In a realist sense, it’s merciful that Week 1 doesn’t matter so much anymore in college football. Notre Dame still has a better chance than not to make the College Football Playoff. Notre Dame stands a pretty good chance of hosting a playoff game. Notre Dame should still be favored in every remaining game before a prospective quarterfinal, with an idle week ahead before our biggest or second-biggest remaining test.
In a purist sense, it stinks that Week 1 doesn’t matter so much anymore in college football. On Sunday night, I’m not sure Notre Dame played to win.
Last year in College Station, Notre Dame had something to prove. The Irish were an underdog, and they came out ready to punch someone in the mouth, taking Marcus Freeman’s lead from that moment in the tunnel until Kyle Field emptied as the clock ticked down. This year in Miami, Notre Dame had nothing to prove. The Irish were a favorite, and they played a conservative football game, doing what Texas did in Columbus and what Indiana tried to do in South Bend last winter: Avoid the negative backlash a blowout would have inspired.
It’s hard to criticize the strategy behind this approach. Optics are a big deal right now in college football, with the media driving committee opinions and the media spending way too much time on Twitter. This year’s team has different ingredients than last year’s did, too. Riley Leonard was experienced last year, and he was playing with an experienced roster. A meltdown wasn’t a risk when Freeman elevated the temperature. This year, a meltdown would have set a hard tone for Carr in particular to overcome. For college football players, noise is more persistent now than it’s ever been before. It’s hard to keep one’s head down when one’s surrounded by screens on every step across campus. Cool, calm, and collected was the name of the game, and it nearly worked. Miami got comfortable, Notre Dame came roaring back, and the Irish head into the rest of the season 0–1 but not a punchline. The undefeated dream is dead, but we knew this wasn’t going to be some historically dominant team. Marcus Freeman saved his bullets. He kept his powder dry. There is plenty to play for, and the march towards 2027 remains mostly on pace.
Mistakes – Coach Category
If there was one strategic error, it seems to have come in conditioning. How in the world was Anthonie Knapp unable to physically complete the first football game of the year? Last year, so much was made of Notre Dame’s ability to withstand the East Texas heat. This year, Miami’s humidity got to the big fellas, and it got to no one more so than Knapp, a hoped-for All-American at left tackle.
If there was a second, many would argue it came in the offensive gameplan. Mike Denbrock was committed to the RPO and let Carr make his reads. Miami predictably pushed Carr to throw rather than hand the ball off to Jeremiyah Love. Miami decided to keep the ball away from Love. Against an RPO, defenses can kind of do that. Show their hand to a quarterback, and he’ll most times make the read the defense wants him to make. Notre Dame did have success when Jadarian Price was on the field. I’m not Dan Casey when it comes to X’s and O’s, but my assumption is that when Price was the running back, Miami stopped selling out to stop the run.
Should Denbrock have pounded the rock? Maybe so. Maybe that would have helped the line, too, one whose few returners are more accustomed to blocking for the run after a season spent with an extra fullback playing quarterback. But only one drive was a complete failure in that the plays called didn’t work, and some of that was probably execution. I’m probably overthinking this, but maybe it was Price who needed more touches.
Mistakes – Player Category
The other two failed drives were turnovers, and one of those was a bad read by Carr, who I’m guessing—and I’m ready to be corrected if I’m wrong—read the front seven and threw out wide automatically rather than continue his progression and/or tuck the ball and run. Carr’s best plays were his most decisive. That play wasn’t decisive. It was autopilot.
Defensively, yes, Adon Shuler should have shattered CJ Daniels’s ribcage rather than allow him to make the best catch we might see all college football season. It’s also hard to blame him for looking for the pick there, and I think we can trust him enough to not worry about it happening again.
Weaknesses
Eli Raridon had a terrible game, including committing the holding penalty that Greg McElroy attributed to Knapp. That isn’t to rip on Raridon, but he was the most glaring visible issue for Notre Dame, and that’s despite Knapp’s body giving out on him. Hopefully Raridon is better than what he showed. If not, we’ll need someone else to step up at tight end. (And given the lack of depth there, we probably need someone to step up at tight end regardless.)
The defensive line got pushed around, which makes sense considering the graduations of Howard Cross and Rylie Mills. Until we can develop those kinds of players again, that’s probably an area to work around and one where the transfer portal might be able to help this offseason.
Prognosis – Team
The team is fine. It’s a top-ten team with top-ten talent, or at least that’s what we think. College football’s talent groupings go:
Plane 1: Ohio State, Georgia, Texas, and Alabama
Plane 1.5: Oregon
Plane 2: LSU, Miami, Notre Dame, Clemson, Texas A&M, Penn State, etc. etc. etc.
Programs who overindex on the transfer portal—Miami, Florida State, and Mississippi come to mind—can sometimes out-talent their raw metrics, but at the end of the day, speed and size and strength are mostly immutable. They only dictate ceiling, not floor (shoutout Bama), but it’s impossible to be an historically dominant team without top-level talent. As we said on Sunday morning, Notre Dame doesn’t have it yet. Losing on the road to another team in that category isn’t surprising. It’s sad—this is our first routine loss since arguably the USC game in 2022—but that’s life, and that’s football. If you’re not good enough, you can’t be surprised when you’re not good enough.
Prognosis – Season
It’s easy to overweight wanting your opponents to do well. At the end of the day, the quality of Miami’s season is unlikely to make a difference in final assessments of Notre Dame. Notre Dame will make the playoff if they win out, and Notre Dame does have a chance at 10–2. It’s that 10–2 scenario—a reasonable possibility but not something overwhelmingly likely—where it could help if Miami went 12–1 or 13–0. I’m worried that they already played their best game, because focus is so hard to historically maintain at that place. I’m more worried about beating Texas A&M, USC, and the rest of them.
I will say: Making the playoff is probably necessary if we’re going to maintain the recruiting momentum. Texas A&M’s a huge game now. Good. That’s what college football is supposed to be.
**
