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On the one hand, we might already know very well how the College Football Playoff committee will rank Group of Five teams. We’ve seen them construct their top 25 for a decade now. We have data on how they compare different mid-major conferences and different mid-major achievements. We saw them give a four-team playoff spot to an undefeated AAC champion with a top-ten win. We saw them hold off on ranking an undefeated Conference USA team until it was nearly unavoidable. We know how they do this.
On the other hand, this is the first twelve-team playoff. This is the first time at least one Group of Five champion is guaranteed a playoff spot. We don’t really know how it’s going to work.
I bring this up because all season, you’re going to hear about mid-major football games with playoff stakes. That’s especially true this weekend, with Texas State and UNLV getting ESPN’s primetime treatment tonight and tomorrow. Does Texas State have a playoff shot? Yes, but. If you’re watching at home, you’re going to be treated to a dramatization. Whatever the Bobcats’ playoff chances and however much they hinge on tonight’s game against Arizona State, both those things will be overrepresented on the broadcast. Not by the percentages on graphics coming out of timeouts (while we have our qualms about ESPN’s playoff predictors, those numbers are their real numbers), but by the broadcasters themselves. Football is theater. The broadcasters’ job is to make this struggle seem as consequential as it possibly can seem.
But does Texas State really have a playoff shot?
Yes. Yes they do. Our model is based on the limited precedent we have, but its best bet has Texas State 2.9% likely to make the playoff field, a roughly 1-in-35 probability. Win tonight, and our model estimates that number will rise to 5.2%, slightly better than 1-in-20. There’s reason to believe our model is too low on the Bobcats, too. ESPN’s SP+ and FPI (we have no qualms about SP+ or FPI) both rank Texas State roughly ten spots better in the FBS landscape than Movelor, our model’s rating system. If the truth is even somewhere in the middle, those probabilities should be higher.
Still, Texas State is a playoff longshot. Tonight is exciting and hopeful, simultaneously a milestone and a test of how high and how quickly this program can rise. For years, people have wondered how a large state school in Central Texas struggled to win at football. We still lack those answers, but with the arrival of GJ Kinne before last season, the question’s being rendered moot.
Who in the Group of Five isn’t a playoff longshot? We’re going to bring you three categories here. The first is the favorites—teams with better than a 1-in-10 playoff chance, per our model. The second is teams in the picture—teams with better than a 1-in-20 playoff chance. The third is teams trying to get in the picture—teams with better than a 1-in-100 playoff chance.
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The Favorites: Liberty, Memphis, James Madison, Boise State
If you want a safe answer right now for a mid-major playoff team, say Memphis. FPI doesn’t like them, but around the blogosphere, there’s the least disagreement about Memphis. That might change on Saturday—the Tigers meet up with old coach Mike Norvell as they take on Florida State—but that game is unlikely to be a playoff eliminator. Even in simulations where Memphis loses, our model has them making the playoff 14% of the time.
Liberty’s case rests more on its schedule. On the one hand, it’s very easy, affording no margin for error. On the other, it’s very easy, which makes it fairly likely that the Flames go undefeated. Among FBS teams, our model expects only Texas, Ohio State, Penn State, Alabama, Mississippi, and Georgia to win more regular season games. Last year, Liberty got the Group of Five’s New Year’s Six bid by default. They could definitely make a playoff the same way.
Boise State already has a loss to their name. We all agree they’re rather good—opinions differ on how good, but Movelor and SP+ agree they’re the second-best Group of Five team—but their margin for error has already decreased. They have plenty of cultural cachet, between Ashton Jeanty’s early Heisman hype and the announcement this morning that they’ll be among the Mountain West schools joining Oregon State and Washington State to try to resurrect the Pac-12. But they do have that loss. It’s a close loss! On the road! To a team who might figure it out and turn out great! But they do have that loss.
James Madison is a team Movelor’s higher on than SP+ and FPI. All systems agree, though, that even after Curt Cignetti’s departure the Dukes remain a Sun Belt contender. The Sun Belt is probably the best Group of Five conference. It’s built itself up over the last twenty years. As one of the Sun Belt favorites, JMU is a playoff favorite as well. They didn’t look good against Gardner-Webb. But they’re a believable Sun Belt champ and they have a shot at a Power Four win next week when they play UNC in Chapel Hill.
Teams in the Picture: San Jose State, UNLV, Tulane, Coastal Carolina
UNLV, like Texas State, will play in front of a lot of eyeballs tomorrow night. Red-headed quarterback Matthew Sluka, a transfer from Holy Cross, is a big bruiser of a guy. Has Brennan Marion finally taught Sluka how to pass? The Rebels’ trip to Kansas should be a good test of that. (One fun thing: At Holy Cross, Sluka was coached by Bob Chesney. Chesney’s the new coach at JMU. Together in Worcester, they brought the Crusader program back from some very deep depths. There are scenarios where it comes down to Sluka vs. Chesney for the final playoff spot.)
San Jose State is weirder. Brent Brennan is gone, off to Arizona. Ken Niumatalolo is in, moving west after years at Navy. As with JMU, Movelor is higher on SJSU than the consensus, but the Spartans are 2–0, and they’ve outperformed even Movelor’s higher-than-average expectations so far. Crucially, they play both Boise State and UNLV at home. They also have opportunities against Stanford, Washington State, and Oregon State. Might SJSU play its way into a Pac-12 invite? (We’ll have a bigger Pac-12 post up at www.thebarkingcrow.com later today.)
Tulane, like Boise State, has already lost, but as with Boise State, systems agree the Green Wave is pretty good, and they certainly hung with Kansas State on Saturday. On average, Movelor, SP+, and FPI rank these guys as the third-best Group of Five squad. For context, Liberty is tied for eighth in that ranking, and Northern Illinois is 17th.
Finally, Coastal Carolina: Another Sun Belt favorite, and a team all three systems we’re referencing agree on. Jamey Chadwell is off to Liberty, but Tim Beck managed an 8–5 finish in his debut season, and early results this year have been positive.
Trying to Get in the Picture: Toledo, Army, East Carolina, Texas State, Fresno State, Northern Illinois, UTSA, USF, Appalachian State, Louisiana, Miami (OH), Ohio, Bowling Green, North Texas, Western Kentucky
This is a big list. Going conference-by-conference:
AAC: Army, East Carolina, UTSA, USF, North Texas
The only one on this list for whom we’ll wave a red flag is UTSA. Movelor gains a lot of its accuracy by erring on the slow side of reactions to individual games. UTSA’s 39-point loss to Texas State was damaging, though, and it was a very bad sign. Movelor is probably too high on these guys.
The other four are all believable. Even USF, who lost to Alabama. (That was a strong enough showing that it could help them.) Even Army, who’d face a weird situation where they’d be awarded their playoff bid then have to go play Navy the week before their first round game. Even UNT, who isn’t all that good but is 2–0 and plays in the winnable, high-profile AAC.
Mountain West: Fresno State
It’s an awkward middle ground for the Bulldogs, who aren’t on the planes of Boise State, UNLV, and even San Jose State but are still in the mix. They lost to Michigan, but as with USF’s Bama loss, that doesn’t have to hurt them.
Sun Belt: Texas State, Appalachian State, Louisiana
App State was a preseason darling, but Clemson obliterated them. That’s probably not a good sign. Louisiana, meanwhile, has quietly looked very effective over the season’s first two weeks. SP+ has them the third-best Group of Five team. Keep an eye on the Ragin’ Cajuns.
MAC: Toledo, Northern Illinois, Miami (OH), Ohio, Bowling Green
Toledo’s the MAC favorite according to most, and they get a great opportunity in Starkville on Saturday night. With a win, they’re up to 11% playoff-likely.
NIU? We certainly won’t sleep on them. There’s a very real scenario where they have one of the best wins in the country come December. The chance Notre Dame is good correlates strongly with the chance the Huskies can hold their own with Power Four bodies in the trenches. If they can do that, they can win the MAC.
Our model has NIU winning eleven or twelve regular season games about four percent of the time. Movelor is lower on the Huskies, though, than either SP+ or FPI.
Miami, Ohio, and Bowling Green each already have a loss, but losses to Northwestern, Syracuse, and Penn State (especially) aren’t necessarily deal-breakers.
Conference USA: Western Kentucky
Western Kentucky did not do anything which resembled hanging with Alabama, but the Hilltoppers are the second fiddle to Liberty in Conference USA. There are scenarios.
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Tonight’s is going to be a fun one. Arizona State at Texas State. Two of the biggest overperformers of expectations so far this year.
The Sun Devils would be thrilled with a bowl appearance in Kenny Dillingham’s second year. They might get more than that. Picked to finish last in their new Big 12, ASU ran all over Wyoming in Week 1 and held off Mississippi State last weekend to get to 2–0. Running back Cam Skattebo rushed for 262 yards against the SEC competition. He’s an aggressive, physical runner, short and stout and also capable of throwing out of wildcat sets.
Texas State, of course, has those eyes on the playoff. Second-year coach GJ Kinne brought his QB coach and offensive coordinator, Mack Leftwich, with him from Incarnate Word. The aggressive tempo came along with the pair. So did the underdog identity. Last week, 5’7” Chris Dawn Jr. averaged 30 yards per catch on five receptions, including a pair of touchdowns.
(No known relation between Mack Leftwich and Byron Leftwich. Mack Leftwich is white.)
Texas State quarterback Jordan McCloud’s followed a circuitous route that’s featured a starting role at USF, some spot starts for Arizona (McCloud quit the team when he lost the job his second year), a Sun Belt Player of the Year award last season at JMU, and now this. This is McCloud’s seventh year in college. The man turns 25 in November.
ASU quarterback Sam Leavitt is a redshirt freshman who transferred in from Michigan State. He was a four-star recruit and Oregon’s Gatorade Player of the Year. That’s not a bad pedigree.
Again, it should be a fun game. Two very different offenses. One rather capable defense facing a tricky test. Presumably one of the most raucous crowds San Marcos has ever seen. At least in the football stadium, that is. We’ve heard about the good times available on the Square.
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We’ll have more at www.thebarkingcrow.com throughout the day: Pac-12 realignment talk, a bet for tonight’s game, this week’s futures plays, and a look at Iowa State’s remaining season ahead. We’ll be back on the Substack tomorrow with some Bill Snyder history. See you there.
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