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Since joining Division I together in 2004, North Dakota State and South Dakota State have won eleven of the FCS’s twenty national championships. They’re a combined 408–127 as Division I teams. They only have three combined losing seasons. They’ve won all eleven of those titles in the last fourteen years, running into one another in postseason play five times during that stretch, including in the 2022 season’s national championship. SDSU’s a later entrant to the FCS pantheon, allowing NDSU to claim all nine of its own titles before the Jacks could get one, but these are, by any measurement, the two best FCS programs right now, and arguably the two most annually successful in all of college football at the present moment in time.
The Bison and the Jackrabbits were not originally archrivals. For each school, that distinction belonged more to their in-state competition, and at times and in other sports, it still does. When the Dakota schools made the Division I jump, though, NDSU and SDSU jumped first, and since making that leap, their football success has dramatically outpaced that of the Universities of North Dakota and South Dakota. NDSU and SDSU are juggernauts. Movelor, our model’s rating system, ranked 2018 North Dakota State the sixth-best team in the entire country, FBS included, at the end of that season. It has South Dakota State 26th in the country heading into tomorrow, even in what’s probably a down year for the Jacks.
Because of the newness of that archrival status, the Dakota Marker itself—the trophy accompanying this game, a replica of the quartzite pillars set along the North Dakota/South Dakota state line in 1892—has only been contested twenty times, once for every regular season Division I meeting. Despite NDSU’s huge edge in national championships, SDSU’s managed to win the trophy just as often as the Bison, including each of the last four years. North Dakota State is a bigger deal historically, but South Dakota State’s a bigger deal right now, and even when NDSU enjoyed advantages, the Jacks knew how to keep things interesting.
What’s the deal with this year’s teams? They’re most likely the two best in the FCS, perhaps by as much of a touchdown over Montana State, South Dakota, and the others next in line.
First-year Bison coach Tim Polasek had a rocky start, losing to Travis Hunter and Colorado and then only narrowly escaping East Tennessee State, but he and his brand-new staff have put the pride back into the program, most notably with a 24-point bullying of North Dakota two weeks ago at the Fargodome. Longtime NDSU quarterback Cam Miller is playing the best football of his career at the right time. The defense has allowed fewer than eight points per game in conference play. Offensive tackle Grey Zabel, who (believably) claims to have received NIL offers in the high six figures from power conference programs, is expected to be drafted in the spring. He’d be the fourth NDSU tackle selected in the last five years. Bryce Lance, Trey Lance’s little brother, is the team’s leading receiver. This might be the best NDSU team we’ve seen since 2019, and the 2021 team won the national championship.
South Dakota State, meanwhile, hasn’t lost to an FCS opponent since the end of that 2021 year, a 32-game win streak within the subdivision which has now spanned multiple coaching administrations, since longtime head coach John Stiegelmeier retired following the 2022 title game. The ship now belongs to Jimmy Rogers, who played for the program in the late 2000’s and rose to become its defensive coordinator late in the 2010’s. Rogers lost offensive coordinator Zach Lujan to Northwestern this year (where NDSU product David Braun is the head man), and the Jacks struggled out of the gate, getting whacked by Oklahoma State and then managing just 24 points against Division II Augustana a couple weeks later. SDSU hasn’t been tested much in the last month, but they’ve been pulverizing lesser foes, winning over Northern Iowa and Youngstown State—two generally respectable MVFC programs—by an average score of 52–8. Fringe NFL prospect Mark Gronowski (who claims to have received even more aggressive NIL offers than Zabel) is back at quarterback for his fourth season, leading a slightly neutered passing attack (the Janke twins are onto NFL practice squads now) complimented by a familiar run game, one paced by the small and the shifty plus change-of-pace quarterback Chase Mason, the presumed starter under center next year.
Overall, what you’re looking at tomorrow is a matchup not unlike Georgia vs. Alabama. South Dakota State is the more recent riser, the talented, powerful, well-resourced program trying to extend its glory era but accompanied by suspicions that they’ve lost their fastball. North Dakota State is the power of the 2010’s, depleted from their heyday but still a force and still very much iconic. In terms of football quality, it’s not a dissimilar matchup from something like Iowa vs. Colorado. It’ll look slower, and it’ll be slower—the best FCS teams’ execution is exquisite, especially in the trenches, but that’s covering for major athletic deficiencies—but the final product is much better than most college football fans realize.
Movelor has the Jackrabbits favored by 2.7 points on the road. SP+ has the Jacks by 0.9. Most betting markets haven’t opened yet (FCS markets open very, very late), but from what we can tell, they also have SDSU by 2.5 or so. I’m personally suspicious. I like what Polasek is doing, and SDSU hasn’t impressed as much as a usual FCS power. But there isn’t an FCS team right now as good as last year’s SDSU or 2018’s NDSU. The ceiling’s lower than it was. And it’s still setting up to be a great football game. That’s how good the Dakota Marker rivalry has become.
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For more on the rest of the weekend ahead…
- Our Week 8 Preview.
- Our latest College Football Playoff Bracketology.
- Our model’s playoff probabilities.
- Movelor’s Week 8 spreads.
Bark.
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