What a Week 10 it was. Here’s where it left each conference’s tiebreaker situations.
We have our deepest (reasonable) dig into each league’s scenarios below, but at a high-level, this is what we’re dealing with:
- ACC: Florida State has clinched a spot in the conference championship. Louisville isn’t quite there, but is very likely to join them.
- Big 12: It’s messy, but Oklahoma State is in a great place.
- Big Ten: Penn State has taken the lead in the hypothetical three-way tiebreaker in the East, but there’s a lot of season left, and they’re going to be a sizable underdog in Ann Arbor. In the West, Iowa leads the standings but it’s too early to talk ties.
- Pac-12: Washington’s in good shape but has yet to clinch. Behind them, it’s messy.
- SEC: We’re very likely to see Georgia vs. Alabama, but Tennessee and Mississippi are still alive.
- American: It’s still too early to tell.
- Mountain West: Air Force and Fresno State have the upper hand, but it isn’t over yet.
- Sun Belt: Troy almost has the West locked up. The East is messy.
- MAC: Toledo and Miami (the Ohio edition) haven’t quite clinched their respective divisions, but each is in the driver’s seat. Especially Toledo.
- Conference USA: Liberty has clinched a home game. The winner of NMSU/WKU this week will likely take the second spot, and NMSU could clinch it outright.
As for the details…
Here’s what we have, through games of Saturday, November 4th (our latest updates on these can always be found at this link):
ACC Football Tiebreakers
Link: Tiebreaker Policy (page 12)
The top of the ACC standings is busy, but Florida State has clinched a conference championship spot, and behind them, Louisville probably has the second wrapped up. Louisville, and the two-loss teams:
- Louisville: 5–1
- Georgia Tech: 4–2
- Duke: 3–2
- North Carolina: 3–2
- Boston College: 3–2
- NC State: 3–2
- Virginia Tech: 3–2
Of the six teams within one loss of them, Louisville has beaten Georgia Tech, Duke, Boston College, NC State, and Virginia Tech. They don’t play UNC head-to-head, but if a direct, two-way tie happened there, it currently looks like Louisville would win it by virtue of losing to worse conference foes than the Tar Heels (the ACC eventually does the tiebreaker where you go from top to bottom through the standings looking for common opponents). Louisville might not clinch this week against Virginia, but they might (they’d need Duke to beat UNC), and regardless, they’re very close.
Big 12 Football Tiebreakers
Link: Tiebreaker Policy
What a league. Here’s the top:
- Texas: 5–1
- Oklahoma State: 5–1
- Kansas: 4–2
- Oklahoma: 4–2
- Kansas State: 4–2
- West Virginia: 4–2
- Iowa State: 4–2
The head-to-heads:
- Texas has beaten Kansas State and Kansas and has lost to Oklahoma. They have yet to play Iowa State (A) in addition to TCU (A) and Texas Tech (H). They don’t play Oklahoma State or West Virginia.
- Oklahoma State has beaten Oklahoma, Kansas State, Kansas, and West Virginia. They lost to Iowa State and they don’t play Texas. Their remaining schedule goes UCF (A); Houston (A); BYU (H).
- Kansas has beaten Oklahoma and Iowa State and has lost to Texas and Oklahoma State. They have yet to play Kansas State (H), in addition to Texas Tech (H) and Cincinnati (A). They don’t play West Virginia.
- Oklahoma has beaten Texas and Iowa State and has lost to Oklahoma State and Kansas. They have yet to play West Virginia (H), in addition to BYU (A) and TCU (H). They don’t play Kansas State.
- Kansas State has lost to Texas and Oklahoma State. They have yet to play Kansas (A) and Iowa State (H), in addition to Baylor (H). They don’t play Oklahoma or West Virginia.
- West Virginia has lost to Oklahoma State (and to Houston). They have yet to play Oklahoma (A), in addition to Cincinnati (H) and Baylor (A). West Virginia does not play Texas, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Kansas State, or Iowa State.
- Iowa State has beaten Oklahoma State and lost to both Oklahoma and Kansas. They have yet to play Texas (H) and Kansas State (A), in addition to BYU (A). They don’t play West Virginia.
Oklahoma State’s in a strong position, because even if they do drop another game, they should be able to win either a head-to-head tiebreaker or win the tiebreaker in the step which goes through each team’s Big 12 schedule from top of the standings to bottom looking for common opponents. (Example of how this works: Right now, to break a tie between Oklahoma State and Texas, the league would look at which 4–2 teams both OSU and UT have played, see Oklahoma State is 3–0 against OU/KSU/KU while Texas is 2–1 against them, and give the tie to Oklahoma State.) Oklahoma State has nearly put itself into the Big 12 championship. It just needs to go 2–1 from here and not get spectacularly unlucky.
It’s hard to say with the others. No one is better than 2–1 against the rest of the pack. Oklahoma State did a whole lot for themselves yesterday.
Big Ten Football Tiebreakers
Link: Tiebreaker Policy (Note: We haven’t seen this officially confirmed as current, but we haven’t seen anyone refute it, and the Big Ten East tiebreaker situation is prominently in the public eye, so our guess is that if the Big Ten had changed its procedure, it would have made that clear.)
Oh boy.
The Big Ten East is easier. At the moment, here’s what we’re working with:
- Michigan: 6–0
- Ohio State: 6–0
- Penn State: 5–1
For head-to-head purposes, Ohio State holds the tiebreaker over Penn State. The other two matchups between these three have yet to happen. For the three-way tie:
If the three-way tie happens, and if all three teams are 8–1 in conference, the deciding factor will be the conference records of each team’s Big Ten West opponents. At the moment, this favors Penn State, for whom Illinois’s comeback over Minnesota yesterday could become a gigantic deal.
- Penn State’s Big Ten West opponents are Iowa, Illinois, and Northwestern. (Currently 8–10)
- Ohio State’s Big Ten West opponents are Wisconsin, Purdue, and Minnesota. (Currently 7–11)
- Michigan’s Big Ten West opponents are Nebraska, Purdue, and Minnesota. (Currently 7–11)
If there’s still a two-way tie after completing this step of the tiebreaker process, the tie will be decided by the head-to-head result between those two teams. So, in the hypothetical, Ohio State merely needs its opponents’ records to tie those of Penn State and best those of Michigan, while Michigan is hypothetically concerned with besting Penn State’s and tying Ohio State’s, and Penn State is hypothetically concerned with besting Ohio State’s and tying Michigan’s.
If there’s still a three-way tie after completing this step, the next will be to proceed through all three teams’ records against the Big Ten West in order of the Big Ten West standings. Notably, ties will not be broken within this progression. Also notably, common opponents don’t matter here. If Iowa finishes alone in first place in the West and we’ve reached this tiebreaker, Penn State will win the East by virtue of being 1–0 against the Big Ten West champion while Michigan and Ohio State each went 0–0 against them.
As for that Big Ten West…
It actually isn’t that bad. Yet. Here are the standings at the top:
- Iowa: 4–2
- Minnesota: 3–3
- Wisconsin: 3–3
- Nebraska: 3–3
The head-to-heads:
- Iowa has beaten Wisconsin and lost to Minnesota. They have yet to play Nebraska (A), in addition to Rutgers (H) and Illinois (H). Iowa’s other conference loss came against Penn State.
- Minnesota has beaten Iowa and Nebraska. They have yet to play Wisconsin (H), in addition to Purdue (A) and Ohio State (A). Minnesota’s conference losses came to Michigan, Illinois, and Northwestern.
- Wisconsin has lost to Iowa. They have yet to play Nebraska (H) and Minnesota (A), in addition to Northwestern (H). Wisconsin’s other conference losses were to Ohio State and Indiana.
- Nebraska has lost to Minnesota. They have yet to play Wisconsin (A) and Iowa (H), in addition to Maryland (H). Nebraska’s other conference losses came to Michigan and Michigan State.
Overall, Iowa is the favorite here, though it’s too early to get into specific scenarios. Minnesota is in a great spot in some ways—they’ve beaten Iowa and Nebraska, so if they get to a tiebreaker, they have a good chance—but Ohio State’s still on the schedule, which hurts. Nebraska has a great opportunity to beat Iowa in Lincoln, but playing at Camp Randall is difficult.
Pac-12 Football Tiebreakers
Link: Tiebreaker Policy
We thought USC might complicate this against Washington, but chalk prevailed. The standings:
- Washington: 6–0
- Oregon: 5–1
- USC: 5–2
- Arizona: 4–2
- Oregon State: 4–2
- Utah: 4–2
We aren’t sure UCLA is technically eliminated (they might be—we haven’t ground through to find out), but after losing to Arizona, they’re probably out of this race. They’d need too many things to go right, and then they’d still probably have to win a tiebreaker among 6–3 teams.
Relevant head-to-heads among those still in it:
- Washington has beaten Oregon, USC, and Arizona. They have yet to play Utah (H) and Oregon State (A), in addition to Washington State (H).
- Oregon has beaten Utah and lost to Washington. They have yet to play USC (H) and Oregon State (H) in addition to Arizona State (A). They don’t play Arizona.
- USC has beaten Arizona and lost to Utah and Washington. They have yet to play Oregon (A) and UCLA (H). They don’t play Oregon State.
- Arizona has beaten Oregon State and lost to Washington and USC. They have yet to play Utah (H), in addition to Colorado (A) and Arizona State (A). They don’t play Oregon.
- Oregon State has beaten Utah and lost to Arizona. They have yet to play Washington (H) and Oregon (A), in addition to Stanford (H). Their other conference loss was to Washington State.
- Utah has beaten USC and lost to Oregon State and Oregon. They have yet to play Washington (A) and Arizona (A), in addition to Colorado (H).
Washington hasn’t fully clinched their title game spot, but holding the head-to-head over three of the five teams behind them is an advantage. Beat Utah on Saturday and they might clinch. Behind them, it’s really messy.
SEC Football Tiebreakers
Link: Tiebreaker Policy
Georgia hasn’t quite clinched the East, but the only way it doesn’t win it is if Georgia loses to Mississippi, Tennessee beats Missouri, Georgia loses to Tennessee, and Tennessee beats Vanderbilt. In that scenario, Tennessee wins the tiebreaker. Missouri is done. The standings, to illustrate, look like this:
- Georgia: 6–0 (holds head-to-head over Mizzou, yet to play Mississippi and Tennessee)
- Tennessee: 3–2 (yet to play Missouri, Georgia, and Vanderbilt)
- Missouri: 3–2 (already eliminated—best they can do is tie Georgia, and they don’t hold that tiebreaker and it would have to be head to head because Tennessee and Missouri can’t both go 6–2)
The West is similarly nearly over. Alabama can clinch it by beating Kentucky this week or beating Auburn in the Iron Bowl, or through Mississippi losing to either Georgia or Mississippi State. The standings:
- Alabama: 6–0 (holds head-to-head over both Mississippi and LSU)
- Mississippi: 5–1
- LSU: 4–2
Georgia vs. Alabama, in all likelihood, for the third straight year.
American Athletic Conference Football Tiebreakers
Link: Tiebreaker Policy
Tulane, SMU, and UTSA each survived a one-score game, leaving the American still with three teams undefeated in conference play. Here are those three, and the other team prominently involved:
- Tulane: 5–0
- SMU: 5–0
- UTSA: 5–0
- Memphis: 4–1
Relevant head-to-heads:
- Tulane has beaten Memphis. They have yet to play UTSA (H), in addition to FAU (A) and Tulsa (H). Tulane does not play SMU.
- SMU hasn’t played any of the other zero-loss or one-loss teams. They have yet to play Memphis (A), in addition to North Texas (H) and Navy (H). SMU does not play Tulane or UTSA.
- UTSA has yet to play Tulane (A), in addition to Rice (H) and USF (H). UTSA does not play SMU or Memphis.
- Memphis has lost to Tulane. They have yet to play SMU (H), in addition to Charlotte (A) and Temple (A). Memphis does not play UTSA.
The SMU/Memphis game is big (though still a couple weeks out), but it isn’t the only thing going on here. We’re still waiting for UTSA and Tulane to produce a head-to-head result as well, and there’s enough football remaining that more teams could theoretically become involved.
One relevant scenario here: What happens if Memphis beats SMU and these four teams combine to win all four of their other games? It isn’t likely, but it’s close to the scenario where all favorites win, so we’ll address it: It will depend on the CFP rankings. It’s a little more convoluted than that, but the short version is that the highest-ranked teams will get in and the highest-ranked team will host.
Mountain West Conference Football Tiebreakers
Link: Tiebreaker Policy
Air Force took a disastrous loss today to a major rival, one that completely upended their season.
That loss was not a conference game.
Here are the standings where it matters, at the top:
- Air Force: 5–0
- Fresno State: 4–1
- UNLV: 4–1
- Boise State: 3–2
- Wyoming: 3–2
- San Jose State: 3–2
Here are the relevant head-to-heads:
- Air Force has beaten San Jose State and Wyoming. They have yet to play UNLV (H) and Boise State (A), in addition to Hawaii (A). Air Force does not play Fresno State.
- Fresno State has lost to Wyoming and beaten both Boise State and UNLV. They have yet to play San Jose State (A), plus New Mexico (H) and San Diego State (A). Fresno State does not play Air Force.
- UNLV has lost to Fresno State. They have yet to play Wyoming (H), Air Force (A), and San Jose State (H). UNLV does not play Boise State.
- Boise State has beaten Wyoming and San Jose State. They lost to Fresno State and Colorado State. They have yet to play Air Force (H), in addition to New Mexico (H) and Utah State (A). Boise State does not play UNLV.
- Wyoming has lost to Air Force and Boise State and has beaten Fresno State. They have yet to play UNLV (A), in addition to Nevada (A) and Hawaii (H). Wyoming does not play San Jose State.
- San Jose State has lost to Air Force and Boise State. They have yet to play Fresno State (H) and UNLV (A), in addition to San Diego State (H). San Jose State does not play Wyoming.
It’s really looking like this conference championship will be Air Force vs. Fresno State, with the higher-ranked hosting (assuming one is ranked). That isn’t assured, though. San Jose State still has a good path in, getting a shot at both Fresno State and UNLV head to head. Air Force could still lose valuable ground. Everyone involved has at least one valuable head-to-head win already, or at least has a shot at a valuable head-to-head win.
Sun Belt Conference Football Tiebreakers
Link: Tiebreaker Policy
The Sun Belt East is complicated by James Madison’s ineligibility for the conference championship game. The Dukes are at the tail end of a transition from the FCS to FBS, and—in a situation Jacksonville State’s also dealing with—can only make a bowl this year if there aren’t enough eligible teams (this is likely). Our understanding—we aren’t certain of this, it’s only our understanding and mostly comes from college basketball—is that the bowl ban doesn’t restrict JMU from playing in a conference championship, and that this decision instead comes from the Sun Belt, who has a vested interest in producing the highest-ranked conference champion because of the potential reward of a New Year’s Six bowl appearance. The CFP committee won’t rank JMU, so JMU can’t make a New Year’s Six bowl, so the Sun Belt won’t let them play. Again, this is just our understanding.
Either way, JMU isn’t going to make the conference championship. Here’s who’s in the best shape, then, in the East:
- Coastal Carolina: 4–2
- Georgia Southern: 3–2
- Appalachian State: 3–2
- Georgia State: 3–3
- Old Dominion: 3–3
It’s too early to tell too much, but between these five:
- Coastal Carolina has beaten App State and Old Dominion. Their losses came against Georgia Southern and Georgia State. They have no games remaining against these other teams, finishing their Sun Belt campaign against Texas State (H) and JMU (H).
- Georgia Southern has beaten Georgia State and Coastal Carolina. Their losses came against Texas State and JMU. They have yet to play Old Dominion (H) and App State (A), in addition to Marshall (A).
- App State has lost to Coastal Carolina and Old Dominion. They have yet to play Georgia State (A) and Georgia Southern (H), in addition to JMU (A).
- Georgia State has beaten Coastal Carolina. Their losses came against Georgia Southern, JMU, and Troy. They have yet to play App State (H) and Old Dominion (A).
- Old Dominion has beaten App State. Their losses came against Coastal Carolina, JMU, and Marshall. They have yet to play Georgia Southern (A) and Georgia State (H).
The situation still favors Georgia Southern, even with today’s loss. They’ve beaten two of their potential tied foes, and they haven’t lost to any of the others, and while they’re vulnerable against Appalachian State and Old Dominion, neither of those schools is particularly likely to reach a direct tiebreaker.
In the West, Troy won a big one on Thursday night:
- Troy: 4–1
- Texas State: 3–2
- Arkansas State: 3–2
- Louisiana: 2–3
- South Alabama: 2–3
Here are the head-to-heads:
- Troy has beaten Texas State, Arkansas State, and South Alabama. Their loss came to JMU. Troy has yet to play Louisiana (H), in addition to Louisiana-Monroe (A) and Southern Miss (A).
- Texas State has lost to Troy and Louisiana. They have yet to play Arkansas State (A) and South Alabama (H), in addition to Coastal Carolina (A).
- Arkansas State has beaten Louisiana and lost to Troy. Their other loss came to Coastal Carolina. They have yet to play South Alabama (A) and Texas State (H), in addition to Marshall (A).
- Louisiana has beaten Texas State and South Alabama. Their losses came to Arkansas State, Old Dominion, and Georgia State. Louisiana has yet to play Troy (A), in addition to Southern Miss (H) and Louisiana-Monroe (H).
- South Alabama has lost to Troy and Louisiana. Their other loss came to JMU. They have yet to play Arkansas State (H) and Texas State (A), in addition to Marshall (H).
Troy, then, has the direct head-to-head advantage over all these teams besides Louisiana, and for them to tie Louisiana, Louisiana would need to win out or Troy would need to lose to one of two Sun Belt teams who are a combined 1–11 in league play. That’s in addition to Louisiana beating Troy, which isn’t particularly likely. So, while it’s unlikely Troy will officially clinch the Sun Belt West this week, they’ve almost certainly got it locked up.
MAC Football Tiebreakers
Link: Tiebreaker Policy (Note: We cannot confirm that this is current.)
Starting with the East, the MAC standings look like this:
- Miami (OH): 4–1
- Ohio: 3–2
- Bowling Green State: 3–2
- Buffalo: 3–2
Here are the head-to-heads:
- Miami has beaten both Ohio and Bowling Green. Their loss came to Toledo, who plays in the West. Miami has yet to play Buffalo (H), in addition to Akron (H) and Ball State (A).
- Ohio has beaten Bowling Green. Their losses came to Miami and NIU. Ohio has yet to play Buffalo (A), in addition to Central Michigan (H) and Akron (A).
- Bowling Green has beaten Buffalo and lost to both Miami and Ohio. Their remaining games are against Kent State (A), Toledo (H), and Western Michigan (A).
- Buffalo has lost to Bowling Green. Their other loss came to Toledo. They have yet to play Ohio (H) and Miami (A), in addition to Eastern Michigan (H).
Overall, this division most likely belongs to Miami, because even if they lose to Buffalo, which is unlikely, the probability is high that Buffalo will lose another remaining game. This is subject to change, but Miami currently has the edge.
Atop the West:
- Toledo: 5–0
- Central Michigan: 3–2
- Northern Illinois: 3–2
Between those three:
- Toledo has beaten NIU and has yet to play CMU (A). They also have yet to play Eastern Michigan (H) and Bowling Green (A).
- CMU has beaten NIU and has yet to play Toledo (H). They also have yet to play Western Michigan (A) and Ohio (A).
- NIU has lost to both Toledo and CMU. They have yet to play Ball State (H), Western Michigan (H), and Kent State (A).
If Central Michigan can get itself involved in a tiebreaker here, it will win it, by virtue of having beaten Toledo to get there. It’s unlikely that will happen. Most likely, Toledo has the West wrapped up.
Conference USA Football Tiebreakers
We have not yet found a current list of Conference USA tiebreakers for anything other than two-way ties, which will all be decided by head-to-head result. That is the only relevant scenario anyway.
With Liberty beating Louisiana Tech, the Flames have not only clinched a spot in the conference championship but have secured themselves a home game against whoever finishes in second place. Behind them:
- Jacksonville State: 5–1
- New Mexico State: 5–1
- Western Kentucky: 3–2
All three of Louisiana Tech, UTEP, and Middle Tennessee lost yesterday, and as expected, we have seen no reversal to the decision to make Jacksonville State ineligible for the conference title game (as with the Sun Belt, our impression is that this is up to Conference USA, as opposed to being handed down by the NCAA, which handles bowl eligibility). That means the only possible tie is a direct, two-way tie between Western Kentucky and New Mexico State.
Remaining conference games involving either:
- Week 11: New Mexico State at Western Kentucky
- Week 12: Sam Houston at Western Kentucky
- Week 13: Jacksonville State at New Mexico State; Western Kentucky at FIU
Scenarios:
- If New Mexico State wins this week, they clinch a conference championship appearance.
- If Western Kentucky wins this week, they make the conference championship either by finishing 2–0 against SHSU and FIU or by finishing 1–1 and seeing NMSU lose to Jacksonville State.
In short: If there’s a relevant tiebreaker, it will go WKU’s way. But NMSU can clinch the second spot as early as Saturday.
