College Football Playoff Probabilities

Below you’ll find the latest outputs from our college football bracketology model, which uses our Movelor power-rating system and FPA-based playoff selection model to simulate the remainder of the college football system 10,000 times every day. What are Movelor and FPA? More on that below. Things to know:

  • This model has a strong track record. We’ve been publishing its outputs since 2019, gradually improving it over the years. It’s accurately predicted all but three playoff teams over its six seasons, as measured on Selection Sunday.
  • This is best viewed on a desktop, which also makes it easier to use the table search function. Type “FBS” and sort by your desired variable. Or type “FCS,” if that’s your thing.
  • If viewing on a mobile phone, sometimes tapping your screen twice with two fingers will zoom out your window enough to see the full table.
  • Our model doesn’t always account for every single conference tiebreaker scenario. Here’s what it does account for right now.


More resources from and about our model:


Last Updated: Monday, January 5th, 3:46 PM EST

SubdivisionConferenceTeamMovelorMake PlayoffAverage Final RankingProjected WinsNational ChampionshipConference TitleConference Championship Appearance*
FBSBig TenIndiana48.5100%114.935%100%100%
FBSBig TenOregon46.5100%513.727%0%0%
FBSACCMiami (FL)41.9100%1012.823%0%0%
FBSSECMississippi40.6100%613.615%0%0%
FCSBig SkyMontana State21.9100%213.880%100%0%
FCSMVFCIllinois State9.2100%1812.220%0%0%
FBSBig TenOhio State45.2100%212.00%0%100%
FBSFBS IndependentsNotre Dame43.70%1110.00%0%0%
FBSBig 12Texas Tech42.5100%412.00%100%100%
FBSSECGeorgia39.1100%312.00%100%100%
FBSSECTexas37.70%1310.00%0%0%
FBSBig 12Utah37.60%1511.00%0%0%
FBSBig TenPenn State35.50%437.00%0%0%
FBSSECVanderbilt35.50%1410.00%0%0%
FBSSECAlabama34.9100%911.00%0%100%
FBSBig TenIowa34.30%239.00%0%0%
FBSBig TenWashington33.30%269.00%0%0%
FBSSECOklahoma32.1100%810.00%0%0%
FBSSECTexas A&M31.8100%711.00%0%0%
FBSACCSMU30.50%299.00%0%0%
FBSBig 12BYU30.00%1212.00%0%100%
FBSSECMissouri29.80%318.00%0%0%
FBSBig TenUSC29.80%169.00%0%0%
FBSSECSouth Carolina28.20%714.00%0%0%
FBSSun BeltJames Madison27.8100%2412.00%100%100%
FBSSECAuburn27.80%585.00%0%0%
FBSSECLSU27.70%377.00%0%0%
FBSBig TenIllinois27.40%309.00%0%0%
FBSBig 12Arizona27.30%179.00%0%0%
FBSSECTennessee27.20%328.00%0%0%
FBSBig 12TCU27.10%369.00%0%0%
FBSBig TenMichigan26.80%189.00%0%0%
FBSACCClemson26.80%487.00%0%0%
FBSACCDuke25.90%359.00%100%100%
FBSACCLouisville25.50%269.00%0%0%
FBSACCVirginia25.20%1911.00%0%100%
FBSSECFlorida25.20%634.00%0%0%
FBSACCGeorgia Tech24.90%229.00%0%0%
FBSAmericanUSF24.70%279.00%0%0%
FBSBig 12Iowa State24.50%388.00%0%0%
FBSBig 12Arizona State24.00%338.00%0%0%
FBSBig 12Houston23.70%2110.00%0%0%
FBSBig 12Kansas State22.90%476.00%0%0%
FBSBig TenNorthwestern22.60%527.00%0%0%
FCSMVFCNorth Dakota State22.3100%112.00%100%0%
FBSACCNC State21.70%408.00%0%0%
FBSACCPitt21.50%348.00%0%0%
FBSSECArkansas21.30%1032.00%0%0%
FBSAmericanNorth Texas21.20%2512.00%0%100%
FBSPac-12Washington State21.20%617.00%0%0%
FBSSun BeltOld Dominion21.00%4210.00%0%0%
FBSACCWake Forest20.90%449.00%0%0%
FBSBig TenWisconsin20.90%674.00%0%0%
FBSMACToledo20.40%548.00%0%0%
FBSSECKentucky20.20%605.00%0%0%
FBSBig TenRutgers19.60%685.00%0%0%
FBSAmericanEast Carolina19.60%539.00%0%0%
FBSBig TenNebraska19.30%507.00%0%0%
FBSMountain WestBoise State19.10%519.00%100%100%
FBSBig 12Kansas18.80%645.00%0%0%
FBSBig TenMichigan State18.50%904.00%0%0%
FBSAmericanTulane18.2100%2011.00%100%100%
FBSBig TenMinnesota17.90%558.00%0%0%
FBSBig 12Cincinnati17.60%417.00%0%0%
FBSMACWestern Michigan17.10%7010.00%100%100%
FBSSECMississippi State17.10%565.00%0%0%
FBSBig 12Baylor17.00%665.00%0%0%
FBSBig 12West Virginia16.90%744.00%0%0%
FBSACCFlorida State16.40%495.00%0%0%
FBSAmericanMemphis16.20%628.00%0%0%
FBSAmericanNavy15.70%2811.00%0%0%
FBSMountain WestSan Diego State15.70%469.00%0%0%
FBSAmericanUTSA15.30%807.00%0%0%
FBSMountain WestFresno State14.80%779.00%0%0%
FBSSun BeltTexas State14.60%857.00%0%0%
FBSBig 12UCF14.50%755.00%0%0%
FBSMountain WestUNLV14.30%6510.00%0%100%
FBSAmericanArmy14.20%957.00%0%0%
FBSMountain WestNew Mexico13.80%579.00%0%0%
FBSBig TenUCLA13.80%863.00%0%0%
FBSBig 12Colorado13.60%893.00%0%0%
FBSMountain WestHawaii13.40%739.00%0%0%
FBSACCBoston College13.00%1112.00%0%0%
FCSUACTarleton State13.0100%412.00%0%0%
FBSMACOhio13.00%819.00%0%0%
FBSMountain WestUtah State12.70%786.00%0%0%
FCSBig SkyMontana12.6100%313.00%0%0%
FBSACCCalifornia12.20%597.00%0%0%
FBSFBS IndependentsUConn12.10%699.00%0%0%
FBSACCVirginia Tech11.60%943.00%0%0%
FBSConference USAWestern Kentucky11.50%729.00%0%0%
FBSACCStanford11.50%794.00%0%0%
FBSBig TenMaryland10.50%934.00%0%0%
FBSBig TenPurdue9.30%1132.00%0%0%
FBSSun BeltTroy9.20%848.00%0%100%
FBSMountain WestAir Force8.80%1064.00%0%0%
FBSMACMiami (OH)8.50%827.00%0%100%
FBSACCNorth Carolina8.00%964.00%0%0%
FBSConference USALouisiana Tech7.60%768.00%0%0%
FBSSun BeltArkansas State7.00%1057.00%0%0%
FCSMVFCNorth Dakota6.8100%248.00%0%0%
FCSMVFCSouth Dakota State6.8100%149.00%0%0%
FCSSouthlandStephen F. Austin6.7100%711.00%100%0%
FBSSun BeltGeorgia Southern6.50%977.00%0%0%
FBSConference USAJacksonville State6.30%839.00%0%100%
FBSSun BeltLouisiana6.00%1026.00%0%0%
FCSCAAVillanova5.4100%1212.00%0%0%
FBSBig 12Oklahoma State5.30%1311.00%0%0%
FBSACCSyracuse5.20%1043.00%0%0%
FBSConference USAKennesaw State4.70%4510.00%100%100%
FBSSun BeltMarshall4.50%985.00%0%0%
FBSConference USAFIU4.40%887.00%0%0%
FCSUACAbilene Christian4.3100%109.00%100%0%
FCSMVFCSouth Dakota3.6100%1110.00%0%0%
FCSPatriotLehigh3.3100%512.00%100%0%
FCSBig SkyUC Davis3.3100%89.00%0%0%
FBSSun BeltSouth Alabama3.10%1184.00%0%0%
FBSSun BeltSouthern Miss3.10%927.00%0%0%
FBSMACCentral Michigan2.90%877.00%0%0%
FCSSouthernMercer2.7100%69.00%100%0%
FBSMACEastern Michigan2.50%1214.00%0%0%
FCSIvyYale2.1100%179.00%100%0%
FBSAmericanTemple1.90%995.00%0%0%
FBSConference USADelaware1.90%1007.00%0%0%
FBSAmericanFlorida Atlantic1.90%1084.00%0%0%
FBSMountain WestWyoming1.50%1194.00%0%0%
FBSConference USAMissouri State1.20%917.00%0%0%
FCSBig SkySacramento State1.00%337.00%0%0%
FBSConference USALiberty0.90%1074.00%0%0%
FBSMountain WestNevada0.80%1243.00%0%0%
FCSMVFCSouthern Illinois0.70%327.00%0%0%
FBSPac-12Oregon State0.50%1272.00%0%0%
FCSBig SkyIdaho State0.30%406.00%0%0%
FCSMVFCYoungstown State0.0100%158.00%0%0%
FBSMACBowling Green State0.00%1164.00%0%0%
FBSMountain WestSan Jose State-0.40%1253.00%0%0%
FCSUACSouthern Utah-0.50%287.00%0%0%
FBSSun BeltAppalachian State-0.70%1155.00%0%0%
FBSAmericanTulsa-0.90%1204.00%0%0%
FBSMACBuffalo-0.90%1105.00%0%0%
FBSMACAkron-0.90%1145.00%0%0%
FBSConference USAMiddle Tennessee-1.30%1303.00%0%0%
FCSSouthernWestern Carolina-1.60%417.00%0%0%
FBSSun BeltCoastal Carolina-1.70%1016.00%0%0%
FCSUACAustin Peay-1.80%277.00%0%0%
FCSBig South-OVCTennessee Tech-2.5100%1311.00%100%0%
FCSCAARhode Island-2.9100%911.00%100%0%
FCSIvyHarvard-3.0100%179.00%0%0%
FBSAmericanUAB-3.10%1124.00%0%0%
FBSConference USANew Mexico State-3.60%1224.00%0%0%
FBSSun BeltGeorgia State-3.80%1341.00%0%0%
FCSSouthlandSoutheastern Louisiana-3.8100%169.00%0%0%
FCSBig SkyIdaho-3.90%704.00%0%0%
FCSBig SkyNorthern Arizona-4.00%297.00%0%0%
FBSMountain WestColorado State-4.10%1292.00%0%0%
FCSSWACAlabama State-4.20%2610.00%0%0%
FCSCAAMonmouth-4.40%259.00%0%0%
FBSAmericanRice-4.60%1095.00%0%0%
FCSCAANew Hampshire-4.6100%308.00%0%0%
FBSMACNorthern Illinois-4.80%1283.00%0%0%
FBSSun BeltLouisiana Monroe-5.40%1263.00%0%0%
FCSSouthernEast Tennessee State-5.40%367.00%0%0%
FCSUACEastern Kentucky-5.40%555.00%0%0%
FCSSouthlandIncarnate Word-5.40%635.00%0%0%
FCSUACWest Georgia-5.60%1258.00%0%0%
FBSMACBall State-5.70%1234.00%0%0%
FCSMEACSouth Carolina State-6.10%2010.00%100%0%
FBSMACKent State-6.50%1175.00%0%0%
FCSSouthernWofford-6.80%486.00%0%0%
FBSAmericanCharlotte-6.80%1351.00%0%0%
FCSBig SkyEastern Washington-7.40%545.00%0%0%
FBSConference USAUTEP-7.70%1322.00%0%0%
FCSMVFCNorthern Iowa-7.80%773.00%0%0%
FCSPatriotLafayette-7.90%358.00%0%0%
FCSBig SkyCal Poly-7.90%684.00%0%0%
FCSCAAElon-8.00%626.00%0%0%
FCSSouthlandUTRGV-8.00%349.00%0%0%
FCSCAAMaine-8.40%666.00%0%0%
FCSSWACPrairie View A&M-8.70%3710.00%100%100%
FCSSWACJackson State-9.00%239.00%0%100%
FCSMEACNorth Carolina Central-9.00%448.00%0%0%
FCSIvyDartmouth-9.20%257.00%0%0%
FCSBig South-OVCUT Martin-9.30%516.00%0%0%
FCSCAAStony Brook-9.30%586.00%0%0%
FCSSouthlandLamar-9.7100%228.00%0%0%
FBSConference USASam Houston-10.00%1332.00%0%0%
FCSBig South-OVCGardner-Webb-10.10%397.00%0%0%
FCSCAAWilliam & Mary-10.70%457.00%0%0%
FCSIvyPenn-11.00%426.00%0%0%
FCSPatriotRichmond-11.30%497.00%0%0%
FCSSouthernChattanooga-11.30%645.00%0%0%
FCSBig South-OVCLindenwood-11.50%616.00%0%0%
FCSPioneerSt. Thomas-11.70%577.00%0%0%
FCSPatriotHoly Cross-12.10%943.00%0%0%
FCSUACCentral Arkansas-12.20%863.00%0%0%
FCSSouthlandMcNeese-12.50%745.00%0%0%
FCSSouthernFurman-12.70%536.00%0%0%
FCSSouthernThe Citadel-12.80%804.00%0%0%
FCSCAATowson-13.00%656.00%0%0%
FCSPioneerDrake-13.4100%388.00%100%0%
FCSPioneerSan Diego-13.50%438.00%0%0%
FCSPioneerPresbyterian-13.60%3110.00%0%0%
FCSBig South-OVCSoutheast Missouri State-13.70%844.00%0%0%
FCSSouthlandNicholls-13.90%794.00%0%0%
FCSIvyBrown-14.60%505.00%0%0%
FCSBig SkyWeber State-14.80%674.00%0%0%
FCSNECCentral Connecticut State-15.0100%478.00%100%0%
FCSIvyPrinceton-15.10%763.00%0%0%
FCSBig South-OVCCharleston Southern-15.50%725.00%0%0%
FCSBig SkyNorthern Colorado-15.90%824.00%0%0%
FCSPatriotColgate-16.20%785.00%0%0%
FCSNECDuquesne-16.30%597.00%0%0%
FCSUACNorth Alabama-16.50%1022.00%0%0%
FCSIvyCornell-16.80%734.00%0%0%
FCSMVFCIndiana State-16.90%853.00%0%0%
FCSMEACDelaware State-17.00%568.00%0%0%
FCSBig South-OVCWestern Illinois-17.20%874.00%0%0%
FCSFCS IndependentsSacred Heart-18.40%468.00%0%0%
FCSUACUtah Tech-18.40%992.00%0%0%
FCSIvyColumbia-18.60%912.00%0%0%
FCSPioneerDayton-18.80%607.00%0%0%
FCSCAACampbell-18.80%1062.00%0%0%
FCSMVFCMurray State-19.00%1081.00%0%0%
FCSNECLIU-19.10%716.00%0%0%
FCSSouthernSamford-19.70%1111.00%0%0%
FCSBig South-OVCEastern Illinois-19.80%983.00%0%0%
FCSSWACAlcorn State-20.30%955.00%0%0%
FCSMEACMorgan State-20.40%1004.00%0%0%
FCSSWACBethune-Cookman-20.50%756.00%0%0%
FCSCAABryant-20.70%1043.00%0%0%
FBSMACUMass-20.70%1360.00%0%0%
FCSNECMercyhurst-21.20%1255.00%0%0%
FCSFCS IndependentsMerrimack-21.40%1034.00%0%0%
FCSPatriotGeorgetown-22.70%816.00%0%0%
FCSBig SkyPortland State-22.90%1051.00%0%0%
FCSSouthlandEast Texas A&M-23.00%973.00%0%0%
FCSMEACHoward-23.10%935.00%0%0%
FCSSWACTexas Southern-23.20%696.00%0%0%
FCSCAAAlbany-23.40%1092.00%0%0%
FCSPioneerButler-23.80%906.00%0%0%
FCSPioneerMarist-24.00%965.00%0%0%
FCSBig South-OVCTennessee State-24.60%1102.00%0%0%
FCSNECWagner-24.90%885.00%0%0%
FCSSWACGrambling State-24.90%527.00%0%0%
FCSPatriotFordham-26.10%1201.00%0%0%
FCSPatriotBucknell-26.40%895.00%0%0%
FCSNECRobert Morris-27.40%1123.00%0%0%
FCSNECStonehill-27.70%1014.00%0%0%
FCSSWACFlorida A&M-27.90%835.00%0%0%
FCSSouthlandHouston Christian-28.90%1152.00%0%0%
FCSPioneerMorehead State-29.20%926.00%0%0%
FCSCAAHampton-29.20%1162.00%0%0%
FCSSWACAlabama A&M-29.50%1074.00%0%0%
FCSMEACNorfolk State-30.00%1241.00%0%0%
FCSCAANorth Carolina A&T-30.50%1132.00%0%0%
FCSNEC*New Haven-30.50%1255.00%0%0%
FCSSouthernVMI-31.90%1221.00%0%0%
FCSNECSaint Francis (PA)-32.50%1210.00%0%0%
FCSSWACArkansas-Pine Bluff-33.40%1254.00%0%0%
FCSSWACSouthern-35.40%1172.00%0%0%
FCSPioneerDavidson-37.90%1192.00%0%0%
FCSPioneerValparaiso-37.90%1232.00%0%0%
FCSSWACMississippi Valley State-39.70%1252.00%0%0%
FCSSouthlandNorthwestern State-41.90%1181.00%0%0%
FCSPioneerStetson-46.60%1143.00%0%0%

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