The way the bubble’s currently comprised, at least in our model’s eyes, there’s a big gap between the second-to-last team in and the last team in. The second-to-last, Colorado State, has a median seeding of 48 in this morning’s 10,000 simulations. The last, Memphis, is at 52, as is Western Kentucky, as is Boise State, as nearly are Penn State, Saint Mary’s, Michigan State, and Saint Louis, all of whom are at 53 or 54.
I say this to say that while Memphis appears in our updated bracketology this morning, they don’t occupy a linear space between the field and those who miss the cut.
At the same time, though, this is big for Memphis. The Tigers didn’t do anything too impressive yesterday (they beat UCF by eight points) and the outlook from here isn’t great (they have to play Houston today), but there’s a chance. As there is for many of those others near the field. There’s a chance.
Today’s other movement.
Moving Up: Nobody
No one rose more than one seed line.
Moving Down: Oregon
Is Oregon State going to do this? Whether they do or don’t, they inflicted some major damage upon their archrivals last night, knocking the Ducks down from a projected 6-seed to an 8-seed.
Moving In: Memphis, Buffalo (auto-bid)
With their upset of Toledo, Buffalo becomes the MAC favorite.
Moving Out: SMU, Toledo (auto-bid)
And SMU, who’d been a bit of a mystery after playing only 15 regular season games, drops out after losing to Cincinnati in their AAC Tournament opener.
***
Conference tournament probabilities, for those with more than two teams remaining:
AAC
Houston: 69.3%
Memphis: 14.3%
Wichita State: 12.3%
Cincinnati: 4.1%
Big Ten
Michigan: 35.8%
Illinois: 26.4%
Iowa: 24.7%
Ohio State: 13.2%
Reminder: This doesn’t account for any injuries.
SEC
Alabama: 36.1%
Arkansas: 26.6%
Tennessee: 20.8%
LSU: 16.5%
