls in play. The other is xwOBA, a Statcast measure of how strong a pitcher’s results are expected to be based on the quality of contact allowed.
FIP says Arrieta’s been great. 2.72 FIP. That’s awesome.
xwOBA says Arrieta’s been bad. .368 xwOBA. That’s a point off of what Ian Happ posted in real wOBA last season as the Cubs’ best hitter. Arrieta has been raising average hitters to the level of Ian Happ in terms of contact quality.
Which is going to be more predictive going forward? I don’t know. There’s reason for encouragement, and reason for discouragement, and overall, it’s probably best to enjoy what Arrieta’s done his first two times out.
***
Around the Division:
The Cardinals took the opener from the Brewers in St. Louis, 3-1. Those two are off today, but the Reds open their weekend set in Arizona.
Standings as follows, with FanGraphs’s division championship probabilities:
1. Cincinnati (5-1, 27.2%)
2. St. Louis (5-2, 24.3%)
3. Cubs (4-3, 15.8%)
4. Milwaukee (3-4, 32.7%)
5. Pittsburgh (1-6, 0.1%)
Very open race.
Up Next:
Zach Davies vs. Mitch Keller tomorrow evening in Pittsburgh. Day off today, which I’m sure is good after two straight day games.
