A way I’m thinking of the College Football Playoff picture right now is that a class of teams has emerged that isn’t exactly made up of “contenders,” but is still fully in the frame. They’re unlikely to make the playoffs—single-digit percentage probabilities, I’d estimate (nope, no model yet from us, still on its way)—but they have the path and are estimated to be good enough that it’s not outrageous to think they could. The contenders—Alabama, Georgia, Oregon, Oklahoma, Clemson, Ohio State—those teams have the path and are estimated to be good enough that it’s not outrageous to think they will. But these teams? Well, they could.
Who is it, then? I’d opine that it’s made up of Penn State, Iowa, Michigan, Notre Dame, Cincinnati, and Florida. Each of these has a qualm about it—Penn State has to play Ohio State in Columbus, Iowa and Michigan haven’t been great in recent years, Notre Dame’s been struggling to beat mediocre teams, Cincinnati’s a Group of Five team, Florida just missed its chance against Alabama—but these qualms are less disqualifying than those of, say, Texas A&M, who might not be that good and plays in the same division as the Crimson Tide (not to mention two other “teams of interest,” whom we’ll get to in a second). Your mileage will vary on who’s in this class, but it exists. If any of these six teams made the playoff, the reasonable response would be, “Yeah, ok, that makes sense.” Teams below them? They’d be surprising.
Of course, there are plenty of relevant teams below these top two classes. I called these “teams of interest” in the parenthetical above. Texas A&M, Arkansas, and Mississippi are in this class. Iowa State and Michigan State are in this class. BYU is in this class. These are the teams that are neither contenders nor factors themselves right now, but could become factors, and perhaps more importantly shape the paths of the contenders and factors around them. Their playoff probability may be effectively zero. But they’re good enough and present enough that you’re going to notice them.
Anyway, without anything massive for the playoff picture this weekend, I was zooming out a bit and thought of that, and thought it bore mentioning. Let’s talk about the games now.
The Big Ones
There are two games this week that clearly matter. One features a factor and a team of interest. The other features two teams of interest. We’ll go in chronological order.
Notre Dame vs. Wisconsin – 12:00 PM EDT, FOX
The Irish might not be good enough. It might not matter. After this three-week stretch (Wisconsin in Chicago, Cincinnati in South Bend, Virginia Tech in Blacksburg), Notre Dame’s road looks about as open as you could ask a road to look. Being Notre Dame, they’re viable despite what this says about their schedule, which is its customary few-easy-games-but-no-real-knockouts self.
For Wisconsin, it’s a chance to get its feet back under it. The Penn State loss and the slop that surrounded it wiped the Badgers from our minds, but their place as a Big Ten West team and Ohio State looking at least borderline suspect so far have them hanging around the fringes of things. I don’t think anyone sees this ending all that well in Madison (“this” being the season, not today’s game), but it’s early enough to hope, and if they make Notre Dame look like they might be able to make Notre Dame look, they’ll set up a fun one next week at home against Michigan.
Texas A&M vs. Arkansas – 3:30 PM EDT, CBS
Another neutral-site one…dang.
Texas A&M would love to be a factor, but they were so bad against Colorado and figure to be such massive underdogs against Alabama that it’s hard to take them that seriously at this point. They have a bit of an 11-1 path, but it’d be a cheap one, and it might be one where the good wins aren’t good enough to get the committee to choose them over, say, a two-loss Power Five champion whose losses came against top ten teams.
Arkansas, meanwhile, is playing with house money. They’re not supposed to be here yet, so if they win, great, but if they lose, oh well they’ll get A&M again next year. They already beat Texas, and I’d guess a not-that-small portion of Pig fans would prefer beating the big guys to beating the medium guys, even if A&M’s the better team right now. As long as Arkansas can hang in there in the SEC and throw its weight around against a few schools used to throwing their own weight around in Fayetteville, it’ll have been a good season.
That all said, the winner of this is Alabama’s deputy in the West, and that’s not the worst place to be.
(P.S. I think I’ve said this game is in Fayetteville before—sorry about that, I somehow forgot about the…is this the AT&T Classic? Is that what they call it? Is it the Southwest Showdown? I do not know the name of this game.)
Contenders, Factors
Of the contenders, Oklahoma, Clemson, Georgia, and Oregon all play conference games, with the Sooners hosting West Virginia in the most interesting of a rather boring slate. Clemson visits NC State, where the line is small but it’d be rather startling if Clemson had too much trouble controlling the win probability graph. Georgia goes to Vanderbilt. Oregon hosts Arizona. Meanwhile, Alabama and Ohio State are making the Group of Five rounds, hosting Southern Miss and Akron, respectively.
Florida and Michigan play conference games as well, hosting Tennessee and Rutgers in games one would hope a playoff hopeful would win handily. In that sense, those are tests of a sort. Iowa hosts Colorado State. Penn State hosts a good-for-the-FCS-but-not-good Villanova team. Cincinnati is off.
Six More Fun Ones
This is heavily Heartland, but the Coastal Division and the Pac-12 South are just too sad right now.
Texas Tech @ Texas – 12:00 PM EDT, ABC
Iowa State @ Baylor – 3:30 PM EDT, FOX
Kansas State @ Oklahoma State – 7:00 PM EDT, B12N/ESPN+
Between the six of them, these guys have lost twice in nonconference play, with BYU still looming on Baylor’s calendar. Iowa State lost to Iowa. Texas lost to Arkansas. That’s respectable.
We don’t know much about these teams, either. They’re all close enough to one another, along with even West Virginia and TCU, that from a mile-high view they’re one and the same. There are differences, of course—it’s a long way from Iowa State to Texas Tech—but it’s so incremental between teams and there’s so much unknown and Oklahoma is so far ahead of them and Kansas is so far behind that it’s hard to differentiate the league within itself at this point. There’s a lot of settling out to be done, and the middle of the conference is open enough to get a surprising factor, especially if whoever beats up their brothers manages to sneak one over against OU down the line.
SMU @ TCU – 12:00 PM EDT, FS1
SMU’s something of a team of interest itself as one of Cincinnati’s best hopes to be a top 25 opponent once or twice as the Bearcats chase their heavily-Notre-Dame-reliant playoff-crashing dreams. TCU’s another one of those Big 12 unbeatens (the Big 12 has quietly had a successful few weeks below the water line). There’s a difference in football ethos here, too, even if the schools themselves are lookalikes.
UTSA @ Memphis – 3:30 PM EDT, ESPNU
Eventually, a Texan football program has to be good, right?
It’s not inconceivable that UTSA could rise as a mid-major. They play in one of the biggest cities in the country. They have enough alumni who care that the scrap over the Come and Take It flag registered a little outside the state of Texas. They’re solid right now.
Memphis, meanwhile, is alongside SMU as a team of interest for Cincinnati. If the Group of Five had its own playoff played in November (which it would if the Group of Five was just a little bit more honest with the universe), this would have G5 Playoff Implications™. They don’t do that, so it doesn’t, but that’s how close it is to being meaningful.
Nebraska @ Michigan State – 7:00 PM EDT, FS1
Bill Connelly’s SP+ (which is what makes us so high on Michigan, by the way) thinks Nebraska isn’t too bad, and it tracks with what we’ve seen in their losses. The Huskers had some awful luck at times against both Illinois and Oklahoma, and the totality of their performance in Norman was somewhat impressive. They’re not going to ever be a factor this year themselves, but they could at least demonstrate some progress, and this is one of the more winnable opportunities for them in that endeavor.
Meanwhile, Michigan State’s gotta know how high the odds are stacked against them, but the schedule’s easy enough early that, as we’ve said a few times now, they could enter the Michigan weekend unbeaten, which would set up quite a scene.
Viewing Schedule
The neutral-site games have established themselves well here to help you through the first half of the day. In the evening, I’d personally recommend Tennessee/Florida (we’re in the process of giving the Vols a long look for a small wager), with Nebraska/Michigan State a solid fallback plan. Late night options include Oregon and BYU probably annihilating human beings who once thought themselves of a kind with those who play for Oregon and BYU. Settles the stomach a bit before bed.
