Week 11 is in the books, and the conference tiebreaker scenarios got a whole lot cleaner. We have our deepest dives below, but at a high level, this is what we’re dealing with:
- ACC: Florida State has clinched a spot in the conference championship. Louisville will most likely take the other spot, but there are scenarios where UNC or Virginia Tech takes it.
- Big 12: It’s still too early to tell for sure who needs who to beat whom, but we’ll have clear scenarios next week. It’s possible as many as eight teams remain alive.
- Big Ten: The winner of Ohio State vs. Michigan will win the East. Iowa can clinch the West with one more win, but everyone besides Purdue remains alive in that division.
- Pac-12: Washington hasn’t yet clinched a title game spot, nor has Oregon. Oregon State, Arizona, and Utah also remain alive. USC has been eliminated.
- SEC: It’s Georgia vs. Alabama.
- American: Four teams remain alive, and we’re probably heading to a tiebreaker of some sort, which will probably be decided by the College Football Playoff rankings or a set of four computer rankings.
- Mountain West: Seven teams remain alive. It is messy.
- Sun Belt: Provided JMU isn’t surprisingly granted full bowl eligibility, three teams remain alive in the Sun Belt East, while Troy has clinched the West and is the likeliest team to host.
- MAC: Toledo has clinched the West. The East probably belongs to Miami–Ohio, but three other teams remain in play.
- Conference USA: It’s Liberty vs. New Mexico State. Liberty will host.
As far as details go…
Here’s what we have, through games of Saturday, November 11th (our latest updates on these can always be found at this link):
ACC Football Tiebreakers
Link: Tiebreaker Policy (page 12)
With UNC beating Duke, the Tar Heels could still theoretically tie Louisville, as could NC State and Virginia Tech. That would happen if Louisville lost to Miami and the team in question—of UNC, NCSU, and VT—won out. Louisville has beaten NC State and Virginia Tech head to head, though.
Because UNC and NC State have yet to play each other, NC State can’t be involved in any hypothetical tie here. UNC and NC State cannot both win out. So, the two possibilities for a relevant ACC tie consist of a two-way tie between Louisville and UNC and a three-way tie between Louisville, UNC, and Virginia Tech.
In the two-way tie, we’d have to go all the way to Step 3 in the conference tiebreakers: Head-to-head results against common conference opponents in order of conference finish (with ties broken to determine that order). In the relevant scenario, Louisville’s losses would have come to Miami and Pitt, while UNC’s came to Virginia and Georgia Tech. With Virginia and Pitt both 1–5 in the ACC, this tie would come down to which of Georgia Tech and Miami finishes higher in the ACC standings, accounting for ties. Right now, Georgia Tech is 4–3 and still has to play Syracuse, while Miami is 4–4 in this scenario, because Miami would have to beat Louisville for this tie to exist. So, if Louisville and UNC tie head to head, Louisville can be saved right away if Georgia Tech simply beats Syracuse. Louisville can clinch the ACC title game spot next weekend with a win and a UNC loss. They might also be saved by a Georgia Tech win.
Does Louisville need that Georgia Tech win, though? Georgia Tech did beat Miami head to head, after all.
There is at least one scenario in which Miami could finish atop a three-way tie involving Georgia Tech (the example we’ve found is one where Boston College loses to Pitt), thereby giving the two-way tiebreaker to UNC. So, right now, Louisville has not clinched the ACC, but it could with a win, a UNC loss, or maybe a Georgia Tech win. At least from what we know about the two-way tie.
In the three-way tie scenario, the first order of business is checking the records of Louisville, Virginia Tech, and UNC against common opponents (because UNC plays neither Louisville nor Virginia Tech). Those opponents are NC State, Pitt, and Virginia. Louisville went 2–1 against those teams. In this scenario, UNC went 2–1 against those teams. In this scenario, Virginia Tech went 3–0 against those teams. So, if Louisville loses while UNC and Virginia Tech both win out, Virginia Tech would win the three-way tiebreaker.
Where does this leave our clinching scenarios?
Louisville has at least three:
- Louisville beats Miami.
- Clemson beats UNC OR NC State beats UNC.
- Georgia Tech beats Syracuse AND either NC State or Virginia beats Virginia Tech.
UNC has at least one, but might have more:
- Miami beats Louisville, UNC beats Clemson, UNC beats NC State, Syracuse beats Georgia Tech, Pitt beats Boston College, Miami beats Boston College, and either NC State or Virginia beats Virginia Tech.
Virginia Tech has exactly one:
- Miami beats Louisville, UNC beats Clemson, UNC beats NC State, Virginia Tech beats NC State, and Virginia Tech beats Virginia.
Big 12 Football Tiebreakers
Link: Tiebreaker Policy
The Big 12 is nuts. Here’s what the standings look like, from 8th place up, with ties unbroken:
- Texas: 6–1
- Oklahoma State: 5–2
- Oklahoma: 5–2
- Kansas State: 5–2
- Iowa State: 5–2
- West Virginia: 4–3
- Texas Tech: 4–3
- Kansas: 4–3
Here’s who has a head-to-head loss to whom:
- Texas lost to Oklahoma.
- Oklahoma State lost to Iowa State.
- Oklahoma lost to Oklahoma State and Kansas.
- Kansas State lost to Texas and Oklahoma State.
- Iowa State lost to Oklahoma and Kansas.
- West Virginia lost to Oklahoma State and Oklahoma.
- Texas Tech lost to Kansas State and West Virginia.
- Kansas lost to Texas, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech.
Head-to-head games remaining, involving these teams:
- Texas at Iowa State
- Texas Tech at Texas
- Kansas State at Kansas
- Iowa State at Kansas State
Given all of that…
Texas has not clinched. The Longhorns could still finish 6–3 with two or more teams above them at 7–2. With a win at Iowa State, I’m still not sure Texas would necessarily clinch. There are 16,384 remaining combinations of Big 12 game results, and 8,192 of them involve Texas beating Iowa State, and 4,096 of them involve Texas then losing to Texas Tech, and we have not yet gotten through all 4,096 of those to make sure they all result in Texas making the Big 12 Championship.
Oklahoma State remains in a strong position after yesterday’s loss, with head-to-head advantages over both Oklahoma and Kansas State.
Oklahoma would win a two-way tiebreaker over Kansas State, assuming Texas finishes in first place, because Oklahoma beat Texas and Kansas State lost to Texas.
We haven’t checked all the scenarios in which second place comes down to a tiebreaker of 6–3 teams, but we do know that if second place is 6–3, there will be a tiebreaker, so West Virginia, Texas Tech, and Kansas all need to win a tiebreaker in addition to winning out in order to make the Big 12 Championship. Again, we aren’t sure if this is possible or not. Maybe someone else has checked all the scenarios.
Big Ten Football Tiebreakers
Link: Tiebreaker Policy (Note: We haven’t seen this officially confirmed as current, but we haven’t seen anyone refute it, and the Big Ten East tiebreaker situation is prominently in the public eye, so our guess is that if the Big Ten had changed its procedure, it would have made that clear.)
The Big Ten East is straightforward now. Even if Michigan or Ohio State were to lose their next game, the game between them would be the de facto Big Ten East Championship. The winner of Michigan and Ohio State wins the Big Ten East.
In the Big Ten West, the standings look like this, excluding Purdue who is eliminated:
- Iowa: 5–2
- Northwestern: 3–4
- Nebraska: 3–4
- Wisconsin: 3–4
- Illinois: 3–4
- Minnesota: 3–4
Iowa can clinch the West with one more win, then, hosting Illinois next weekend before visiting Nebraska on Black Friday. Iowa also holds direct head-to-head victories over Northwestern and Wisconsin, while they’ve lost to Minnesota. The biggest the tie could be would be a four-way tie involving Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota, and the winner of Northwestern and Illinois. On the other end, each of the other five teams could find themselves in a two-way tiebreaker with Iowa.
Northwestern and Wisconsin, each of whom lost head-to-head to Iowa, retain a path. Northwestern would win a hypothetical three-way tiebreaker with Iowa and Minnesota by virtue of having the best Big Ten West record in the hypothetical. Wisconsin would win the same way in a three-way tiebreaker involving Iowa and Illinois.
So, all six Big Ten West teams not named Purdue remain alive, but Iowa can make this really simple by beating Illinois.
Pac-12 Football Tiebreakers
Link: Tiebreaker Policy
The top of the Pac-12 standings look like this:
- Washington: 7–0
- Oregon: 6–1
- Arizona: 5–2
- Oregon State: 5–2
- USC: 5–3
- Utah: 4–3
Washington has not yet clinched a Pac-12 Championship spot. In a hypothetical four-way tie involving all of Washington, Oregon, Arizona, and Oregon State at 7–2, Arizona and Oregon would emerge with the Pac-12 Championship spots, having gone 3–0 against common opponents between the four while Washington and Oregon State would have each lost to Washington State in the scenario.
Washington could, though, clinch a championship spot with one more win, or in a few other ways, such as Oregon State losing to Oregon at the end of the regular season.
Relevant head-to-heads:
- Oregon lost to Washington.
- Arizona lost to Washington and USC.
- Oregon State lost to Arizona.
- USC lost to Utah, Washington, and Oregon.
- Utah lost to Oregon State, Oregon, and Washington.
Here’s who still has to play, between these teams:
- Washington at Oregon State
- Oregon State at Oregon
- Utah at Arizona
There is a way for second place to be decided between 6–3 teams, and that’s if Arizona loses once more while Oregon loses twice more and Oregon State loses to Washington. In that scenario, Oregon and Oregon State both have to be involved in the tie. For Utah, this is bad news, because Utah lost to both Oregon and Oregon State. Utah would need Arizona and/or USC to become involved, and Utah would then have to get through on the tiebreaker which compares the win percentages of everyone’s conference opponents. We think this would work out well for Utah, whose schedule doesn’t include Stanford or Washington State, but we haven’t checked in detail. We don’t think Utah is eliminated yet.
USC’s path, if it existed, would also need to go through this 6–3 tie, and USC would be at a disadvantage against Oregon and Oregon State because the three share Utah as a common opponent, with Oregon and Oregon State both beating Utah while Utah beat USC. Involving only Arizona wouldn’t be enough either, because Arizona also played Utah and also lost to Utah, which would leave Oregon State and Oregon alone atop the tiebreaker, with USC and Arizona simultaneously eliminated. This means USC would need Arizona and Utah to both be involved in the tiebreaker, a five-way tie USC would, like Utah, need to win based on the combined records of all their conference opponents. USC’s schedule doesn’t include Oregon State or Washington State, though, and because they share all other opponents with Utah, this guarantees Utah will have a better conference strength of schedule than USC, as might some of the other three teams involved in the tie. So, USC is eliminated.
Overall, Oregon is in a good place, by virtue of being alone in second. There’s a lot behind that, but Oregon’s in a good place.
SEC Football Tiebreakers
Link: Tiebreaker Policy
Georgia clinched the East yesterday, ending the night with a two-game lead with only one conference game to play. Alabama clinched the West in the same manner.
American Athletic Conference Football Tiebreakers
Link: Tiebreaker Policy
None of the AAC contenders lost this week, though two made it interesting. The result is that we’re officially down to a four-team race:
- Tulane: 6–0
- SMU: 6–0
- UTSA: 6–0
- Memphis: 5–1
Between these four, only Memphis and Tulane have played, with Tulane winning that game. SMU still has to play at Memphis, and UTSA still has to play at Tulane. None of the other three head-to-heads are on the schedule this year. Tulane doesn’t play SMU, and UTSA doesn’t play SMU or Memphis. This means that if we don’t have a direct head-to-head result to use as the relevant tiebreaker (should a tiebreaker be needed), we’re probably going to the College Football Playoff Rankings or, if all involved teams are unranked, an aggregation of four computer rankings systems (Anderson & Hester, Billingsley, Colley, and Wolfe). There are only 64 scenarios left here, but uncertainty around the rankings piece leaves things pretty uncertain. The most likely scenarios are that either the Tulane/UTSA winner and SMU are both 8–0 or that the SMU, Memphis, and the Tulane/UTSA loser are all 7–1. There’ll also be home field considerations to sort through.
Mountain West Conference Football Tiebreakers
Link: Tiebreaker Policy
Holy crap, Air Force.
With last night’s losses by the Falcons and Fresno State, the top of the Mountain West is a mess. Here are all the teams who could finish with a winning record:
- Air Force: 5–1
- UNLV: 5–1
- Fresno State: 4–2
- Boise State: 4–2
- San Jose State: 4–2
- Wyoming: 3–3
- Utah State: 3–3
Could second place come down to a tiebreaker involving 5–3 teams? Yes. So, in theory, all these teams are alive. Head-to-heads, between them:
- UNLV lost to Fresno State.
- Fresno State lost to Wyoming and San Jose State.
- Boise State lost to Fresno State.
- San Jose State lost to Air Force and Boise State.
- Wyoming lost to Air Force, Boise State, and UNLV.
- Utah State lost to Air Force, Fresno State, and San Jose State.
Remaining relevant head-to-heads:
- UNLV at Air Force
- Boise State at Utah State
- Air Force at Boise State
- San Jose State at UNLV
- Wyoming at Nevada
The UNLV/Air Force winner is very likely to make the Mountain West Championship, but we’re not sure even that winner is guaranteed to be safe, as we could see as many as four 6–2 Mountain West teams. Air Force is helped by their loss coming to someone other than these teams (Boise State also lost to a non-contender, helping them), but they’re far from safe, playing terribly with two tough games awaiting.
As with the AAC, if head-to-head can’t settle this, it’ll go to the CFP Rankings and then to the computers. We aren’t positive the Mountain West uses the same systems as the AAC, either. That’s a black box.
Sun Belt Conference Football Tiebreakers
Link: Tiebreaker Policy
The Sun Belt is complicated by James Madison’s status. If James Madison is granted full bowl eligibility by the NCAA (which would be something of a surprise), the Dukes would not only be allowed by the Sun Belt to play in the Sun Belt Championship but would likely host. For the sake of forecasting tiebreakers, we’re assuming that won’t happen.
Troy has clinched the West Division, and as of right now is the likeliest team to host the Sun Belt Championship, sitting at 5–1 while no other non-JMU team has fewer than two conference losses. Troy’s only loss in Sun Belt play came to JMU, helping this cause.
Atop the East, but behind JMU:
- Coastal Carolina: 5–2
- Appalachian State: 4–2
- Georgia Southern: 3–3
- Old Dominion: 3–3
Relevant head-to-heads:
- Coastal beat Old Dominion and App State but lost to Georgia Southern.
- App State lost to Old Dominion and has yet to play Georgia Southern.
- Georgia Southern and Old Dominion have yet to play.
Georgia Southern, then, is in a good tiebreaker position if it can get there, given it will hold the head-to-head over all possible tied teams. With Coastal’s final conference game coming against James Madison after Thanksgiving, this is distinctly possible.
If there’s any other tie, Coastal will hold the tiebreaker. This means Old Dominion is eliminated, and it means App State needs to beat JMU this weekend to have any chance.
MAC Football Tiebreakers
Link: Tiebreaker Policy (Note: We cannot confirm that this is current.)
Toledo has clinched the MAC West. In the East, the top of the division looks like this:
- Miami (OH): 5–1
- Ohio: 4–2
- Bowling Green State: 4–2
- Buffalo: 3–3
Miami beat both Ohio and Bowling Green but has yet to play Buffalo. That game happens Wednesday. With a win, Miami clinches the East. With a loss, Buffalo is still alive if one of Ohio and Bowling Green loses, while both Ohio and Bowling Green are most likely alive with a win themselves.
If Miami loses to Buffalo, Miami can still win the East by beating Ball State. Ohio beat Bowling Green, so Bowling Green could use Ohio picking up an extra loss. Both Ohio and Bowling Green beat Buffalo, so Buffalo needs at least one of the two to lose out. Possibly both. We haven’t checked every scenario here.
Conference USA Football Tiebreakers
With New Mexico State beating Western Kentucky today, Liberty and New Mexico State will play for the Conference USA Championship (the conference has Jacksonville State ineligible during their FBS transition, like the Sun Belt does with James Madison). The game will be played at Liberty, who beat NMSU in their regular season meeting. Jacksonville State does still play NMSU head-to-head, so if JMU accidentally wins Jacksonville State some collateral bowl privileges (I don’t think this is going to happen, but when rules are flexible, it’s hard to know for sure), that could make things messy. Right now, though, the Conference USA Championship is set.
