College Football Playoff Probabilities

Below you’ll find the latest outputs from our college football bracketology model, which uses our Movelor power-rating system and FPA-based playoff selection model to simulate the remainder of the college football system 10,000 times every day. What are Movelor and FPA? More on that below. Things to know:

  • This model has a strong track record. We’ve been publishing its outputs since 2019, gradually improving it over the years. It’s accurately predicted all but three playoff teams over its six seasons, as measured on Selection Sunday.
  • This is best viewed on a desktop, which also makes it easier to use the table search function. Type “FBS” and sort by your desired variable. Or type “FCS,” if that’s your thing.
  • If viewing on a mobile phone, sometimes tapping your screen twice with two fingers will zoom out your window enough to see the full table.
  • Our model doesn’t always account for every single conference tiebreaker scenario. Here’s what it does account for right now. (Note: The MAC’s new tiebreaker rules are accounted for in that post but not accounted for in these probabilities yet. Apologies. We didn’t catch in time that they’d changed those rules.)


More resources from and about our model:


Last Updated: Wednesday, December 3rd, 12:37 PM EST

SubdivisionConferenceTeamMovelorMake PlayoffAverage Final RankingProjected WinsNational ChampionshipConference TitleConference Championship Appearance*
FBSBig TenOhio State49.6100%114.333%65%100%
FBSBig TenOregon45.1100%512.717%0%0%
FBSBig TenIndiana44.0100%213.516%35%100%
FBSFBS IndependentsNotre Dame43.783%1011.17%0%0%
FBSBig 12Texas Tech42.9100%412.912%76%100%
FBSSECGeorgia38.4100%512.35%51%100%
FBSACCMiami (FL)37.923%1110.71%0%0%
FBSSECAlabama37.859%1011.32%49%100%
FBSSECVanderbilt37.60%1510.70%0%0%
FBSSECMississippi37.0100%612.13%0%0%
FBSSECTexas36.10%139.80%0%0%
FBSBig 12Utah36.00%1410.70%0%0%
FBSSECOklahoma34.2100%910.41%0%0%
FBSBig TenPenn State33.90%436.80%0%0%
FBSSECTexas A&M33.3100%611.81%0%0%
FBSBig 12BYU33.135%1111.90%24%100%
FBSSECMissouri32.20%308.80%0%0%
FBSBig TenIowa32.20%238.80%0%0%
FBSBig TenUSC31.80%179.70%0%0%
FBSBig TenWashington31.00%278.70%0%0%
FBSSECLSU29.80%377.80%0%0%
FBSACCSMU29.10%308.70%0%0%
FBSSECTennessee28.80%328.70%0%0%
FBSBig 12Arizona28.80%189.70%0%0%
FBSBig TenMichigan28.40%199.70%0%0%
FBSACCClemson28.40%497.80%0%0%
FBSSECSouth Carolina28.20%714.00%0%0%
FBSSECAuburn27.80%595.00%0%0%
FBSSun BeltJames Madison27.641%2412.30%91%100%
FBSAmericanUSF27.30%279.60%0%0%
FBSBig TenIllinois25.80%318.60%0%0%
FBSBig 12Arizona State25.30%358.60%0%0%
FCSMVFCNorth Dakota State25.2100%115.151%100%0%
FBSSECFlorida25.20%634.00%0%0%
FBSBig 12TCU25.00%368.60%0%0%
FBSAmericanNorth Texas24.961%2411.90%63%100%
FBSACCVirginia24.756%1710.80%56%100%
FBSACCLouisville24.70%258.60%0%0%
FBSBig 12Iowa State24.50%398.60%0%0%
FBSACCGeorgia Tech24.10%229.60%0%0%
FBSACCPitt23.70%358.60%0%0%
FBSBig 12Kansas State22.90%476.60%0%0%
FBSACCDuke22.64%388.00%44%100%
FBSBig 12Houston21.60%219.50%0%0%
FBSMACToledo21.30%538.50%0%0%
FBSSECArkansas21.30%1032.00%0%0%
FCSBig SkyMontana State21.0100%212.730%100%0%
FBSBig TenWisconsin20.90%674.00%0%0%
FBSBig TenNebraska20.90%517.60%0%0%
FBSBig TenNorthwestern20.70%536.60%0%0%
FBSBig 12Cincinnati20.40%417.60%0%0%
FBSSECKentucky20.20%615.00%0%0%
FBSBig TenRutgers19.60%685.00%0%0%
FBSPac-12Washington State19.40%606.50%0%0%
FBSSECMississippi State19.30%565.00%0%0%
FBSMountain WestBoise State19.30%529.10%60%100%
FBSACCNC State19.20%407.60%0%0%
FBSBig 12Kansas18.80%645.00%0%0%
FBSBig TenMinnesota18.80%557.60%0%0%
FBSAmericanMemphis18.70%648.40%0%0%
FBSACCWake Forest18.70%448.40%0%0%
FBSMountain WestUNLV18.60%4710.70%40%100%
FBSBig TenMichigan State18.50%914.00%0%0%
FBSSun BeltOld Dominion18.30%449.40%0%0%
FBSAmericanTulane17.737%2410.60%37%100%
FBSAmericanEast Carolina17.40%568.40%0%0%
FBSBig 12Baylor17.00%665.00%0%0%
FBSBig 12West Virginia16.90%754.00%0%0%
FBSACCFlorida State16.40%485.00%0%0%
FBSFBS IndependentsUConn14.80%719.30%0%0%
FBSBig 12UCF14.50%775.00%0%0%
FBSMountain WestUtah State14.40%816.40%0%0%
FBSMountain WestSan Diego State14.30%489.30%0%0%
FBSBig TenUCLA13.80%863.00%0%0%
FCSUACTarleton State13.7100%412.56%0%0%
FBSBig 12Colorado13.60%893.00%0%0%
FBSACCCalifornia13.10%637.40%0%0%
FBSACCBoston College13.00%1112.00%0%0%
FBSMountain WestNew Mexico13.00%589.30%0%0%
FBSAmericanNavy12.70%279.80%0%0%
FBSMountain WestFresno State12.70%808.30%0%0%
FBSAmericanUTSA12.60%836.40%0%0%
FBSMACWestern Michigan12.60%718.80%50%100%
FBSMountain WestHawaii12.60%748.30%0%0%
FBSMACMiami (OH)12.60%767.90%50%100%
FBSSun BeltTexas State12.50%856.40%0%0%
FBSAmericanArmy11.70%956.90%0%0%
FBSACCVirginia Tech11.60%943.00%0%0%
FBSACCStanford11.50%804.00%0%0%
FBSMACOhio10.80%828.30%0%0%
FBSBig TenMaryland10.50%934.00%0%0%
FBSSun BeltTroy10.30%768.30%9%100%
FCSBig SkyMontana10.2100%312.24%0%0%
FBSConference USAWestern Kentucky10.00%738.20%0%0%
FBSBig TenPurdue9.30%1132.00%0%0%
FCSMVFCSouth Dakota State9.1100%149.72%0%0%
FBSMountain WestAir Force8.80%1064.00%0%0%
FCSMVFCNorth Dakota8.7100%238.51%0%0%
FBSSun BeltLouisiana8.40%1026.30%0%0%
FBSConference USALouisiana Tech8.10%797.30%0%0%
FBSACCNorth Carolina8.00%964.00%0%0%
FBSConference USAFIU7.10%877.30%0%0%
FCSSouthlandStephen F. Austin6.2100%710.81%100%0%
FBSSun BeltArkansas State6.00%1046.30%0%0%
FBSConference USAJacksonville State5.90%768.80%60%100%
FCSSouthernMercer5.9100%610.01%100%0%
FCSUACAbilene Christian5.5100%109.51%100%0%
FBSConference USAKennesaw State5.40%489.50%40%100%
FCSPatriotLehigh5.4100%512.91%100%0%
FBSBig 12Oklahoma State5.30%1311.00%0%0%
FBSACCSyracuse5.20%1053.00%0%0%
FBSMACCentral Michigan4.80%887.20%0%0%
FBSSun BeltSouthern Miss4.60%927.20%0%0%
FBSSun BeltMarshall4.50%985.00%0%0%
FBSSun BeltGeorgia Southern4.30%976.20%0%0%
FCSBig SkyUC Davis3.5100%88.80%0%0%
FCSCAAVillanova3.2100%1210.51%0%0%
FBSSun BeltSouth Alabama3.10%1184.00%0%0%
FCSMVFCSouth Dakota2.8100%119.50%0%0%
FBSMACEastern Michigan2.50%1214.00%0%0%
FBSConference USAMissouri State2.20%907.00%0%0%
FBSAmericanTemple1.90%995.00%0%0%
FBSAmericanFlorida Atlantic1.90%1084.00%0%0%
FCSMVFCIllinois State1.6100%189.10%0%0%
FBSSun BeltAppalachian State1.50%1155.00%0%0%
FBSMountain WestWyoming1.50%1184.00%0%0%
FCSBig SkySacramento State1.00%317.00%0%0%
FBSConference USALiberty0.90%1074.00%0%0%
FBSMountain WestNevada0.80%1243.00%0%0%
FCSMVFCSouthern Illinois0.70%317.00%0%0%
FBSPac-12Oregon State0.50%1282.00%0%0%
FCSBig SkyIdaho State0.30%406.00%0%0%
FCSIvyYale0.1100%179.10%100%0%
FCSMVFCYoungstown State0.0100%158.00%0%0%
FBSMACBowling Green State0.00%1164.00%0%0%
FBSMountain WestSan Jose State-0.40%1253.00%0%0%
FCSUACSouthern Utah-0.50%287.00%0%0%
FBSConference USADelaware-0.50%1006.00%0%0%
FCSCAARhode Island-0.8100%911.30%100%0%
FBSAmericanTulsa-0.90%1204.00%0%0%
FBSMACBuffalo-0.90%1105.00%0%0%
FBSMACAkron-0.90%1145.00%0%0%
FBSConference USAMiddle Tennessee-1.30%1303.00%0%0%
FCSSouthernWestern Carolina-1.60%387.00%0%0%
FCSUACAustin Peay-1.80%307.00%0%0%
FBSSun BeltCoastal Carolina-2.20%1016.10%0%0%
FBSAmericanRice-2.40%1095.00%0%0%
FCSBig South-OVCTennessee Tech-2.5100%1311.00%100%0%
FCSIvyHarvard-3.0100%179.00%0%0%
FBSAmericanUAB-3.10%1124.00%0%0%
FBSConference USANew Mexico State-3.60%1224.00%0%0%
FBSSun BeltGeorgia State-3.80%1341.00%0%0%
FCSSouthlandSoutheastern Louisiana-3.8100%169.00%0%0%
FCSBig SkyIdaho-3.90%704.00%0%0%
FCSBig SkyNorthern Arizona-4.00%297.00%0%0%
FBSMountain WestColorado State-4.10%1292.00%0%0%
FCSSWACAlabama State-4.20%2410.00%0%0%
FCSCAAMonmouth-4.40%259.00%0%0%
FCSCAANew Hampshire-4.6100%288.00%0%0%
FBSMACNorthern Illinois-4.80%1273.00%0%0%
FBSSun BeltLouisiana Monroe-5.40%1263.00%0%0%
FCSSouthernEast Tennessee State-5.40%377.00%0%0%
FCSUACEastern Kentucky-5.40%515.00%0%0%
FCSSouthlandIncarnate Word-5.40%635.00%0%0%
FCSMEACSouth Carolina State-5.50%229.50%100%0%
FCSUACWest Georgia-5.60%1258.00%0%0%
FBSMACBall State-5.70%1234.00%0%0%
FBSMACKent State-6.50%1185.00%0%0%
FCSSouthernWofford-6.80%496.00%0%0%
FBSAmericanCharlotte-6.80%1351.00%0%0%
FCSSWACJackson State-7.00%2110.00%69%100%
FCSBig SkyEastern Washington-7.40%545.00%0%0%
FBSConference USAUTEP-7.70%1322.00%0%0%
FCSMVFCNorthern Iowa-7.80%783.00%0%0%
FCSPatriotLafayette-7.90%368.00%0%0%
FCSBig SkyCal Poly-7.90%674.00%0%0%
FCSCAAElon-8.00%566.00%0%0%
FCSSouthlandUTRGV-8.00%349.00%0%0%
FCSCAAMaine-8.40%626.00%0%0%
FCSMEACNorth Carolina Central-9.00%448.00%0%0%
FCSIvyDartmouth-9.20%257.00%0%0%
FCSBig South-OVCUT Martin-9.30%546.00%0%0%
FCSCAAStony Brook-9.30%616.00%0%0%
FCSSouthlandLamar-9.7100%268.00%0%0%
FBSConference USASam Houston-10.00%1332.00%0%0%
FCSBig South-OVCGardner-Webb-10.10%427.00%0%0%
FCSCAAWilliam & Mary-10.70%457.00%0%0%
FCSIvyPenn-11.00%406.00%0%0%
FCSSWACPrairie View A&M-11.30%389.40%31%100%
FCSPatriotRichmond-11.30%487.00%0%0%
FCSSouthernChattanooga-11.30%655.00%0%0%
FCSBig South-OVCLindenwood-11.50%586.00%0%0%
FCSPioneerSt. Thomas-11.70%617.00%0%0%
FCSPatriotHoly Cross-12.10%943.00%0%0%
FCSUACCentral Arkansas-12.20%873.00%0%0%
FCSSouthlandMcNeese-12.50%745.00%0%0%
FCSSouthernFurman-12.70%526.00%0%0%
FCSSouthernThe Citadel-12.80%824.00%0%0%
FCSCAATowson-13.00%636.00%0%0%
FCSPioneerDrake-13.4100%378.00%100%0%
FCSPioneerSan Diego-13.50%418.00%0%0%
FCSPioneerPresbyterian-13.60%3210.00%0%0%
FCSBig South-OVCSoutheast Missouri State-13.70%844.00%0%0%
FCSSouthlandNicholls-13.90%804.00%0%0%
FCSIvyBrown-14.60%525.00%0%0%
FCSBig SkyWeber State-14.80%664.00%0%0%
FCSNECCentral Connecticut State-15.0100%488.00%100%0%
FCSIvyPrinceton-15.10%773.00%0%0%
FCSBig South-OVCCharleston Southern-15.50%725.00%0%0%
FCSBig SkyNorthern Colorado-15.90%824.00%0%0%
FCSPatriotColgate-16.20%775.00%0%0%
FCSNECDuquesne-16.30%607.00%0%0%
FCSUACNorth Alabama-16.50%1022.00%0%0%
FCSIvyCornell-16.80%744.00%0%0%
FCSMVFCIndiana State-16.90%843.00%0%0%
FCSMEACDelaware State-17.00%548.00%0%0%
FCSBig South-OVCWestern Illinois-17.20%884.00%0%0%
FCSFCS IndependentsSacred Heart-18.40%468.00%0%0%
FCSUACUtah Tech-18.40%992.00%0%0%
FCSIvyColumbia-18.60%922.00%0%0%
FCSPioneerDayton-18.80%647.00%0%0%
FCSCAACampbell-18.80%1052.00%0%0%
FCSMVFCMurray State-19.00%1081.00%0%0%
FCSNECLIU-19.10%716.00%0%0%
FCSSouthernSamford-19.70%1101.00%0%0%
FCSBig South-OVCEastern Illinois-19.80%993.00%0%0%
FCSSWACAlcorn State-20.30%945.00%0%0%
FCSMEACMorgan State-20.40%1034.00%0%0%
FCSSWACBethune-Cookman-20.50%766.00%0%0%
FCSCAABryant-20.70%1043.00%0%0%
FBSMACUMass-20.70%1360.00%0%0%
FCSNECMercyhurst-21.20%1255.00%0%0%
FCSFCS IndependentsMerrimack-21.40%1004.00%0%0%
FCSPatriotGeorgetown-22.70%776.00%0%0%
FCSBig SkyPortland State-22.90%1071.00%0%0%
FCSSouthlandEast Texas A&M-23.00%963.00%0%0%
FCSMEACHoward-23.10%945.00%0%0%
FCSSWACTexas Southern-23.20%706.00%0%0%
FCSCAAAlbany-23.40%1102.00%0%0%
FCSPioneerButler-23.80%896.00%0%0%
FCSPioneerMarist-24.00%965.00%0%0%
FCSBig South-OVCTennessee State-24.60%1132.00%0%0%
FCSNECWagner-24.90%905.00%0%0%
FCSSWACGrambling State-24.90%547.00%0%0%
FCSPatriotFordham-26.10%1191.00%0%0%
FCSPatriotBucknell-26.40%885.00%0%0%
FCSNECRobert Morris-27.40%1103.00%0%0%
FCSNECStonehill-27.70%1024.00%0%0%
FCSSWACFlorida A&M-27.90%835.00%0%0%
FCSSouthlandHouston Christian-28.90%1142.00%0%0%
FCSPioneerMorehead State-29.20%896.00%0%0%
FCSCAAHampton-29.20%1162.00%0%0%
FCSSWACAlabama A&M-29.50%1044.00%0%0%
FCSMEACNorfolk State-30.00%1241.00%0%0%
FCSCAANorth Carolina A&T-30.50%1132.00%0%0%
FCSNEC*New Haven-30.50%1255.00%0%0%
FCSSouthernVMI-31.90%1221.00%0%0%
FCSNECSaint Francis (PA)-32.50%1230.00%0%0%
FCSSWACArkansas-Pine Bluff-33.40%1254.00%0%0%
FCSSWACSouthern-35.40%1172.00%0%0%
FCSPioneerDavidson-37.90%1202.00%0%0%
FCSPioneerValparaiso-37.90%1202.00%0%0%
FCSSWACMississippi Valley State-39.70%1252.00%0%0%
FCSSouthlandNorthwestern State-41.90%1191.00%0%0%
FCSPioneerStetson-46.60%1143.00%0%0%

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