This bracketology is our College Football Model’s current best prediction of where the College Football Playoff field will ultimately land. It is not a reflection of where things currently stand. Here’s a link to an explanation of how it all works. Here’s another link to our model’s homepage, through which you can access CFP probabilities, national championship probabilities, single-game spreads, and more.
We’ll have graphics for these in future weeks, but hopefully this gets the information across. The changes from Week Zero are:
- Clemson is now the ACC favorite, replacing Florida State.
- UTSA now has a narrowly larger playoff probability than James Madison, making it our fifth automatic bid. This is mostly statistical noise. The two are very, very close in our average simulation, and there are a lot more Group of Five teams right around them.
- Alabama and Oregon flipped spots, again because of statistical noise while the two are very, very close. To be honest, this probably reflects a subconscious move the committee would make: It takes away an all-Big Ten and all-SEC first round game.
The latest:
Orange Bowl Side
First Round: 9-seed Texas at 8-seed Oregon
First Round: 12-seed UTSA at 5-seed Notre Dame
Sugar Bowl: 1-seed Georgia vs. Oregon/Texas winner
Fiesta Bowl: 4-seed Kansas State vs. ND/UTSA winner
Cotton Bowl Side
First Round: 10-seed Penn State at 7-seed Alabama
First Round: 11-seed Missouri at 6-seed Ohio State
Rose Bowl: 2-seed Michigan vs. Alabama/PSU winner
Peach Bowl: 3-seed Clemson vs. OSU/Missouri winner
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How it’s changed each week:
| Seed | Week 0 | Week 1 |
| 1 | Georgia | Georgia |
| 2 | Michigan | Michigan |
| 3 | Florida State | Clemson |
| 4 | Kansas State | Kansas State |
| 5 | Notre Dame | Notre Dame |
| 6 | Ohio State | Ohio State |
| 7 | Oregon | Alabama |
| 8 | Alabama | Oregon |
| 9 | Texas | Texas |
| 10 | Penn State | Penn State |
| 11 | Missouri | Missouri |
| 12 | James Madison | UTSA |
