College Football’s Conference Tiebreakers, With One Week to Go

Before we begin: Credit to the CAA, who produced a tiebreaker dream yesterday. I won’t spell out the details here (I tried, but it turned into a very long paragraph), but a capped version of point differential was the deciding factor.

Now. Where each FBS conference championship race stands after games of Saturday, November 18^th. Details below, but we’ll start with the high level. As always, you can find our most recent tiebreaker rundown here.

• ACC: Florida State will play Louisville in the ACC Championship.
• Big 12: Texas has probably clinched a spot in the Big 12 Championship. Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, and Kansas State are probably the only ones alive for the second spot. We say “probably” because the Big 12 wrote its tiebreakers extraordinarily poorly and is not being clear about how to interpret them. The Big 12 needs to put out a 128-scenario list of who makes its conference championship. We await that list.
• Big Ten: The winner of Ohio State vs. Michigan will win the East. Iowa has clinched the West.
• Pac-12: Washington has clinched a spot in the Pac-12 Championship. Oregon controls its fate, but Arizona is in with a win and an Oregon loss.
• SEC: Georgia will play Alabama in the SEC Championship.
• American: The winner of Tulane and UTSA is in. SMU is in with a win. Tulane is probably in with an SMU loss. Tiebreakers, to qualify and to host, will be determined by the CFP Rankings if possible, or by a composite of computer rankings.
• Mountain West: UNLV is probably safely in and will probably be the home team. Air Force, San Jose State, and Boise State are vying for the second spot.
• Sun Belt: Troy has clinched the West. Barring a surprising pivot by the conference re: JMU, the East is down to Coastal Carolina and Appalachian State, with Coastal controlling its fate. Troy can clinch home-field advantage with a win this week, barring that surprise pivot. With a Troy loss, a win by Coastal or App State, and no pivot, computers would decide home-field advantage.
• MAC: Toledo will play Miami–Ohio in the MAC Championship.
• Conference USA: Barring a shocking pivot by the conference re: Jacksonville State, New Mexico State has clinched second place. Liberty will play New Mexico State in the Conference USA Championship. Liberty will host.

ACC Football Tiebreakers

No need for tiebreakers here. Florida State and Louisville have finished their ACC seasons at 8–0 and 7–1, respectively. No one else will finish better than 6–2.

Big 12 Football Tiebreakers

Link: Tiebreaker Policy

Here’s where the Big 12’s action yesterday left us, having eliminated Kansas from reaching a tie for second but leaving that possibility open for everybody else:

• Texas: 7–1
• Oklahoma State: 6–2
• Oklahoma: 6–2
• Kansas State: 6–2
• West Virginia: 5–3
• Iowa State: 5–3
• Texas Tech: 5–3

Here are this final week’s relevant games:

• TCU @ Oklahoma
• Texas Tech @ Texas
• Iowa State @ Kansas State
• BYU @ Oklahoma State
• West Virginia @ Baylor

With only five meaningful games, there are only 32 possible scenarios. In half of them, the outcome is clear. Either no tiebreaker is necessary to determine the conference championship matchup or the tiebreaker is a two-way head-to-head tie. In the other half, we have to use tiebreakers. Here are our impressions of who wins those tiebreakers:

• Kansas State vs. Oklahoma: Oklahoma.
• Oklahoma State vs. Oklahoma vs. Kansas State: Oklahoma State.
• Texas vs. Oklahoma State vs. Oklahoma: Oklahoma and Texas.
• Texas vs. Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State: Texas and Oklahoma State.
• Texas vs. Oklahoma vs. Kansas State: Texas and Kansas State.
• Texas vs. Oklahoma State vs. Oklahoma vs. Kansas State: Texas and Oklahoma State.
• Oklahoma State vs. Oklahoma vs. Kansas State vs. Iowa State: Oklahoma State.
• Oklahoma State vs. Oklahoma vs. Kansas State vs. Iowa State vs. West Virginia: Oklahoma.
• Oklahoma State vs. Oklahoma vs. Kansas State vs. Iowa State vs. Texas Tech: Kansas State.
• Oklahoma State vs. Oklahoma vs. Kansas State vs. Iowa State vs. West Virginia vs. Texas Tech: Oklahoma OR Kansas State (depends who wins the Kansas/Cincinnati and Houston/UCF games, because there are actually 128 scenarios and not just 32).

Here are the explanations:

• Kansas State vs. Oklahoma (relevant if Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas State, and BYU all win): Oklahoma wins tiebreaker in Step 2 (record against highest-placed common opponent with differing result), because Oklahoma beat Texas and Kansas State lost to Texas.
• Oklahoma State vs. Oklahoma vs. Kansas State (relevant if Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas State, and Oklahoma State all win): Oklahoma State, because although Kansas State and Oklahoma didn’t play, Oklahoma State beat both (the Big 12 clarified this last week).
• Texas vs. Oklahoma State vs. Oklahoma (relevant if Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Iowa State, and Oklahoma State all win): Oklahoma and Texas finish 1^st and 2^nd by Step 2, because both beat Iowa State while Iowa State beat Oklahoma State.
• Texas vs. Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State (relevant if TCU, Texas Tech, Kansas State, and Oklahoma State all win): This one is very ugly. My impression (shared by mred, who is an expert at this stuff and doing heroic work navigating some really bad tiebreaker-writing by the Big 12) is that each team’s result against Iowa State would eliminate Oklahoma State from the three-team tie, BUT that after the tiebreaker for the remaining two-team tie between Texas and Kansas State was run, going to Texas by virtue of head-to-head result, the tiebreaker would be run again between only Oklahoma State and Kansas State, because the Big 12 rules say to run each tiebreaker until you get the top team within it and then to start over with the rest. That tiebreaker would go to Oklahoma State based on that head-to-head result. So, Texas and Oklahoma State would play in the Big 12 Championship.
• Texas vs. Oklahoma vs. Kansas State (relevant if Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Kansas State, and BYU all win): Texas and Kansas State, because each beat Kansas while Kansas beat Oklahoma.
• Texas vs. Oklahoma State vs. Oklahoma vs. Kansas State (relevant if Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Kansas State, and BYU all win): We’re back to the mess again. The order of operations differs based on whether or not Kansas wins, but the result is the same. The tie initially is reduced to Texas vs. Kansas State through results against Iowa State and Kansas. Texas wins that tiebreaker based on their head-to-head win over Kansas State. Then, we do the three-way Oklahoma State vs. Oklahoma vs. Kansas State tiebreaker again, and Oklahoma State wins that for the reasons listed above.
• Oklahoma State vs. Oklahoma vs. Kansas State vs. Iowa State (relevant if TCU, Texas, Iowa State, BYU, and Baylor all win): Oklahoma State, by eliminating Iowa State and Oklahoma based on results against Kansas, and by winning the resulting head-to-head tiebreaker over Kansas State.
• Oklahoma State vs. Oklahoma vs. Kansas State vs. Iowa State vs. West Virginia (relevant if TCU, Texas, Iowa State, BYU, and West Virginia all win): This eventually works its way back to Oklahoma. The five don’t share a common opponent, but that leaves us looking at Step 4, conference strength of schedule, and Oklahoma always leads that. Depending on the results of Kansas/Cincinnati and UCF/Houston, Oklahoma can be tied with Iowa State and/or Kansas State, but Oklahoma beat Iowa State head-to-head and wins a three-way tie there by having beaten Texas.
• Oklahoma State vs. Oklahoma vs. Kansas State vs. Iowa State vs. Texas Tech (relevant if TCU, Texas Tech, Iowa State, BYU, and Baylor all win): Kansas State. Kansas beat both Oklahoma and Iowa State, while Oklahoma State, Kansas State, and Texas Tech all beat Kansas. UCF beat Oklahoma State, while Kansas State and Texas Tech beat UCF. Kansas State beat Texas Tech head-to-head.
• Oklahoma State vs. Oklahoma vs. Kansas State vs. Iowa State vs. West Virginia vs. Texas Tech: (relevant if TCU, Texas Tech, Iowa State, BYU, and West Virginia all win): Oklahoma, UNLESS Houston and Kansas both win, in which case it’s Kansas State. There are no common opponents between all six of these teams, so it goes to conference strength of schedule. If Houston and Kansas both win, Kansas State wins. If one of those two loses, Kansas State is either in a two-way tie with Oklahoma or a three-way tie with Oklahoma and Iowa State. We covered KSU vs. OU above, but KSU vs. OU vs. ISU goes OU’s way because OU beat Texas while Texas beat both KSU and ISU.

So, after all of that:

Texas has clinched a spot in the Big 12 Championship. West Virginia, Iowa State, and Texas Tech are all eliminated. Oklahoma State doesn’t quite control its fate, but it might by the time it plays on Saturday. Overall, Oklahoma State has about an 85% chance of making the conference championship, Oklahoma’s is about 10%, and Kansas State’s is about 5%.

If we interpreted this all correctly.

If we didn’t, the Big 12 needs to clear things up.

Update: The Big 12 has released an update on scenarios that doesn’t clear anything up and further muddies the waters by saying Texas hasn’t clinched without offering a scenario in which Texas does not make the Big 12 Championship. We’re not mad. This is hilarious.They’re saying they’ll update us again after Friday’s games (OU/TCU, UT/TTU).

Big Ten Football Tiebreakers

There won’t be any need for tiebreakers here. Iowa has clinched the West outright, and the winner of Michigan/Ohio State will do the same with the East.

Pac-12 Football Tiebreakers

Link: Tiebreaker Policy

After yesterday’s results, the top of the Pac-12 looks like this:

• Washington: 8–0
• Oregon: 7–1
• Arizona: 6–2

Washington has clinched a Pac-12 Championship appearance. Oregon did not play Arizona head-to-head, but if the two tie, the tiebreaker will be results against common opponents, prioritizing those higher in the standings. In the scenario in which the two tie, Oregon State will finish ahead of USC, which will give Arizona the tiebreaker (Arizona beat Oregon State and lost to USC; Oregon beat USC and would have to lose to Oregon State for there to be a tie).

So:

• Oregon clinches with a win OR an Arizona loss.
• Arizona clinches with a win AND an Oregon loss.

SEC Football Tiebreakers

Georgia and Alabama clinched their divisions last week. No tiebreakers needed.

American Athletic Conference Football Tiebreakers

Link: Tiebreaker Policy

With SMU beating Memphis and both Tulane and UTSA taking care of business, we have three teams tied atop the AAC at 7–0. The head-to-heads:

• SMU didn’t play UTSA or Tulane.
• UTSA and Tulane play this week in New Orleans.

The result is that the winner of UTSA and Tulane is locked into the conference championship, and SMU is in with a win over Navy. If SMU loses, the conference will use a composite of four computer rankings (Anderson & Hester, Billingsley, Colley, Wolfe) to determine whether SMU or the Tulane/UTSA loser will receive the second spot. Entering this week, Tulane outranked SMU and SMU outranked UTSA, and beating Memphis should help SMU. But, losing to Navy would be a bad loss for SMU.

If SMU loses, the UTSA/Tulane winner will host the AAC Championship. If SMU wins, the higher-ranked between SMU and the UTSA/Tulane winner will host. If one or both teams are ranked in this week’s College Football Playoff rankings, the better-ranked team will host. If neither are ranked, it’ll be the computer composite again. The AAC built its tiebreakers in an effort to make its champion as highly-ranked as possible.

In short:

• Tulane is in with a win and probably in with an SMU loss. Tulane will probably host with a win.
• SMU is in with a win and might be in with a loss. SMU will probably host with a win and a UTSA win.
• UTSA is in with a win and might be in with a loss. UTSA will host with a win and an SMU loss, and has a small chance of hosting with a win and an SMU win.

Mountain West Conference Football Tiebreakers

Link: Tiebreaker Policy

This isn’t as bad as the Big 12. The top of the standings:

• UNLV: 6–1
• Air Force: 5–2
• Boise State: 5–2
• San Jose State: 5–2

Remaining games that might be relevant:

• San Jose State @ UNLV
• Air Force @ Boise State

There are two teams at 4–3, but because Air Force and Boise State play one another, the Mountain West is guaranteed at least two teams with two or fewer losses. That leaves us with two possibilities. Either it’s a straightforward situation in which UNLV finishes atop the league and the Boise/Air Force winner finishes in second place, or there’s a three-way tie.

If there’s a three-way tie, the Mountain West will try to solve it with head-to-head results, but if that doesn’t work, it’s off to the rankings—likely the same computer rankings the AAC uses, though that’s not definitively clear from their tiebreaker procedure alone.

Head-to-head won’t work. An Air Force/UNLV/San Jose State round robin would find the three teams 1–1 against each other, and since Boise State didn’t play UNLV, head-to-head wouldn’t work if Boise was involved. The computers it is.

The four rankings the AAC uses had UNLV ahead of Air Force even before yesterday’s game, and they had SJSU narrowly ahead of Boise State (there was a big gap between those two pairs). Considering this, we’d guess UNLV has not only clinched but will probably play at home, and that Air Force would get in ahead of San Jose State. We’d also guess that San Jose State would get in ahead of Boise State, but we aren’t positive about that. We’ll see where the rankings stand when they come out.

Sun Belt Conference Football Tiebreakers

Link: Tiebreaker Policy

We’re not convinced that any NCAA rule is making James Madison ineligible for the Sun Belt Championship. In college basketball, multiple leagues allow transitioning teams to play in their conference tournament even though they’re ineligible for the NCAA Tournament. The Sun Belt as a whole would be best-served if James Madison played in the conference championship. This is true whether the Dukes are bowl-eligible or not. The other options in the East aren’t going to move the needle enough on Troy’s résumé to help get them into the New Year’s Six bowl, but JMU might help. The Sun Belt might as well take a shot with JMU. We wouldn’t be surprised if someone realizes this and JMU ultimately gets in.

Meanwhile…

Troy has clinched the West Division.

Atop the East:

• James Madison: 6–1
• Coastal Carolina: 5–2
• Appalachian State: 5–2
• Old Dominion: 4–3

Relevant games this week:

• James Madison @ Coastal Carolina
• Georgia Southern @ Appalachian State
• Georgia State @ Old Dominion

James Madison could clinch the division with a win, were the Sun Belt to let them play. With a loss, either Coastal Carolina would win a head-to-head tiebreaker or there’d be a three-way tie between JMU, Coastal, and App State. Coastal would also win this tiebreaker, though, because they also beat App State. Coastal *also* beat Old Dominion, so in the scenario in which JMU is not allowed to play in the Sun Belt Championship but JMU does beat Coastal, Old Dominion has no chance and App State can only make it with a win. Any tiebreaker in any scenario goes to Coastal Carolina. Old Dominion is eliminated.

For hosting:

Troy is 6–1 in Sun Belt play. They lost to James Madison but did not play Coastal or App State. If there’s a tie between Troy and Coastal or App State, home-field advantage will be decided by the same computer rankings the AAC uses. I’m not sure where those would land, given Troy would have to lose to a bad Southern Miss team for a tie to happen.

Summarized:

• 7–1 Troy vs. 7–1 JMU: JMU hosts.
• 7–1 JMU vs. 6–2 Troy: JMU hosts.
• 7–1 Troy vs. 6–2 or 5–3 CCU/App State: Troy hosts.
• 6–2 Troy vs. 6–2 CCU/App State: Computers decide.

MAC Football Tiebreakers

Toledo has clinched the MAC West outright. Miami–Ohio has clinched the East, holding the head-to-head advantage over Ohio, the only team who could tie them (nobody could pass them). Toledo will play Miami–Ohio for the MAC Championship.

Conference USA Football Tiebreakers

Conference USA is in the same situation as the Sun Belt in that its chance of sending a team to a New Year’s Six bowl would be maximized by allowing Jacksonville State to play in its conference championship game if qualified. Jacksonville State wouldn’t have a chance themselves, but Liberty does have a chance, and if Jacksonville State is the better possible opponent, that’s who Conference USA wants Liberty to play. We doubt they’ll do this, having already announced that New Mexico State will play at Liberty for the conference title, but this was a dumb move by Conference USA, unless there’s a big difference between the NCAA’s football rules and basketball rules on this front.

If Conference USA were to reverse course, the winner of Jacksonville State’s game at New Mexico State this week would determine second place in the conference. Each enters the weekend 6–1 in league play. Liberty has clinched home field advantage in either scenario, with head-to-head victories over both possible opponents.