College Football Playoff Probabilities

Below you can find our college football probabilities and Movelor ratings for all FBS schools. Here’s how it all works. If you’re interested in more Movelor data, including this week’s predictions, that can be found through this menu.

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Last Updated: Saturday, January 11th, 9:46 AM EST

TeamMovelor RatingNational Champions
Ohio State47.863.3%
Notre Dame44.236.7%
RankTeamMovelorConferenceAverage Final CFP RankingMake PlayoffNational ChampionshipExpected WinsMake Conference ChampionshipWin Conference
1Ohio State47.8Big Ten6100.0%63.3%13.60.0%0.0%
2Notre Dame44.2FBS Independents5100.0%36.7%14.40.0%0.0%
3Oregon42.0Big Ten1100.0%0.0%13.0100.0%100.0%
4Penn State41.0Big Ten4100.0%0.0%13.0100.0%0.0%
5Mississippi38.6SEC140.0%0.0%10.00.0%0.0%
6Alabama37.9SEC110.0%0.0%9.00.0%0.0%
7Texas36.6SEC3100.0%0.0%13.0100.0%0.0%
8Georgia36.3SEC2100.0%0.0%11.0100.0%100.0%
9Michigan34.7Big TenNR0.0%0.0%8.00.0%0.0%
10Florida33.2SECNR0.0%0.0%8.00.0%0.0%
11Tennessee32.3SEC7100.0%0.0%10.00.0%0.0%
12Indiana32.2Big Ten8100.0%0.0%11.00.0%0.0%
13LSU31.2SECNR0.0%0.0%9.00.0%0.0%
14Arizona State29.7Big 1212100.0%0.0%11.0100.0%100.0%
15Minnesota29.0Big TenNR0.0%0.0%8.00.0%0.0%
16South Carolina28.9SEC150.0%0.0%9.00.0%0.0%
17Missouri28.7SEC190.0%0.0%10.00.0%0.0%
18Clemson28.7ACC16100.0%0.0%10.0100.0%100.0%
19USC28.2Big TenNR0.0%0.0%7.00.0%0.0%
20SMU28.1ACC10100.0%0.0%11.0100.0%0.0%
21Miami (FL)27.6ACC130.0%0.0%10.00.0%0.0%
22Louisville26.5ACCNR0.0%0.0%9.00.0%0.0%
23Auburn25.9SECNR0.0%0.0%5.00.0%0.0%
24Iowa State25.4Big 12180.0%0.0%11.0100.0%0.0%
25Iowa25.4Big TenNR0.0%0.0%8.00.0%0.0%
26Colorado25.1Big 12230.0%0.0%9.00.0%0.0%
27Illinois25.1Big Ten200.0%0.0%10.00.0%0.0%
28TCU24.9Big 12NR0.0%0.0%9.00.0%0.0%
29Arkansas24.8SECNR0.0%0.0%7.00.0%0.0%
30Texas A&M24.7SECNR0.0%0.0%8.00.0%0.0%
31Boise State24.5Mountain West9100.0%0.0%12.0100.0%100.0%
32BYU24.5Big 12170.0%0.0%11.00.0%0.0%
33Kansas State24.5Big 12NR0.0%0.0%9.00.0%0.0%
34Washington24.2Big TenNR0.0%0.0%6.00.0%0.0%
35Nebraska24.1Big TenNR0.0%0.0%7.00.0%0.0%
36North Dakota State24.1MVFCFCS100.0%100.0%14.00.0%0.0%
37Kansas23.8Big 12NR0.0%0.0%5.00.0%0.0%
38South Dakota State23.5MVFCFCS100.0%0.0%12.00.0%100.0%
39Baylor23.3Big 12NR0.0%0.0%8.00.0%0.0%
40Oklahoma23.2SECNR0.0%0.0%6.00.0%0.0%
41Virginia Tech21.5ACCNR0.0%0.0%6.00.0%0.0%
42Rutgers21.1Big TenNR0.0%0.0%7.00.0%0.0%
43Texas Tech21.0Big 12NR0.0%0.0%8.00.0%0.0%
44Montana State20.9Big SkyFCS100.0%0.0%15.00.0%100.0%
45Georgia Tech20.9ACCNR0.0%0.0%7.00.0%0.0%
46Syracuse20.7ACC210.0%0.0%10.00.0%0.0%
47Vanderbilt20.6SECNR0.0%0.0%7.00.0%0.0%
48Utah20.6Big 12NR0.0%0.0%5.00.0%0.0%
49UNLV20.4Mountain West240.0%0.0%11.0100.0%0.0%
50Tulane20.3AmericanNR0.0%0.0%9.0100.0%0.0%
51Memphis19.8American250.0%0.0%11.00.0%0.0%
52Kentucky19.7SECNR0.0%0.0%4.00.0%0.0%
53Boston College18.8ACCNR0.0%0.0%7.00.0%0.0%
54Duke18.5ACCNR0.0%0.0%9.00.0%0.0%
55Marshall18.4Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%10.0100.0%100.0%
56Army18.1American220.0%0.0%12.0100.0%100.0%
57UCLA18.0Big TenNR0.0%0.0%5.00.0%0.0%
58Navy17.7AmericanNR0.0%0.0%10.00.0%0.0%
59Wisconsin17.7Big TenNR0.0%0.0%5.00.0%0.0%
60Ohio17.5MACNR0.0%0.0%11.0100.0%100.0%
61West Virginia17.2Big 12NR0.0%0.0%6.00.0%0.0%
62UTSA15.7AmericanNR0.0%0.0%7.00.0%0.0%
63UCF15.0Big 12NR0.0%0.0%4.00.0%0.0%
64James Madison14.8Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%9.00.0%0.0%
65Virginia14.6ACCNR0.0%0.0%5.00.0%0.0%
66Miami (OH)14.3MACNR0.0%0.0%9.0100.0%0.0%
67NC State14.0ACCNR0.0%0.0%6.00.0%0.0%
68Jacksonville State13.5Conference USANR0.0%0.0%9.0100.0%100.0%
69South Dakota13.4MVFCFCS100.0%0.0%11.00.0%0.0%
70Pitt13.3ACCNR0.0%0.0%7.00.0%0.0%
71Mississippi State13.3SECNR0.0%0.0%2.00.0%0.0%
72California13.3ACCNR0.0%0.0%6.00.0%0.0%
73Maryland13.1Big TenNR0.0%0.0%4.00.0%0.0%
74Cincinnati12.4Big 12NR0.0%0.0%5.00.0%0.0%
75Northwestern12.3Big TenNR0.0%0.0%4.00.0%0.0%
76Arizona11.6Big 12NR0.0%0.0%4.00.0%0.0%
77Washington State11.6Pac-12NR0.0%0.0%8.00.0%0.0%
78Louisiana11.2Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%10.0100.0%0.0%
79Houston11.1Big 12NR0.0%0.0%4.00.0%0.0%
80Texas State11.1Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%8.00.0%0.0%
81Oklahoma State11.0Big 12NR0.0%0.0%3.00.0%0.0%
82North Carolina10.8ACCNR0.0%0.0%6.00.0%0.0%
83South Alabama10.7Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%7.00.0%0.0%
84Oregon State10.4Pac-12NR0.0%0.0%5.00.0%0.0%
85Florida State9.9ACCNR0.0%0.0%2.00.0%0.0%
86East Carolina9.9AmericanNR0.0%0.0%8.00.0%0.0%
87Old Dominion9.8Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%5.00.0%0.0%
88Wake Forest9.7ACCNR0.0%0.0%4.00.0%0.0%
89Fresno State9.6Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%6.00.0%0.0%
90Michigan State9.6Big TenNR0.0%0.0%5.00.0%0.0%
91USF9.1AmericanNR0.0%0.0%7.00.0%0.0%
92UConn8.9FBS IndependentsNR0.0%0.0%9.00.0%0.0%
93Georgia Southern8.5Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%8.00.0%0.0%
94Air Force8.4Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%5.00.0%0.0%
95Troy8.3Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%4.00.0%0.0%
96Buffalo7.8MACNR0.0%0.0%9.00.0%0.0%
97Toledo7.8MACNR0.0%0.0%8.00.0%0.0%
98Bowling Green State7.6MACNR0.0%0.0%7.00.0%0.0%
99UC Davis7.6Big SkyFCS100.0%0.0%11.00.0%0.0%
100Wyoming6.9Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%3.00.0%0.0%
101San Jose State6.7Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%7.00.0%0.0%
102Appalachian State6.2Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%5.00.0%0.0%
103Utah State6.1Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%4.00.0%0.0%
104Colorado State6.1Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%8.00.0%0.0%
105Stanford6.0ACCNR0.0%0.0%3.00.0%0.0%
106Sam Houston5.9Conference USANR0.0%0.0%10.00.0%0.0%
107Northern Illinois5.8MACNR0.0%0.0%8.00.0%0.0%
108Western Kentucky5.4Conference USANR0.0%0.0%8.0100.0%0.0%
109North Texas4.9AmericanNR0.0%0.0%6.00.0%0.0%
110Liberty4.8Conference USANR0.0%0.0%8.00.0%0.0%
111Montana4.2Big SkyFCS100.0%0.0%9.00.0%0.0%
112Rice4.1AmericanNR0.0%0.0%4.00.0%0.0%
113Arkansas State4.1Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%8.00.0%0.0%
114Hawaii3.6Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%5.00.0%0.0%
115New Mexico2.9Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%5.00.0%0.0%
116Idaho2.2Big SkyFCS100.0%0.0%10.00.0%0.0%
117Purdue2.1Big TenNR0.0%0.0%1.00.0%0.0%
118Louisiana Tech2.0Conference USANR0.0%0.0%5.00.0%0.0%
119Mercer1.9SouthernFCS100.0%0.0%11.00.0%100.0%
120Coastal Carolina1.9Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%6.00.0%0.0%
121Western Michigan1.8MACNR0.0%0.0%6.00.0%0.0%
122Northern Arizona1.6Big SkyFCS100.0%0.0%8.00.0%0.0%
123Missouri State0.8MVFCFCS0.0%0.0%8.00.0%0.0%
124Abilene Christian0.3UACFCS100.0%0.0%9.00.0%100.0%
125Nevada-0.2Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%3.00.0%0.0%
126Incarnate Word-0.5SouthlandFCS100.0%0.0%11.00.0%100.0%
127Louisiana Monroe-0.5Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%5.00.0%0.0%
128UAB-1.1AmericanNR0.0%0.0%3.00.0%0.0%
129Chattanooga-1.2SouthernFCS0.0%0.0%7.00.0%0.0%
130Akron-1.3MACNR0.0%0.0%4.00.0%0.0%
131Illinois State-1.7MVFCFCS100.0%0.0%10.00.0%0.0%
132Tarleton-1.7UACFCS100.0%0.0%10.00.0%0.0%
133Delaware-1.8CAAFCS0.0%0.0%9.00.0%0.0%
134Western Carolina-1.9SouthernFCS0.0%0.0%7.00.0%0.0%
135Jackson State-2.2SWACFCS0.0%0.0%12.0100.0%100.0%
136Central Michigan-2.3MACNR0.0%0.0%4.00.0%0.0%
137Ball State-2.3MACNR0.0%0.0%3.00.0%0.0%
138Villanova-2.5CAAFCS100.0%0.0%10.00.0%0.0%
139UT Martin-2.6Big South-OVCFCS100.0%0.0%9.00.0%0.0%
140Charlotte-2.7AmericanNR0.0%0.0%5.00.0%0.0%
141Georgia State-3.0Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%3.00.0%0.0%
142Southern Illinois-3.0MVFCFCS0.0%0.0%4.00.0%0.0%
143Richmond-3.1CAAFCS100.0%0.0%10.00.0%100.0%
144San Diego State-3.2Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%3.00.0%0.0%
145Eastern Washington-3.3Big SkyFCS0.0%0.0%4.00.0%0.0%
146Harvard-3.3IvyFCS0.0%0.0%8.00.0%100.0%
147New Hampshire-3.4CAAFCS100.0%0.0%8.00.0%0.0%
148North Dakota-3.4MVFCFCS0.0%0.0%5.00.0%0.0%
149Stephen F. Austin-3.5SouthlandFCS0.0%0.0%7.00.0%0.0%
150FIU-3.8Conference USANR0.0%0.0%4.00.0%0.0%
151Eastern Michigan-3.9MACNR0.0%0.0%5.00.0%0.0%
152Rhode Island-4.1CAAFCS100.0%0.0%11.00.0%0.0%
153North Carolina Central-4.4MEACFCS0.0%0.0%8.00.0%0.0%
154Southern Utah-4.5UACFCS0.0%0.0%7.00.0%0.0%
155Yale-4.6IvyFCS0.0%0.0%7.00.0%0.0%
156Towson-5.5CAAFCS0.0%0.0%7.00.0%0.0%
157Monmouth-5.6CAAFCS0.0%0.0%6.00.0%0.0%
158UMass-5.7FBS IndependentsNR0.0%0.0%2.00.0%0.0%
159Florida Atlantic-5.7AmericanNR0.0%0.0%3.00.0%0.0%
160Weber State-6.1Big SkyFCS0.0%0.0%4.00.0%0.0%
161Eastern Kentucky-6.5UACFCS100.0%0.0%8.00.0%0.0%
162Southeastern Louisiana-6.8SouthlandFCS0.0%0.0%7.00.0%0.0%
163South Carolina State-6.9MEACFCS0.0%0.0%9.00.0%100.0%
164Portland State-7.2Big SkyFCS0.0%0.0%3.00.0%0.0%
165UTEP-7.3Conference USANR0.0%0.0%3.00.0%0.0%
166Temple-7.3AmericanNR0.0%0.0%3.00.0%0.0%
167Holy Cross-7.5PatriotFCS0.0%0.0%6.00.0%0.0%
168Elon-7.5CAAFCS0.0%0.0%6.00.0%0.0%
169East Tennessee State-7.8SouthernFCS0.0%0.0%7.00.0%0.0%
170Dartmouth-7.9IvyFCS0.0%0.0%8.00.0%100.0%
171Lehigh-8.2PatriotFCS100.0%0.0%9.00.0%100.0%
172New Mexico State-8.3Conference USANR0.0%0.0%3.00.0%0.0%
173Sacramento State-8.4Big SkyFCS0.0%0.0%3.00.0%0.0%
174Youngstown State-8.4MVFCFCS0.0%0.0%4.00.0%0.0%
175Tennessee State-8.4Big South-OVCFCS100.0%0.0%9.00.0%0.0%
176William & Mary-8.5CAAFCS0.0%0.0%7.00.0%0.0%
177Lamar-10.1SouthlandFCS0.0%0.0%7.00.0%0.0%
178Samford-10.2SouthernFCS0.0%0.0%4.00.0%0.0%
179Albany-10.3CAAFCS0.0%0.0%4.00.0%0.0%
180Southeast Missouri State-10.4Big South-OVCFCS100.0%0.0%9.00.0%100.0%
181Tennessee Tech-10.4Big South-OVCFCS0.0%0.0%7.00.0%0.0%
182Northern Iowa-10.5MVFCFCS0.0%0.0%3.00.0%0.0%
183Stony Brook-10.7CAAFCS0.0%0.0%8.00.0%0.0%
184Kennesaw State-10.8Conference USANR0.0%0.0%2.00.0%0.0%
185Middle Tennessee-11.0Conference USANR0.0%0.0%3.00.0%0.0%
186Penn-11.2IvyFCS0.0%0.0%4.00.0%0.0%
187Tulsa-11.3AmericanNR0.0%0.0%3.00.0%0.0%
188Central Arkansas-11.5UACFCS0.0%0.0%6.00.0%0.0%
189Austin Peay-11.6UACFCS0.0%0.0%4.00.0%0.0%
190Furman-11.6SouthernFCS0.0%0.0%3.00.0%0.0%
191Southern Miss-11.8Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%1.00.0%0.0%
192Columbia-12.1IvyFCS0.0%0.0%7.00.0%100.0%
193McNeese-12.1SouthlandFCS0.0%0.0%6.00.0%0.0%
194North Alabama-12.2UACFCS0.0%0.0%3.00.0%0.0%
195Maine-13.1CAAFCS0.0%0.0%5.00.0%0.0%
196Idaho State-13.2Big SkyFCS0.0%0.0%5.00.0%0.0%
197Wofford-13.4SouthernFCS0.0%0.0%5.00.0%0.0%
198The Citadel-13.6SouthernFCS0.0%0.0%5.00.0%0.0%
199Duquesne-14.5NECFCS0.0%0.0%8.00.0%0.0%
200Hampton-14.6CAAFCS0.0%0.0%5.00.0%0.0%
201Nicholls-14.7SouthlandFCS0.0%0.0%4.00.0%0.0%
202San Diego-14.9PioneerFCS0.0%0.0%8.00.0%0.0%
203Butler-15.0PioneerFCS0.0%0.0%9.00.0%0.0%
204Indiana State-15.6MVFCFCS0.0%0.0%4.00.0%0.0%
205Lindenwood-16.1Big South-OVCFCS0.0%0.0%5.00.0%0.0%
206Princeton-16.1IvyFCS0.0%0.0%3.00.0%0.0%
207Merrimack-16.4FCS IndependentsFCS0.0%0.0%5.00.0%0.0%
208Bucknell-17.2PatriotFCS0.0%0.0%6.00.0%0.0%
209Lafayette-17.3PatriotFCS0.0%0.0%6.00.0%0.0%
210Cornell-17.3IvyFCS0.0%0.0%4.00.0%0.0%
211Central Connecticut State-17.4NECFCS100.0%0.0%7.00.0%100.0%
212Cal Poly-17.4Big SkyFCS0.0%0.0%3.00.0%0.0%
213Florida A&M-17.5SWACFCS0.0%0.0%7.00.0%0.0%
214Gardner-Webb-17.8Big South-OVCFCS0.0%0.0%4.00.0%0.0%
215Campbell-18.2CAAFCS0.0%0.0%3.00.0%0.0%
216Drake-18.6PioneerFCS100.0%0.0%8.00.0%100.0%
217West Georgia-18.6UACFCS0.0%0.0%4.00.0%0.0%
218Alabama State-18.6SWACFCS0.0%0.0%7.00.0%0.0%
219Bryant-19.1CAAFCS0.0%0.0%2.00.0%0.0%
220Houston Christian-19.2SouthlandFCS0.0%0.0%5.00.0%0.0%
221Utah Tech-19.3UACFCS0.0%0.0%1.00.0%0.0%
222LIU-19.5NECFCS0.0%0.0%4.00.0%0.0%
223Morgan State-20.0MEACFCS0.0%0.0%6.00.0%0.0%
224Fordham-20.3PatriotFCS0.0%0.0%2.00.0%0.0%
225Robert Morris-20.3NECFCS0.0%0.0%7.00.0%0.0%
226Presbyterian-20.6PioneerFCS0.0%0.0%6.00.0%0.0%
227Alcorn State-20.7SWACFCS0.0%0.0%6.00.0%0.0%
228Kent State-20.7MACNR0.0%0.0%0.00.0%0.0%
229Southern-21.7SWACFCS0.0%0.0%8.0100.0%0.0%
230Charleston Southern-21.9Big South-OVCFCS0.0%0.0%1.00.0%0.0%
231Texas A&M-Commerce-22.2SouthlandFCS0.0%0.0%3.00.0%0.0%
232Alabama A&M-22.7SWACFCS0.0%0.0%6.00.0%0.0%
233Eastern Illinois-22.8Big South-OVCFCS0.0%0.0%3.00.0%0.0%
234Saint Francis (PA)-23.0NECFCS0.0%0.0%4.00.0%0.0%
235VMI-23.1SouthernFCS0.0%0.0%1.00.0%0.0%
236St. Thomas-23.5PioneerFCS0.0%0.0%6.00.0%0.0%
237Western Illinois-23.8Big South-OVCFCS0.0%0.0%4.00.0%0.0%
238Davidson-24.0PioneerFCS0.0%0.0%6.00.0%0.0%
239Prairie View A&M-24.2SWACFCS0.0%0.0%5.00.0%0.0%
240Murray State-24.3MVFCFCS0.0%0.0%1.00.0%0.0%
241Colgate-25.0PatriotFCS0.0%0.0%2.00.0%0.0%
242Brown-25.3IvyFCS0.0%0.0%3.00.0%0.0%
243Norfolk State-25.6MEACFCS0.0%0.0%4.00.0%0.0%
244Sacred Heart-25.9FCS IndependentsFCS0.0%0.0%5.00.0%0.0%
245North Carolina A&T-26.5CAAFCS0.0%0.0%1.00.0%0.0%
246Bethune-Cookman-26.9SWACFCS0.0%0.0%2.00.0%0.0%
247Grambling State-27.2SWACFCS0.0%0.0%5.00.0%0.0%
248Morehead State-27.5PioneerFCS0.0%0.0%7.00.0%0.0%
249Howard-27.7MEACFCS0.0%0.0%4.00.0%0.0%
250Texas Southern-27.7SWACFCS0.0%0.0%5.00.0%0.0%
251Dayton-27.8PioneerFCS0.0%0.0%6.00.0%0.0%
252Mercyhurst-28.0NECFCS0.0%0.0%4.00.0%0.0%
253Northern Colorado-28.6Big SkyFCS0.0%0.0%1.00.0%0.0%
254Georgetown-29.2PatriotFCS0.0%0.0%5.00.0%0.0%
255Wagner-29.8NECFCS0.0%0.0%4.00.0%0.0%
256Valparaiso-32.3PioneerFCS0.0%0.0%4.00.0%0.0%
257Stonehill-35.4NECFCS0.0%0.0%1.00.0%0.0%
258Arkansas-Pine Bluff-39.0SWACFCS0.0%0.0%3.00.0%0.0%
259Delaware State-39.0MEACFCS0.0%0.0%1.00.0%0.0%
260Mississippi Valley State-40.1SWACFCS0.0%0.0%1.00.0%0.0%
261Marist-40.5PioneerFCS0.0%0.0%1.00.0%0.0%
262Northwestern State-44.6SouthlandFCS0.0%0.0%0.00.0%0.0%
263Stetson-46.0PioneerFCS0.0%0.0%2.00.0%0.0%

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