This bracketology is our college football model’s current best prediction of where the College Football Playoff field will ultimately land. It is not a reflection of where things currently stand. Here’s a link to an explanation of how it all works. Here’s another link to our model’s homepage, through which you can access CFP probabilities, national championship probabilities, single-game spreads, and more.
Last Updated: Sunday, September 15th, 10:10 AM EDT
For commentary, view our weekly bracketology post.
Cotton Bowl Side
First Round: 9-seed Tennessee at 8-seed Mississippi
First Round: 12-seed Memphis at 5-seed Alabama
Sugar Bowl: 1-seed Texas vs. Miss/Tenn winner
Fiesta Bowl: 4-seed Clemson vs. Alabama/Memphis winner
Orange Bowl Side
First Round: 10-seed Notre Dame at 7-seed Oregon
First Round: 11-seed Penn State at 6-seed Georgia
Rose Bowl: 2-seed Ohio State vs. Oregon/ND winner
Peach Bowl: 3-seed Kansas State vs. UGA/PSU winner
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Here’s how the model’s picture has changed as the season’s gone on.
| Seed | Week 0 | Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 |
| 1 | Georgia | Georgia | Georgia | Texas | Texas |
| 2 | Michigan | Michigan | Michigan | Ohio State | Ohio State |
| 3 | Florida State | Clemson | Kansas State | Clemson | Kansas State |
| 4 | Kansas State | Kansas State | Clemson | Kansas State | Clemson |
| 5 | Notre Dame | Notre Dame | Alabama | Georgia | Alabama |
| 6 | Ohio State | Ohio State | Notre Dame | Alabama | Georgia |
| 7 | Oregon | Alabama | Ohio State | Michigan | Oregon |
| 8 | Alabama | Oregon | Texas | Penn State | Mississippi |
| 9 | Texas | Texas | Penn State | Mississippi | Tennessee |
| 10 | Penn State | Penn State | Oregon | Tennessee | Notre Dame |
| 11 | Missouri | Missouri | Mississippi | Oregon | Penn State |
| 12 | James Madison | UTSA | James Madison | Liberty | Memphis |