College Football Playoff Probabilities

Below you can find our college football probabilities and Movelor ratings for all FBS schools. Here’s how it all works. If you’re interested in more Movelor data, including this week’s predictions, that can be found through this menu.

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Last Updated: Sunday, September 15th, 7:42 AM EDT

RankTeamMovelorConferenceAverage Final CFP RankingMake PlayoffNational ChampionshipExpected Regular Season WinsMake Conference ChampionshipWin Conference
1Texas47.6SEC494.0%20.3%11.263.1%37.6%
2Alabama45.9SEC683.4%14.6%10.537.7%21.0%
3Ohio State44.5Big Ten780.2%12.8%10.650.9%33.0%
4Georgia44.2SEC780.1%12.5%9.819.5%11.6%
5Oregon41.6Big Ten1064.3%8.0%10.546.7%25.6%
6Mississippi40.7SEC1163.7%6.5%10.534.8%14.5%
7Notre Dame40.3FBS Independents1257.5%4.3%10.20.0%0.0%
8Michigan39.3Big Ten1540.2%4.1%9.032.9%16.5%
9Tennessee39.0SEC1157.9%4.8%10.018.6%8.3%
10Penn State38.6Big Ten1355.3%4.4%10.342.7%18.5%
11Missouri32.1SEC2029.4%1.1%9.511.0%3.2%
12Kansas State31.8Big 121646.8%1.1%10.048.6%29.0%
13Clemson31.6ACC2138.6%1.2%9.254.8%34.1%
14Oklahoma30.4SECNR11.7%0.6%7.11.4%0.5%
15LSU29.5SECNR5.1%0.2%7.66.4%1.7%
16Oklahoma State28.8Big 122427.6%0.5%9.128.6%16.3%
17USC28.6Big TenNR10.7%0.4%7.68.4%2.6%
18Miami (FL)28.3ACC2032.3%0.4%9.330.2%16.9%
19Texas A&M27.4SECNR7.1%0.2%7.77.2%1.6%
20Utah26.9Big 12NR22.2%0.3%8.924.4%12.6%
21Florida State26.3ACCNR0.6%0.0%5.41.9%1.2%
22Washington26.2Big TenNR2.6%0.1%6.53.6%1.0%
23Louisville26.0ACCNR19.2%0.3%7.925.9%13.8%
24Washington State25.5Pac-122227.2%0.2%10.20.0%0.0%
25Maryland24.6Big TenNR1.3%0.0%7.01.2%0.3%
26UCF24.2Big 12NR17.0%0.2%8.726.5%11.4%
27Arizona23.8Big 12NR8.0%0.1%7.517.0%7.4%
28Memphis23.7American2435.1%0.1%10.552.3%37.6%
29Kentucky23.7SECNR0.2%0.0%5.80.0%0.0%
30Georgia Tech22.2ACCNR3.2%0.1%6.36.4%3.1%
31South Carolina22.1SECNR0.8%0.0%6.20.1%0.0%
32Iowa State21.8Big 12NR8.9%0.1%7.912.9%5.8%
33Iowa21.6Big TenNR1.1%0.0%6.63.3%0.7%
34BYU20.8Big 12NR5.9%0.1%7.37.4%3.3%
35Oregon State20.7Pac-12NR2.3%0.0%8.00.0%0.0%
36West Virginia20.6Big 12NR2.0%0.1%5.37.2%3.2%
37Auburn20.6SECNR0.3%0.0%5.80.2%0.0%
38Rutgers20.5Big TenNR3.1%0.1%7.15.1%1.0%
39Virginia Tech20.4ACCNR4.1%0.0%6.911.6%5.2%
40Nebraska20.4Big TenNR2.6%0.0%7.32.3%0.3%
41TCU20.1Big 12NR2.2%0.0%6.53.9%1.7%
42Boise State20.1Mountain WestNR11.3%0.0%8.549.6%29.6%
43California19.8ACCNR7.8%0.0%8.112.7%4.8%
44Texas Tech19.8Big 12NR3.4%0.0%6.88.7%3.6%
45Kansas19.7Big 12NR1.6%0.0%5.36.0%2.5%
46Duke19.6ACCNR6.4%0.0%7.98.7%3.8%
47Illinois19.1Big TenNR0.9%0.0%6.70.7%0.1%
48South Dakota State19.0MVFCFCSFCSFCS9.6FCSFCS
49SMU18.9ACCNR3.3%0.0%6.910.8%4.2%
50UNLV18.6Mountain WestNR14.0%0.0%9.342.8%24.9%
51Tulane18.3AmericanNR4.0%0.0%7.841.4%23.2%
52Florida18.1SECNR0.0%0.0%3.20.0%0.0%
53Baylor17.7Big 12NR1.7%0.0%6.05.2%1.9%
54North Carolina17.6ACCNR5.1%0.0%7.89.3%3.5%
55James Madison17.6Sun BeltNR12.8%0.0%9.550.6%31.2%
56Arkansas17.6SECNR0.3%0.0%4.80.1%0.0%
57Fresno State17.1Mountain WestNR4.4%0.0%8.143.3%21.0%
58Minnesota16.8Big TenNR0.2%0.0%4.90.5%0.1%
59Wisconsin16.6Big TenNR0.1%0.0%5.00.5%0.1%
60NC State16.5ACCNR2.2%0.0%6.75.9%2.3%
61North Dakota State16.3MVFCFCSFCSFCS9.4FCSFCS
62Indiana16.1Big TenNR1.0%0.0%6.80.8%0.1%
63UCLA15.8Big TenNR0.0%0.0%3.90.1%0.0%
64Boston College15.3ACCNR3.3%0.0%6.69.1%3.1%
65Northwestern15.2Big TenNR0.0%0.0%4.70.2%0.0%
66San Jose State15.2Mountain WestNR4.7%0.0%8.132.0%16.0%
67Pitt14.5ACCNR2.1%0.0%7.03.5%1.3%
68Purdue14.4Big TenNR0.0%0.0%3.90.2%0.0%
69Toledo14.0MACNR12.9%0.0%9.444.5%27.0%
70Syracuse14.0ACCNR3.5%0.0%7.06.4%2.1%
71USF13.5AmericanNR2.7%0.0%7.419.8%9.0%
72Troy13.4Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%6.330.7%14.5%
73Arizona State13.4Big 12NR0.7%0.0%5.61.0%0.3%
74Michigan State13.0Big TenNR0.1%0.0%5.50.1%0.0%
75Houston12.5Big 12NR0.2%0.0%3.71.1%0.5%
76Liberty12.5Conference USANR12.7%0.0%9.876.6%48.4%
77UTSA12.4AmericanNR1.0%0.0%7.322.4%9.8%
78Montana12.4Big SkyFCSFCSFCS9.6FCSFCS
79South Alabama12.2Sun BeltNR0.1%0.0%6.327.3%12.9%
80Colorado12.2Big 12NR0.3%0.0%4.61.0%0.4%
81Appalachian State12.1Sun BeltNR2.1%0.0%7.216.8%9.7%
82Mississippi State11.9SECNR0.0%0.0%3.30.0%0.0%
83Coastal Carolina11.6Sun BeltNR3.0%0.0%8.113.7%7.6%
84Virginia11.3ACCNR0.3%0.0%4.62.4%0.7%
85Idaho10.9Big SkyFCSFCSFCS9.2FCSFCS
86Cincinnati10.3Big 12NR0.1%0.0%4.60.7%0.2%
87Miami (OH)10.3MACNR0.1%0.0%6.027.2%14.8%
88Montana State10.0Big SkyFCSFCSFCS10.1FCSFCS
89Army9.6AmericanNR2.9%0.0%7.330.0%9.6%
90Bowling Green State9.5MACNR1.2%0.0%7.131.6%16.3%
91Louisiana8.9Sun BeltNR1.5%0.0%7.115.6%6.7%
92Ohio8.8MACNR0.5%0.0%7.429.4%14.2%
93Air Force8.6Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%6.18.0%2.5%
94Texas State8.4Sun BeltNR0.6%0.0%7.316.6%6.3%
95East Carolina7.9AmericanNR0.6%0.0%7.317.7%5.8%
96Wake Forest7.6ACCNR0.0%0.0%3.80.1%0.0%
97Western Kentucky7.4Conference USANR1.8%0.0%7.342.5%20.6%
98Vanderbilt7.2SECNR0.0%0.0%3.30.0%0.0%
99Northern Illinois6.6MACNR2.7%0.0%7.616.8%8.5%
100Wyoming6.3Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%4.211.6%3.4%
101Georgia State6.2Sun BeltNR0.2%0.0%6.36.1%2.7%
102Villanova6.1CAAFCSFCSFCS10.1FCSFCS
103Southern Illinois6.1MVFCFCSFCSFCS7.8FCSFCS
104Stanford5.8ACCNR0.0%0.0%3.00.4%0.1%
105Jacksonville State5.8Conference USANR0.0%0.0%5.932.6%14.5%
106UAB5.2AmericanNR0.0%0.0%5.33.5%1.1%
107Navy5.0AmericanNR0.3%0.0%5.13.9%1.3%
108Marshall4.7Sun BeltNR0.1%0.0%5.57.1%3.0%
109North Texas4.4AmericanNR0.1%0.0%5.93.8%1.3%
110South Dakota4.3MVFCFCSFCSFCS6.5FCSFCS
111Arkansas State3.9Sun BeltNR0.1%0.0%5.77.3%2.3%
112Georgia Southern3.8Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%4.83.0%1.4%
113Florida Atlantic3.6AmericanNR0.0%0.0%6.02.4%0.5%
114North Dakota3.5MVFCFCSFCSFCS7.6FCSFCS
115Northern Arizona3.2Big SkyFCSFCSFCS7.6FCSFCS
116Ball State3.2MACNR0.1%0.0%5.613.4%5.7%
117Sacramento State3.1Big SkyFCSFCSFCS7.4FCSFCS
118Eastern Michigan2.7MACNR0.2%0.0%7.213.6%5.0%
119Furman2.6SouthernFCSFCSFCS7.7FCSFCS
120San Diego State2.5Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%4.53.5%1.0%
121Mercer2.3SouthernFCSFCSFCS9.3FCSFCS
122Old Dominion2.3Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%3.12.9%1.2%
123Incarnate Word1.9SouthlandFCSFCSFCS8.5FCSFCS
124Sam Houston1.9Conference USANR0.5%0.0%6.820.8%8.4%
125Central Arkansas1.8UACFCSFCSFCS9.3FCSFCS
126New Mexico State1.6Conference USANR0.0%0.0%5.611.0%4.0%
127Buffalo1.6MACNR0.3%0.0%6.48.9%3.5%
128Rice1.5AmericanNR0.0%0.0%4.01.1%0.4%
129Weber State1.3Big SkyFCSFCSFCS6.9FCSFCS
130Delaware1.3CAAFCSFCSFCS8.5FCSFCS
131Utah State0.9Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%4.63.5%0.7%
132UC Davis0.6Big SkyFCSFCSFCS7.5FCSFCS
133Western Michigan0.3MACNR0.0%0.0%5.39.9%3.3%
134UConn0.0FBS IndependentsNR0.0%0.0%5.40.0%0.0%
135Central Michigan-1.1MACNR0.0%0.0%4.13.3%1.4%
136Southern Miss-1.2Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%3.72.0%0.4%
137Youngstown State-1.3MVFCFCSFCSFCS4.8FCSFCS
138Missouri State-1.3MVFCFCSFCSFCS5.4FCSFCS
139William & Mary-1.6CAAFCSFCSFCS8.4FCSFCS
140New Hampshire-1.6CAAFCSFCSFCS7.7FCSFCS
141Richmond-1.7CAAFCSFCSFCS7.4FCSFCS
142Tulsa-1.9AmericanNR0.0%0.0%4.01.5%0.4%
143Elon-2.0CAAFCSFCSFCS7.3FCSFCS
144New Mexico-2.4Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%2.83.1%0.5%
145Yale-2.4IvyFCSFCSFCS7.4FCSFCS
146Colorado State-2.8Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%4.01.9%0.3%
147Western Carolina-3.0SouthernFCSFCSFCS6.2FCSFCS
148Albany-3.2CAAFCSFCSFCS7.2FCSFCS
149Holy Cross-4.0PatriotFCSFCSFCS6.8FCSFCS
150UTEP-4.0Conference USANR0.0%0.0%3.84.8%1.1%
151Southern Utah-4.3UACFCSFCSFCS6.8FCSFCS
152Northern Iowa-4.5MVFCFCSFCSFCS5.4FCSFCS
153Louisiana Tech-4.5Conference USANR0.0%0.0%5.18.1%2.1%
154Illinois State-4.5MVFCFCSFCSFCS6.3FCSFCS
155Nevada-4.5Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%3.30.3%0.1%
156Louisiana Monroe-4.5Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%3.90.6%0.1%
157Chattanooga-4.7SouthernFCSFCSFCS5.7FCSFCS
158UT Martin-4.9Big South-OVCFCSFCSFCS7.6FCSFCS
159Gardner-Webb-4.9Big South-OVCFCSFCSFCS6.9FCSFCS
160Harvard-5.0IvyFCSFCSFCS6.7FCSFCS
161Southeast Missouri State-5.1Big South-OVCFCSFCSFCS8.6FCSFCS
162Charlotte-5.2AmericanNR0.0%0.0%2.60.2%0.0%
163Hawaii-5.4Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%3.40.5%0.1%
164Abilene Christian-5.5UACFCSFCSFCS6.8FCSFCS
165Lafayette-5.7PatriotFCSFCSFCS9.1FCSFCS
166Tarleton-5.9UACFCSFCSFCS7.6FCSFCS
167Middle Tennessee-6.0Conference USANR0.0%0.0%3.82.3%0.7%
168Akron-6.4MACNR0.0%0.0%3.31.4%0.3%
169Dartmouth-6.9IvyFCSFCSFCS6.9FCSFCS
170Rhode Island-7.6CAAFCSFCSFCS7.5FCSFCS
171Nicholls-8.5SouthlandFCSFCSFCS6.3FCSFCS
172Austin Peay-8.8UACFCSFCSFCS5.7FCSFCS
173Princeton-8.8IvyFCSFCSFCS5.8FCSFCS
174Temple-8.9AmericanNR0.0%0.0%1.90.0%0.0%
175Samford-9.1SouthernFCSFCSFCS5.6FCSFCS
176Towson-9.5CAAFCSFCSFCS6.0FCSFCS
177Campbell-9.9CAAFCSFCSFCS6.0FCSFCS
178Stephen F. Austin-10.3SouthlandFCSFCSFCS6.4FCSFCS
179Monmouth-10.4CAAFCSFCSFCS5.3FCSFCS
180FIU-10.4Conference USANR0.0%0.0%3.91.6%0.3%
181Eastern Kentucky-10.6UACFCSFCSFCS5.9FCSFCS
182Eastern Washington-10.6Big SkyFCSFCSFCS3.4FCSFCS
183Kennesaw State-10.9Conference USANR0.0%0.0%2.50.0%0.0%
184Penn-11.0IvyFCSFCSFCS5.3FCSFCS
185Wofford-11.2SouthernFCSFCSFCS5.5FCSFCS
186Lamar-11.8SouthlandFCSFCSFCS7.0FCSFCS
187Southeastern Louisiana-12.1SouthlandFCSFCSFCS5.4FCSFCS
188Portland State-12.4Big SkyFCSFCSFCS2.1FCSFCS
189Eastern Illinois-12.6Big South-OVCFCSFCSFCS5.8FCSFCS
190East Tennessee State-12.8SouthernFCSFCSFCS4.4FCSFCS
191Jackson State-12.9SWACFCSFCSFCS8.5FCSFCS
192North Carolina Central-13.6MEACFCSFCSFCS6.7FCSFCS
193Florida A&M-13.8SWACFCSFCSFCS7.8FCSFCS
194Butler-13.9PioneerFCSFCSFCS10.2FCSFCS
195Tennessee Tech-14.3Big South-OVCFCSFCSFCS5.4FCSFCS
196Idaho State-14.3Big SkyFCSFCSFCS3.4FCSFCS
197UMass-14.7FBS IndependentsNR0.0%0.0%2.20.0%0.0%
198Bryant-14.8CAAFCSFCSFCS4.4FCSFCS
199Morgan State-15.8MEACFCSFCSFCS7.6FCSFCS
200Alabama State-16.2SWACFCSFCSFCS7.2FCSFCS
201Murray State-16.8MVFCFCSFCSFCS2.2FCSFCS
202North Alabama-16.9UACFCSFCSFCS3.0FCSFCS
203Northern Colorado-17.1Big SkyFCSFCSFCS2.1FCSFCS
204Brown-17.3IvyFCSFCSFCS3.9FCSFCS
205Indiana State-17.4MVFCFCSFCSFCS3.2FCSFCS
206Colgate-17.5PatriotFCSFCSFCS4.3FCSFCS
207Kent State-17.6MACNR0.0%0.0%0.90.1%0.0%
208Saint Francis (PA)-18.4NECFCSFCSFCS5.9FCSFCS
209Maine-18.4CAAFCSFCSFCS2.7FCSFCS
210Howard-18.5MEACFCSFCSFCS7.1FCSFCS
211Columbia-18.9IvyFCSFCSFCS3.7FCSFCS
212McNeese-19.3SouthlandFCSFCSFCS5.3FCSFCS
213Utah Tech-19.4UACFCSFCSFCS2.4FCSFCS
214Duquesne-19.5NECFCSFCSFCS6.6FCSFCS
215Alcorn State-19.6SWACFCSFCSFCS6.1FCSFCS
216Fordham-19.8PatriotFCSFCSFCS3.4FCSFCS
217Grambling State-19.9SWACFCSFCSFCS6.7FCSFCS
218Merrimack-20.0FCS IndependentsFCSFCSFCS5.2FCSFCS
219South Carolina State-20.3MEACFCSFCSFCS5.6FCSFCS
220St. Thomas-20.8PioneerFCSFCSFCS6.7FCSFCS
221Lehigh-21.7PatriotFCSFCSFCS4.7FCSFCS
222Georgetown-21.7PatriotFCSFCSFCS5.1FCSFCS
223Davidson-21.7PioneerFCSFCSFCS7.2FCSFCS
224San Diego-21.8PioneerFCSFCSFCS7.1FCSFCS
225VMI-22.0SouthernFCSFCSFCS2.4FCSFCS
226Drake-22.2PioneerFCSFCSFCS6.0FCSFCS
227Tennessee State-22.3Big South-OVCFCSFCSFCS5.1FCSFCS
228LIU-22.3NECFCSFCSFCS3.9FCSFCS
229Charleston Southern-22.5Big South-OVCFCSFCSFCS3.7FCSFCS
230Lindenwood-22.5Big South-OVCFCSFCSFCS3.3FCSFCS
231Houston Christian-22.5SouthlandFCSFCSFCS3.9FCSFCS
232Texas Southern-22.6SWACFCSFCSFCS5.6FCSFCS
233Bucknell-22.8PatriotFCSFCSFCS4.8FCSFCS
234Hampton-22.8CAAFCSFCSFCS3.7FCSFCS
235The Citadel-23.1SouthernFCSFCSFCS3.5FCSFCS
236Southern-23.6SWACFCSFCSFCS4.8FCSFCS
237Cal Poly-24.2Big SkyFCSFCSFCS1.8FCSFCS
238Cornell-24.5IvyFCSFCSFCS2.2FCSFCS
239Stony Brook-24.5CAAFCSFCSFCS3.4FCSFCS
240Dayton-24.6PioneerFCSFCSFCS6.3FCSFCS
241Robert Morris-24.8NECFCSFCSFCS5.3FCSFCS
242Texas A&M-Commerce-25.1SouthlandFCSFCSFCS2.8FCSFCS
243Prairie View A&M-25.1SWACFCSFCSFCS4.9FCSFCS
244North Carolina A&T-25.7CAAFCSFCSFCS2.5FCSFCS
245Bethune-Cookman-27.5SWACFCSFCSFCS3.6FCSFCS
246Central Connecticut State-27.7NECFCSFCSFCS5.3FCSFCS
247Alabama A&M-28.3SWACFCSFCSFCS5.3FCSFCS
248Norfolk State-28.6MEACFCSFCSFCS3.5FCSFCS
249Sacred Heart-28.7FCS IndependentsFCSFCSFCS4.7FCSFCS
250West Georgia-29.2UACFCSFCSFCS3.3FCSFCS
251Wagner-29.6NECFCSFCSFCS4.6FCSFCS
252Stonehill-30.0NECFCSFCSFCS3.0FCSFCS
253Valparaiso-30.7PioneerFCSFCSFCS4.9FCSFCS
254Morehead State-31.7PioneerFCSFCSFCS4.6FCSFCS
255Presbyterian-31.7PioneerFCSFCSFCS5.0FCSFCS
256Delaware State-33.6MEACFCSFCSFCS2.5FCSFCS
257Western Illinois-33.9Big South-OVCFCSFCSFCS1.7FCSFCS
258Mercyhurst-34.3NECFCSFCSFCS3.8FCSFCS
259Stetson-34.6PioneerFCSFCSFCS4.5FCSFCS
260Mississippi Valley State-37.0SWACFCSFCSFCS1.8FCSFCS
261Arkansas-Pine Bluff-37.4SWACFCSFCSFCS2.8FCSFCS
262Northwestern State-37.9SouthlandFCSFCSFCS0.7FCSFCS
263Marist-40.1PioneerFCSFCSFCS1.7FCSFCS

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