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Back in August, we explained how there are five kinds of Heisman Trophy winners, ranging from transcendent quarterbacks (Joe Burrow, Robert Griffin III, etc.) to great players on title contenders (Derrick Henry, Mark Ingram). The race for the trophy is something of a checklist: Is there a transcendent quarterback? No? Then down to transcendent players at other positions we go.
Early in the year, it doesn’t look like we have that transcendent QB, and the two potentially transcendent players at other positions are each accompanied by uncertainty, specifically whether they can stay healthy and how much attention their teams will bring. It’s an open race, and it will likely remain that way for a long time. For the sake of an update, though, let’s go through the current odds and check in on some prominent characters.
The Leader: Jalen Milroe
Jalen Milroe’s the leader in the Heisman odds right now, and there are four factors contributing to that. One is that he just beat Georgia in the most-watched game of the season. One is that he’s now the quarterback of the national championship co-favorite. One is that he’s playing under Kalen DeBoer, a renowned quarterback coach. One is that he’s played good football so far this year, for the most part.
The thing about those factors is that two of them are forward-looking and a third is one of those classic Heisman race reactions to a recent result. The forward-looking part can be smart, and maybe the market’s really onto something. I’m pretty confident, though, that Milroe’s not a transcendent quarterback. Maybe he’s a great one, but we saw so many limitations from him last year that it’s hard to believe he won’t at some point crack.
The People’s Favorite: Travis Hunter
Nobody, not even Alabama people (I don’t think), is going around the media screaming, JALEN MILROE SHOULD WIN THE HEISMAN. Travis Hunter is getting those screams.
Hunter is a unicorn. He plays two ways and plays both well. The things we were afraid would hold him back (namely, Colorado stinking) haven’t gone too badly so far. We’re still worried about injury—he needs to keep holding people’s focus, and to do that he needs to stay on the field—but if Hunter stays healthy and there isn’t some major Colorado blowup? Hunter is doing ten times more on offense than Charles Woodson did. He also might be the best defensive back in the country.
Barring injury, a quarterback breakthrough, or some very Deion Sanders nonsense in Boulder, Travis Hunter is winning this thing. Why it’ll remain an open race until the end is that one wrong step is likelier for a defensive back/wide receiver than it is for a QB.
The Earlier Favorite: Cam Ward
Cam Ward flashed big numbers out of the gate, and he’ll continue to flash big numbers, and who knows, maybe Miami will run the table and enter the playoff 13–0. It’s hard to see his style satisfying Heisman voters, though, unless this turns into a Heisman by default. The guy turned the ball over three times against Virginia Tech. That’s part of his game, and part of what makes him so fun, but Miami will face a lot of defenses on par with Virginia Tech’s, and if Miami’s as good as they’ll need to be for Ward to win it, we’ll watch a lot of those tightrope performances.
The Running Back: Ashton Jeanty
I was skeptical of Ashton Jeanty, because there’s a big movement in the blogosphere (and the AP Poll) where people use praise for Boise State as some weird sort of signal that they’re following the Group of Five, often inflating Boise State’s hype in the process. But while Boise State’s reputation might outpace its product, I no longer think Jeanty fits that description. He is so fast and so strong.
Speaking more practically, Boise State’s schedule is conducive to a big Heisman run. The Broncos play mediocre teams the next two weeks, then get a big Friday night game against UNLV on what should be a quieter weekend nationally. From there, they get two more weak opponents, a potential big game against San Jose State, another weak team, and then Oregon State in their regular season finale. After that, there’s likely the Mountain West Championship, where Boise State might be playing for a playoff berth.
Overall? That gives us two great big prominent games, with the last one potentially coming on a weekend when a quarterback or two goes up in smoke, like how Washington won Jayden Daniels the Heisman last year by beating Bo Nix and Oregon. Besides those two prominent games, there’s enough meat on the bone to give Jeanty some tests, and enough paper to run through that his numbers should be gigantic.
If Boise State doesn’t stumble, Jeanty has a strong case unless Oregon or Tennessee is a real title contender. Through a little more than a month, that’s the outlook.
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Great (or Maybe Great) Quarterbacks on Contending Teams: Nico Iamaleava, Dillon Gabriel, Quinn Ewers, Carson Beck
Why do I mention Oregon and Tennessee? Because Dillon Gabriel and Nico Iamaleava are the two quarterbacks with the best path right now to a breakthrough. Each could end up with seismic numbers themselves and a lot of high-profile performances. The third kind of Heisman winner—the kind of player who wins it if there isn’t a transcendent player at any position—is a great, national title-contending QB.
Gabriel was the preseason favorite. His buzz has quieted, but he’s on pace for 3,874 yards, 29 touchdowns, and only three interceptions. Boost those yards and touchdowns a little bit and Gabriel might be the guy. For those who follow our bets, we’re watching for a big night on Friday against Michigan State and then hoping to get him at a good price on Tuesday. (We missed him this week and are kicking ourselves for it.) If Oregon can split with Ohio State, Gabriel’s probably the likeliest quarterback to pull this off.
Iamaleava is not the crisp quarterback Gabriel is at his best, but when he’s on, he’s very physically impressive. He hasn’t done anything to play himself out of the race so far, and as a redshirt freshman, he’s liable for some improvement as the year goes on. Most likely, he combusts at some point, his polish not standing up in the heat of the SEC grind. But there’s a chance.
Quinn Ewers and Carson Beck have each suffered a major setback, but if Ewers torches Oklahoma and Georgia? If Beck torches Texas and gets Georgia back to the front of the national title race? Again, we’re two sprained ankles away from this thing being wide, wide open. Milroe has the edge because his team has the edge, but the Texas/Georgia game is coming.
More Quarterbacks: Jaxson Dart, Cade Klubnik, Miller Moss, Shedeur Sanders, Drew Allar, Garrett Nussmeier
Drew Allar has the Walmart version of Gabriel and Iamaleava’s path, which means we don’t believe in his team as much as we believe in theirs.
We talked preseason about how Shedeur Sanders could be transcendent, but we haven’t seen that level of play so far, and his dedication to his father’s me-first ethos hasn’t earned him much sympathy. The Heisman is highly subjective.
Jaxson Dart might put up the best numbers in the country, but Mississippi is an easy team to not take seriously. People pounced after the Kentucky loss.
Lincoln Riley’s quarterbacks win the Heisman half the time, but Miller Moss is looking a year away, with USC’s schedule still daunting and Moss not quite the stone-cold killer he needs to be to save them in the biggest moments.
Garrett Nussmeier can throw the football, but with LSU always in the middle of an existential crisis, he has to force things. He’s a very different QB from Cam Ward, but he’s got Cam Ward’s Heisman profile, and he doesn’t enjoy the sympathy or the schedule the Miami QB receives.
We don’t like any of these guys’ chances, but they’re close enough to the mix to mention.
Someone From Ohio State: Will Howard, Jeremiah Smith
Ohio State is a weird case because no one really respects Will Howard and their potential best offensive player, Jeremiah Smith, is only a freshman. We’ll label Smith a year away from contention. Howard might put up the numbers necessary, but perceptions don’t help the guy, and while he’s not what you think of when you think “game manager,” he’s definitely facilitating the Ohio State offense more than he’s asked to make huge plays himself.
Arch Manning: Arch Manning
I almost didn’t include this, because it’s so easy to overplay, but upon reflection…
Quinn Ewers has an oblique injury. Those are sticky and they hurt. Ewers is a great quarterback and a smart quarterback, but his eyes are very clearly on his NFL career. The chance of a setback isn’t small. Texas might be the best team in the country, and it’s easy to see Manning Mania taking off if Arch has to beat both Oklahoma and Georgia and does it. I don’t think it’s going to happen, but it’s far too easy a path to visualize for us to ignore it.
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If you missed it last night, our Week 6 Preview is up. It’s a weird week, but it’s a good one. Bark.
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