College Football Playoff Bracketology

Below you’ll find the latest outputs from our college football bracketology model, which uses our Movelor power-rating system and FPA-based playoff selection model to simulate the remainder of the college football system 10,000 times every week. What are Movelor and FPA? More on that below. Things to know:

• To build this, we line up every team in order by their average final CFP ranking across our model’s simulations. We take the five conference favorites with the best average ranking and the seven at-large teams with the best average ranking.
• This is not the single likeliest CFP bracket. It is, per our model, how each team’s average scenario compares with every other team’s average scenario.
• This model has a strong track record. We’ve been publishing its outputs since 2019, gradually improving it over the years. It’s accurately predicted all but three playoff teams over its six seasons, as measured on Selection Sunday.
• Every week, Joe Stunardi publishes a post explaining that week’s bracketology. Those can always be found at our homepage.

More resources from and about our model:

• College football probabilities (make playoff, win conference, etc.)
• Movelor game predictions
• FCS Bracketology
• How our model works
• 2025–26 archives (coming soon)

Last Updated: Wednesday, December 3rd, 12:37 PM EST

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