College Football Playoff Bracketology: Week 2, 2024

This bracketology is our college football model’s current best prediction of where the College Football Playoff field will ultimately land. It is not a reflection of where things currently stand. Here’s a link to an explanation of how it all works. Here’s another link to our model’s homepage, through which you can access CFP probabilities, national championship probabilities, single-game spreads, and more.

The changes from Week 1:

• Kansas State jumps Clemson for the 3-seed, being the conference favorite with the third-best average final ranking. K-State’s average final ranking is 22^nd. Clemson’s is 25^th.
• Alabama jumps Notre Dame and Ohio State for the 5-seed, with a better average final ranking than the two Midwestern schools. Notre Dame is still likelier to make the playoff than Alabama, but Alabama’s average finish is better than Notre Dame’s. Alabama’s tougher schedule and shot at a conference title creates stronger upside and poorer downside. Of course, if Alabama wins the SEC, they’ll most likely be the 1-seed or the 2-seed, but we line things up in order to illustrate that their overall outlook is better than that of the Irish.
• Texas and Penn State jump Oregon, which is mostly a reflection of Oregon’s underwhelming performance against Idaho increasing Movelor’s doubts about their quality. Movelor is our model’s rating system.
• Mississippi jumps Missouri, with Movelor impressed by the Mississippi performance against Furman, whom Movelor has ranked 8^th in the FCS, better than 30 FBS teams.
• James Madison slides back in ahead of UTSA as the Group of Five conference favorite with the best playoff probability. Movelor views the Dukes as the best Group of Five team after their thumping of Charlotte and Troy’s upset loss to Nevada. UTSA’s underwhelming showing against Kennesaw State has them out of the AAC favorite seat, with Tulane taking the narrow edge in what we currently view as a three-team race. (Memphis is the third team.)

This is every team’s average finish lined up in order, accounting for conference championship tie-ins by treating every conference favorite as their conference’s champ. That’s how we do it. This is what our model says (graphics still aren’t here, as we continue to lose our wrestling match with time):

Orange Bowl Side

First Round: 9-seed Penn State at 8-seed Texas
First Round: 12-seed James Madison at 5-seed Alabama

Sugar Bowl: 1-seed Georgia vs. Texas/PSU winner
Fiesta Bowl: 4-seed Clemson vs. Alabama/JMU winner

Cotton Bowl Side

First Round: 10-seed Oregon at 7-seed Ohio State
First Round: 11-seed Mississippi at 6-seed Notre Dame

Rose Bowl: 2-seed Michigan vs. OSU/Oregon winner
Peach Bowl: 3-seed Kansas State vs. ND/Miss winner

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If favorites won every game, we’d see Georgia win a rematch with Texas in the Sugar Bowl, Alabama beat Clemson in the Fiesta Bowl, Michigan win a rematch with Ohio State in the Rose Bowl, and Notre Dame beat Kansas State in the Peach Bowl. In the semifinal round, Georgia would win what would probably be a rematch against Alabama in the Orange Bowl while Michigan would beat rival Notre Dame in the Cotton Bowl. In the national championship, Georgia would be favored over Michigan.

Would the committee wiggle things around to avoid an all-Big Ten corner of the bracket? Maybe. Maybe they’d slip Texas ahead of Ohio State with a wink and a nod. Do that, though, and there’s a conference rematch in the first round. Most likely, some of these Big Ten and SEC teams will knock each other out of here rather than all finish with ten or eleven wins, which is the average off of which our model builds its bracket.

Would the committee put Kansas State in the Fiesta Bowl, since Clemson is so much closer geographically to the Peach Bowl? I don’t think they’re supposed to do that. Manhattan, Kansas is a little bit closer to Atlanta than it is to Phoenix. I think that’s supposed to be the only thing that matters for where the 3-seed goes if its historic conference bowl partner (the Big 12’s is the Sugar Bowl) is unavailable (the SEC’s is also the Sugar Bowl).

Movelor—that rating system our model uses—is still figuring out how good the top eight teams are, with a clear cutoff between Notre Dame (whom Movelor ranks 8^th) and Mississippi (whom Movelor ranks 9^th). At the moment, it has Georgia ahead of the rest, and then Alabama, Michigan, Texas, Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State, and Notre Dame all within 5.5 points of one another. As such, the average final CFP ranking for each of those eight teams is between 5^th and 11^th.

Movelor and the rest of us will learn a lot on Saturday when Texas goes to Ann Arbor. Other games to watch in Week 2, from the bracket’s perspective:

• Tulane hosts Kansas State in a game with big Group of Five and Big 12 implications. K-State can’t take a conference loss in the matchup, but it would likely relinquish conference favorite status with a loss. With a win, Tulane would have a chance to jump JMU as the effective Group of Five favorite.
• Elsewhere in the Big 12, contenders Oklahoma State and Utah each have a chance to prove themselves, respectively hosting Arkansas and Baylor. The Baylor/Utah matchup is a non-conference game for standings purposes.
• Oregon looks to bounce back from what was technically a win over Idaho, hosting Boise State as a large favorite. For the Broncos, it’s a chance to reward some of the preseason Boise hype in Group of Five prognostications. App State gets a similar opportunity at Clemson. If the Mountaineers spring the upset (possible, not likely) expect us to write next week about how technically, the ACC isn’t guaranteed a playoff berth. Miami, for those wondering, hosts Florida A&M. Movelor has the spread at 39.
• Tennessee is among those in contention for that 11-seed as things are currently forecast to end up. They go to Raleigh to face an NC State team who underwhelmed in their opener but remains an ACC contender. Our model has eight teams with better than a 1-in-10 chance to reach the ACC Championship. Florida State is not one of them.

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Here’s how the model’s projections have changed week-by-week: