College Football Playoff Probabilities

Below you can find our college football probabilities and Movelor ratings for all FBS schools. Here’s how it all works. If you’re interested in more Movelor data, including this week’s predictions, that can be found through this menu.

This is best viewed on a computer, but if viewing on an iPhone, sometimes double-tapping with two fingers will expand the screen to fit the full table.

Last Updated: Saturday, December 21st, 8:27 AM EST

TeamMovelor RatingReach QuarterfinalsReach SemifinalsReach ChampionshipNational Champions
Oregon44.4100.0%61.3%48.6%30.3%
Notre Dame42.7100.0%67.8%49.6%25.0%
Ohio State41.782.6%34.5%25.8%15.4%
Penn State37.583.3%72.7%25.8%9.5%
Texas37.684.0%66.7%18.8%8.6%
Georgia38.1100.0%32.2%20.4%8.2%
Tennessee34.417.4%4.2%2.6%1.1%
SMU30.316.7%12.4%2.7%0.7%
Arizona State29.1100.0%23.7%2.6%0.6%
Clemson29.816.0%9.5%1.6%0.3%
Boise State25.5100.0%14.9%1.6%0.2%
TeamMovelor RatingReach ChampionshipNational Champions
South Dakota State25.354.2%39.9%
Montana State20.478.6%27.6%
North Dakota State21.345.8%27.4%
South Dakota14.821.4%5.2%
RankTeamMovelorConferenceAverage Final CFP RankingMake PlayoffNational ChampionshipExpected WinsMake Conference ChampionshipWin Conference
1Oregon44.4Big Ten1100.0%30.3%14.4100.0%100.0%
2Notre Dame44.1FBS Independents5100.0%25.0%13.40.0%0.0%
3Ohio State41.7Big Ten6100.0%15.4%11.60.0%0.0%
4Alabama40.2SEC110.0%0.0%9.80.0%0.0%
5Georgia38.1SEC2100.0%8.2%11.6100.0%100.0%
6Texas37.6SEC3100.0%8.6%12.8100.0%0.0%
7Penn State37.5Big Ten4100.0%9.5%12.9100.0%0.0%
8Mississippi36.5SEC140.0%0.0%9.90.0%0.0%
9Tennessee34.4SEC7100.0%1.1%10.30.0%0.0%
10Florida32.4SECNR0.0%0.0%8.00.0%0.0%
11Michigan31.1Big TenNR0.0%0.0%7.20.0%0.0%
12Indiana31.1Big Ten8100.0%0.0%11.00.0%0.0%
13South Carolina30.8SEC150.0%0.0%9.80.0%0.0%
14SMU30.3ACC10100.0%0.7%11.3100.0%0.0%
15Clemson29.8ACC16100.0%0.3%10.3100.0%100.0%
16Miami (FL)29.4ACC130.0%0.0%10.70.0%0.0%
17LSU29.3SECNR0.0%0.0%8.70.0%0.0%
18Arizona State29.1Big 1212100.0%0.6%11.3100.0%100.0%
19Missouri28.0SEC190.0%0.0%9.60.0%0.0%
20Colorado27.9Big 12230.0%0.0%9.70.0%0.0%
21Louisville27.4ACCNR0.0%0.0%8.70.0%0.0%
22Minnesota27.0Big TenNR0.0%0.0%7.60.0%0.0%
23USC27.0Big TenNR0.0%0.0%6.50.0%0.0%
24Iowa26.2Big TenNR0.0%0.0%8.40.0%0.0%
25Texas A&M25.9SECNR0.0%0.0%8.50.0%0.0%
26Auburn25.9SECNR0.0%0.0%5.00.0%0.0%
27Boise State25.5Mountain West9100.0%0.2%12.2100.0%100.0%
28South Dakota State25.3MVFCFCS100.0%39.7%10.00.0%100.0%
29Oklahoma25.3SECNR0.0%0.0%6.80.0%0.0%
30Baylor25.1Big 12NR0.0%0.0%8.30.0%0.0%
31Kansas State24.9Big 12NR0.0%0.0%8.70.0%0.0%
32Kansas23.8Big 12NR0.0%0.0%5.00.0%0.0%
33Nebraska23.6Big TenNR0.0%0.0%6.70.0%0.0%
34Iowa State23.6Big 12180.0%0.0%10.3100.0%0.0%
35Virginia Tech23.5ACCNR0.0%0.0%6.40.0%0.0%
36Washington23.3Big TenNR0.0%0.0%6.30.0%0.0%
37Texas Tech23.2Big 12NR0.0%0.0%8.50.0%0.0%
38Georgia Tech23.1ACCNR0.00.07.70.0%0.0%
39Illinois22.9Big Ten200.0%0.0%9.20.0%0.0%
40Arkansas22.6SECNR0.00.06.50.0%0.0%
41TCU22.5Big 12NR0.0%0.0%8.80.0%0.0%
42BYU22.4Big 12170.0%0.0%10.30.0%0.0%
43North Dakota State21.7MVFCFCS100.0%28.0%10.00.0%0.0%
44Rutgers21.3Big TenNR0.0%0.0%7.30.0%0.0%
45Duke20.7ACCNR0.0%0.0%9.10.0%0.0%
46Utah20.6Big 12NR0.0%0.0%5.00.0%0.0%
47Montana State20.6Big SkyFCS100.0%27.8%12.00.0%100.0%
48UNLV20.4Mountain West240.0%0.0%11.0100.0%0.0%
49Tulane20.4AmericanNR0.0%0.0%9.0100.0%0.0%
50Memphis19.8American250.0%0.0%11.00.0%0.0%
51Kentucky19.7SECNR0.0%0.0%4.00.0%0.0%
52Boston College19.3ACCNR0.0%0.0%7.30.0%0.0%
53Syracuse18.7ACC210.0%0.0%9.70.0%0.0%
54Vanderbilt18.4SECNR0.0%0.0%6.30.0%0.0%
55Marshall18.4Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%10.0100.0%100.0%
56UCLA18.3Big TenNR0.0%0.0%5.00.0%0.0%
57Wisconsin18.0Big TenNR0.0%0.0%5.00.0%0.0%
58Ohio17.7MACNR0.0%0.0%11.0100.0%100.0%
59West Virginia17.2Big 12NR0.0%0.0%6.00.0%0.0%
60Army16.5American220.0%0.0%11.9100.0%100.0%
61NC State16.3ACCNR0.0%0.0%6.80.0%0.0%
62Navy15.6AmericanNR0.0%0.0%9.20.0%0.0%
63Pitt15.6ACCNR0.0%0.0%7.80.0%0.0%
64UCF15.0Big 12NR0.0%0.0%4.00.0%0.0%
65James Madison14.8Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%9.00.0%0.0%
66South Dakota14.8MVFCFCS100.0%4.5%9.00.0%0.0%
67Virginia14.6ACCNR0.0%0.0%5.00.0%0.0%
68Louisiana13.6Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%10.2100.0%0.0%
69Washington State13.6Pac-12NR0.0%0.0%8.30.0%0.0%
70Jacksonville State13.3Conference USANR0.0%0.0%9.0100.0%100.0%
71North Carolina13.3ACCNR0.0%0.0%6.70.0%0.0%
72Mississippi State13.3SECNR0.0%0.0%2.00.0%0.0%
73California13.3ACCNR0.00.06.00.0%0.0%
74UTSA13.1AmericanNR0.0%0.0%6.70.0%0.0%
75Maryland12.7Big TenNR0.0%0.0%4.00.0%0.0%
76Texas State12.5Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%7.80.0%0.0%
77Cincinnati12.4Big 12NR0.0%0.0%5.00.0%0.0%
78Northwestern12.3Big TenNR0.0%0.0%4.00.0%0.0%
79Fresno State12.0Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%6.80.0%0.0%
80Miami (OH)11.8MACNR0.00.08.6100.0%0.0%
81Arizona11.6Big 12NR0.0%0.0%4.00.0%0.0%
82Houston11.1Big 12NR0.0%0.0%4.00.0%0.0%
83Oklahoma State11.0Big 12NR0.0%0.0%3.00.0%0.0%
84South Alabama10.7Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%7.00.0%0.0%
85Oregon State10.7Pac-12NR0.0%0.0%5.00.0%0.0%
86Bowling Green State10.4MACNR0.0%0.0%7.80.0%0.0%
87Florida State10.0ACCNR0.0%0.0%2.00.0%0.0%
88Old Dominion9.9Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%5.00.0%0.0%
89Wake Forest9.8ACCNR0.0%0.0%4.00.0%0.0%
90Michigan State9.7Big TenNR0.0%0.0%5.00.0%0.0%
91Colorado State9.6Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%8.40.0%0.0%
92Georgia Southern8.6Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%8.00.0%0.0%
93Air Force8.4Mountain WestNR0.00.05.00.0%0.0%
94USF8.4AmericanNR0.0%0.0%6.50.0%0.0%
95Troy8.3Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%4.00.0%0.0%
96UC Davis7.6Big SkyFCS100.0%0.0%10.00.0%0.0%
97East Carolina7.6AmericanNR0.0%0.0%7.20.0%0.0%
98San Jose State7.4Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%7.50.0%0.0%
99Liberty7.3Conference USANR0.0%0.0%8.60.0%0.0%
100Wyoming6.9Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%3.00.0%0.0%
101UConn6.4FBS IndependentsNR0.0%0.0%8.30.0%0.0%
102Appalachian State6.2Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%5.00.0%0.0%
103Utah State6.1Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%4.00.0%0.0%
104Stanford6.0ACCNR0.0%0.0%3.00.0%0.0%
105Sam Houston5.5Conference USANR0.00.010.00.0%0.0%
106Toledo5.4MACNR0.0%0.0%7.20.0%0.0%
107Western Kentucky5.3Conference USANR0.0%0.0%8.0100.0%0.0%
108Buffalo4.3MACNR0.0%0.0%8.40.0%0.0%
109Coastal Carolina4.2Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%6.30.0%0.0%
110Montana4.1Big SkyFCS1.00.08.00.0%0.0%
111Rice3.7AmericanNR0.0%0.0%4.00.0%0.0%
112Louisiana Tech3.6Conference USANR0.0%0.0%5.10.0%0.0%
113Hawaii3.6Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%5.00.0%0.0%
114North Texas3.5AmericanNR0.0%0.0%6.20.0%0.0%
115Northern Illinois3.4MACNR0.0%0.0%7.20.0%0.0%
116New Mexico2.9Mountain WestNR0.00.05.00.0%0.0%
117Idaho2.2Big SkyFCS1.00.09.00.0%0.0%
118Purdue2.1Big TenNR0.0%0.0%1.00.0%0.0%
119Mercer1.9SouthernFCS100.0%0.0%10.00.0%100.0%
120Western Michigan1.8MACNR0.00.06.00.0%0.0%
121Arkansas State1.7Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%7.20.0%0.0%
122Northern Arizona1.6Big SkyFCS100.0%0.0%8.00.0%0.0%
123Missouri State0.8MVFCFCS0.00.08.00.0%0.0%
124Abilene Christian0.3UACFCS100.0%0.0%8.00.0%100.0%
125Nevada-0.2Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%3.00.0%0.0%
126Incarnate Word-0.5SouthlandFCS100.0%0.0%10.00.0%100.0%
127Louisiana Monroe-0.5Sun BeltNR0.00.05.00.0%0.0%
128UAB-1.1AmericanNR0.00.03.00.0%0.0%
129Chattanooga-1.2SouthernFCS0.0%0.0%7.00.0%0.0%
130Akron-1.3MACNR0.0%0.0%4.00.0%0.0%
131Illinois State-1.7MVFCFCS1.00.09.00.0%0.0%
132Tarleton-1.7UACFCS1.00.09.00.0%0.0%
133Delaware-1.8CAAFCS0.00.09.00.0%0.0%
134Western Carolina-1.9SouthernFCS0.00.07.00.0%0.0%
135Jackson State-2.2SWACFCS0.0%0.0%10.0100.0%100.0%
136Central Michigan-2.3MACNR0.0%0.0%4.00.0%0.0%
137Ball State-2.3MACNR0.00.03.00.0%0.0%
138Villanova-2.5CAAFCS1.00.09.00.0%0.0%
139UT Martin-2.6Big South-OVCFCS1.00.08.00.0%0.0%
140Charlotte-2.7AmericanNR0.00.05.00.0%0.0%
141Georgia State-3.0Sun BeltNR0.00.03.00.0%0.0%
142Southern Illinois-3.0MVFCFCS0.00.04.00.0%0.0%
143Richmond-3.1CAAFCS100.0%0.0%10.00.0%100.0%
144San Diego State-3.2Mountain WestNR0.00.03.00.0%0.0%
145Eastern Washington-3.3Big SkyFCS0.00.04.00.0%0.0%
146Harvard-3.3IvyFCS0.0%0.0%8.00.0%100.0%
147New Hampshire-3.4CAAFCS1.00.08.00.0%0.0%
148North Dakota-3.4MVFCFCS0.00.05.00.0%0.0%
149Stephen F. Austin-3.5SouthlandFCS0.0%0.0%7.00.0%0.0%
150FIU-3.8Conference USANR0.00.04.00.0%0.0%
151Eastern Michigan-3.9MACNR0.00.05.00.0%0.0%
152Rhode Island-4.1CAAFCS1.00.010.00.0%0.0%
153North Carolina Central-4.4MEACFCS0.00.08.00.0%0.0%
154Southern Utah-4.5UACFCS0.0%0.0%7.00.0%0.0%
155Yale-4.6IvyFCS0.0%0.0%7.00.0%0.0%
156Towson-5.5CAAFCS0.0%0.0%7.00.0%0.0%
157Monmouth-5.6CAAFCS0.0%0.0%6.00.0%0.0%
158UMass-5.7FBS IndependentsNR0.00.02.00.0%0.0%
159Florida Atlantic-5.7AmericanNR0.00.03.00.0%0.0%
160Weber State-6.1Big SkyFCS0.00.04.00.0%0.0%
161Eastern Kentucky-6.5UACFCS100.0%0.0%8.00.0%0.0%
162Southeastern Louisiana-6.8SouthlandFCS0.0%0.0%7.00.0%0.0%
163South Carolina State-6.9MEACFCS0.00.09.00.0%100.0%
164Portland State-7.2Big SkyFCS0.00.03.00.0%0.0%
165UTEP-7.3Conference USANR0.00.03.00.0%0.0%
166Temple-7.3AmericanNR0.00.03.00.0%0.0%
167Holy Cross-7.5PatriotFCS0.00.06.00.0%0.0%
168Elon-7.5CAAFCS0.0%0.0%6.00.0%0.0%
169East Tennessee State-7.8SouthernFCS0.0%0.0%7.00.0%0.0%
170Dartmouth-7.9IvyFCS0.00.08.00.0%100.0%
171Lehigh-8.2PatriotFCS1.00.08.00.0%100.0%
172New Mexico State-8.3Conference USANR0.00.03.00.0%0.0%
173Sacramento State-8.4Big SkyFCS0.00.03.00.0%0.0%
174Youngstown State-8.4MVFCFCS0.00.04.00.0%0.0%
175Tennessee State-8.4Big South-OVCFCS100.0%0.0%9.00.0%0.0%
176William & Mary-8.5CAAFCS0.00.07.00.0%0.0%
177Lamar-10.1SouthlandFCS0.00.07.00.0%0.0%
178Samford-10.2SouthernFCS0.00.04.00.0%0.0%
179Albany-10.3CAAFCS0.00.04.00.0%0.0%
180Southeast Missouri State-10.4Big South-OVCFCS100.0%0.0%9.00.0%100.0%
181Tennessee Tech-10.4Big South-OVCFCS0.00.07.00.0%0.0%
182Northern Iowa-10.5MVFCFCS0.00.03.00.0%0.0%
183Stony Brook-10.7CAAFCS0.00.08.00.0%0.0%
184Kennesaw State-10.8Conference USANR0.00.02.00.0%0.0%
185Middle Tennessee-11.0Conference USANR0.00.03.00.0%0.0%
186Penn-11.2IvyFCS0.00.04.00.0%0.0%
187Tulsa-11.3AmericanNR0.0%0.0%3.00.0%0.0%
188Central Arkansas-11.5UACFCS0.00.06.00.0%0.0%
189Austin Peay-11.6UACFCS0.00.04.00.0%0.0%
190Furman-11.6SouthernFCS0.00.03.00.0%0.0%
191Southern Miss-11.8Sun BeltNR0.00.01.00.0%0.0%
192Columbia-12.1IvyFCS0.00.07.00.0%100.0%
193McNeese-12.1SouthlandFCS0.00.06.00.0%0.0%
194North Alabama-12.2UACFCS0.00.03.00.0%0.0%
195Maine-13.1CAAFCS0.00.05.00.0%0.0%
196Idaho State-13.2Big SkyFCS0.00.05.00.0%0.0%
197Wofford-13.4SouthernFCS0.00.05.00.0%0.0%
198The Citadel-13.6SouthernFCS0.00.05.00.00.0
199Duquesne-14.5NECFCS0.00.08.00.00.0
200Hampton-14.6CAAFCS0.00.05.00.0%0.0%
201Nicholls-14.7SouthlandFCS0.00.04.00.0%0.0%
202San Diego-14.9PioneerFCS0.00.08.00.00.0
203Butler-15.0PioneerFCS0.00.09.00.00.0
204Indiana State-15.6MVFCFCS0.00.04.00.0%0.0%
205Lindenwood-16.1Big South-OVCFCS0.00.05.00.0%0.0%
206Princeton-16.1IvyFCS0.00.03.00.0%0.0%
207Merrimack-16.4FCS IndependentsFCS0.00.05.00.0%0.0%
208Bucknell-17.2PatriotFCS0.00.06.00.00.0
209Lafayette-17.3PatriotFCS0.00.06.00.00.0
210Cornell-17.3IvyFCS0.00.04.00.00.0
211Central Connecticut State-17.4NECFCS1.00.07.00.0%100.0%
212Cal Poly-17.4Big SkyFCS0.00.03.00.00.0
213Florida A&M-17.5SWACFCS0.0%0.0%6.00.00.0
214Gardner-Webb-17.8Big South-OVCFCS0.00.04.00.00.0
215Campbell-18.2CAAFCS0.00.03.00.00.0
216Drake-18.6PioneerFCS1.00.08.00.01.0
217West Georgia-18.6UACFCS0.00.04.00.00.0
218Alabama State-18.6SWACFCS0.00.06.00.00.0
219Bryant-19.1CAAFCS0.00.02.00.00.0
220Houston Christian-19.2SouthlandFCS0.00.05.00.00.0
221Utah Tech-19.3UACFCS0.00.01.00.00.0
222LIU-19.5NECFCS0.00.04.00.00.0
223Morgan State-20.0MEACFCS0.00.06.00.00.0
224Fordham-20.3PatriotFCS0.00.02.00.00.0
225Robert Morris-20.3NECFCS0.00.07.00.00.0
226Presbyterian-20.6PioneerFCS0.00.06.00.00.0
227Alcorn State-20.7SWACFCS0.00.06.00.00.0
228Kent State-20.7MACNR0.00.00.00.00.0
229Southern-21.7SWACFCS0.00.07.01.00.0
230Charleston Southern-21.9Big South-OVCFCS0.00.01.00.00.0
231Texas A&M-Commerce-22.2SouthlandFCS0.00.03.00.00.0
232Alabama A&M-22.7SWACFCS0.00.06.00.00.0
233Eastern Illinois-22.8Big South-OVCFCS0.00.03.00.00.0
234Saint Francis (PA)-23.0NECFCS0.00.04.00.00.0
235VMI-23.1SouthernFCS0.00.01.00.00.0
236St. Thomas-23.5PioneerFCS0.00.06.00.00.0
237Western Illinois-23.8Big South-OVCFCS0.00.04.00.00.0
238Davidson-24.0PioneerFCS0.00.06.00.00.0
239Prairie View A&M-24.2SWACFCS0.00.05.00.00.0
240Murray State-24.3MVFCFCS0.00.01.00.00.0
241Colgate-25.0PatriotFCS0.00.02.00.00.0
242Brown-25.3IvyFCS0.00.03.00.00.0
243Norfolk State-25.6MEACFCS0.00.04.00.00.0
244Sacred Heart-25.9FCS IndependentsFCS0.00.05.00.00.0
245North Carolina A&T-26.5CAAFCS0.00.01.00.00.0
246Bethune-Cookman-26.9SWACFCS0.00.02.00.00.0
247Grambling State-27.2SWACFCS0.00.05.00.00.0
248Morehead State-27.5PioneerFCS0.00.07.00.00.0
249Howard-27.7MEACFCS0.00.04.00.00.0
250Texas Southern-27.7SWACFCS0.00.05.00.00.0
251Dayton-27.8PioneerFCS0.00.06.00.00.0
252Mercyhurst-28.0NECFCS0.00.04.00.00.0
253Northern Colorado-28.6Big SkyFCS0.00.01.00.00.0
254Georgetown-29.2PatriotFCS0.00.05.00.00.0
255Wagner-29.8NECFCS0.00.04.00.00.0
256Valparaiso-32.3PioneerFCS0.00.04.00.00.0
257Stonehill-35.4NECFCS0.00.01.00.00.0
258Arkansas-Pine Bluff-39.0SWACFCS0.00.03.00.00.0
259Delaware State-39.0MEACFCS0.00.01.00.00.0
260Mississippi Valley State-40.1SWACFCS0.00.01.00.00.0
261Marist-40.5PioneerFCS0.00.01.00.00.0
262Northwestern State-44.6SouthlandFCS0.00.00.00.00.0
263Stetson-46.0PioneerFCS0.00.02.00.00.0

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