We’ve got a full-on line shift this week. Six new teams in. Six old teams out. And finally, a clear SEC favorite.
Where the CFP picture’s pointed, per our model’s latest simulations:
Moving In: Indiana, LSU, Utah, Alabama, Illinois, Memphis
There are two ways teams change their positions in these projections (and a reminder: our bracketology is basically every team’s average finish across 10,000 simulations, lined up in order). The first is to change their current résumé, putting an unexpected good win or bad loss into the bank. The second is to change their expected future résumé, playing so well or so poorly that it changes our model’s perception of how their season will unfold.
Indiana falls into the latter category. The Hoosiers dismantled Indiana State by 73 points, and yes it was Indiana State and yes Curt Cignetti is a point differential merchant, but that’s a lot of points. Our model thinks the Hoosiers are going to be pretty good from here on out. Good enough that their average final CFP ranking is sixth-best in our model’s simulations.
LSU falls into the former category. It’s not that they weren’t expected to beat Florida, but they weren’t expected to win all these games against good competition. That’s a big one, and they won it a little more decisively than expected.
Utah’s more about future résumé than realized results, but with a twist: Iowa State’s limp to the finish line in Jonesboro made the Utes the new Big 12 favorite, with a corresponding increase in the probability Utah will play in the Big 12 Championship. Given the likelihood conference championships are a free play, that means a potentially risk-free opportunity at a good win. Utah’s schedule, then, probably got a little bit better.
Alabama played well against Wisconsin. We know what they are, which is to say that we don’t know what they’ll be in a given week. Importantly, our model is still very low on Florida State. And it still has the Tide in this field.
Illinois kept taking care of business while others around them didn’t.
Memphis remains the AAC favorite, but now by enough to be the likeliest mid-major playoff representative.
Moving Out: Notre Dame, Texas, Tennessee, USC, Iowa State, Ohio
No surprise here from Notre Dame or Ohio. One is now 0–2, the other is 1–2 and was already a weird inclusion, only in last week’s bracket because the AAC favorite wasn’t expected to have the AAC’s best résumé.
Texas is a big surprise, but that’s how bad the Longhorn offense looks, and the schedule is not kind. They’re very much in the mix, but our model does not currently expect Texas to make this year’s College Football Playoff. One-in-three chance, it says.
Tennessee feels unfair, but that was a slight underperformance relative to our model’s expectations. Maybe Georgia keeps getting better and Tennessee rises back (I personally think this is pretty likely), but for now, no Vols.
USC was an unconventional inclusion last week as well, and while there are holes to poke in the argument that they underwhelmed against Purdue (there was a long rain delay and they were playing Purdue), we don’t expect to hear any complaints over USC falling out.
Iowa State, as mentioned, had a rough day against Arkansas State. They survived. They’re 4–0. But they aren’t the Big 12 favorite anymore, and Movelor—our model’s power rating system—doesn’t think they’re one of the country’s 25 best teams.
Moving Up: Georgia, Miami, Mississippi
Georgia and Miami both move into bye position with impressive wins. Mississippi jumps from a road team to a home team in the first round.
Moving Down: Penn State
The Nittany Lions are out of a projected bye spot. This was probably going to happen to the Big Ten’s third team eventually, but the SEC needed to stratify a little before someone’s average season could be better than Penn State’s.
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Next, we’ve got playoff probabilities and average final rankings, with the full list always available here:
We can’t stress enough how wide-open the playoff field is. Only two teams are anywhere close to locks. Only two more should feel like they’re on track for a berth. Even Notre Dame is still very much in the picture. We have twelve separate teams whose average final CFP ranking lands between 18th and 24th. It is wide, wide open out here.
Lastly, how good everybody is:
Ohio State mostly caught up to Oregon. Georgia and Alabama are back to where one might have had them preseason. Texas isn’t that far down, and Indiana isn’t that far up, but there are differences in those schedules. Indiana’s got a really good path to 10–2, and Texas has a few scenarios that could leave them 8–4. Also, it is not helpful to be closer to Nebraska than to Oregon.
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