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It’s here. Georgia vs. Texas.
We eagerly slapped a “Game of the Century” label on this when we saw it on the schedule this spring. Texas’s breakthrough last season left the Longhorns aiming for King of the Playground status. Georgia was our closest thing to a current monarch. This would be the schools’ first SEC meeting. This would be the Bulldogs’ first trip to Austin since 1958. This would be Quinn Ewers vs. Carson Beck, and Kirby Smart vs. Steve Sarkisian in the immediate post-Saban era. This would be the two schools best built for college football in the entire country, the capital of the South vs. the capital of Texas, a little more wealth on one side and a little better average SAT score on the other.
It’s still all of these things. It’s still a special game. But it’s not so mighty as it could have been. Georgia’s loss to Alabama changed this game’s complexion, especially when Alabama followed up their triumph with a loss to Vanderbilt and an afternoon spent playing with South Carolina’s matchbook. Georgia’s back is getting closer to the wall. Texas has something to lose now. We thought this would be a showdown for the crown, two equal forces lining up to fight with all the pride in the sport on the line. Instead, it looks like Texas has that crown already, gifted it by a thief from Tuscaloosa on a dark September night. This is not two warriors entering a fair fight. This is Georgia coming to Texas and scaling the wall, trying to take back what they believe is rightfully theirs.
Georgia’s discipline or motivation or whatever you want to call it has been a subplot for a few years now. When Smart’s pregame speeches conveniently leak, it’s called a strength. When Georgia players are testing their speedometers and dicking around against Mississippi State, it’s called a weakness. There’s the old comparison between Michael Jordan and Kevin Garnett, the one which talks about Jordan raising his game in the playoffs and Garnett not raising his own, not because of some deficiency on Garnett’s part but because Garnett was already operating at one hundred percent capacity one hundred percent of the time. Theoretically, you could shape Georgia into Jordan in this metaphor, saying they turn up their performance when the lights are the brightest. This feels disrespectful to Michael Jordan. Not because of any off-field Georgia controversies, but because selectively elevating one’s game—what Jordan did—is different from Georgia’s practice of taking low-stakes weekends off. Jordan demonstrated high daily standards for his effort, then played above even those.
Jordan parallel or not, this should be a game where we see what Georgia can do. Either they truly are capable of selectively showing up and also capable of what 2022’s team could do, they aren’t capable of selectively showing up and so their ceiling doesn’t matter, or they can pull off the selectively showing up part but they’re still not on a national championship level. Our hunch is that the truth lies between the second and third option. This team battled back admirably against the Crimson Tide. They did not quit. That doesn’t change the fact they didn’t show up in the first half, and it doesn’t change that their best wasn’t enough after the comeback was complete and they’d taken over the lead.
I would opine that a better encapsulation of Georgia than “they’ve showed up when it matters” is this: Georgia’s been inconsistent. Georgia’s usually gotten away with this. Georgia’s often been much, much better than everybody else. Now? Now the gap’s been closed. Alabama’s still right there. Ohio State is probably right there. Oregon and even Mississippi might be right there. Texas, most relevantly, appears to be right there. Georgia didn’t need discipline when it built a team that was simply better than every other team in the country. Now that they’re in the pack, they need it, and discipline’s a hard thing to build overnight.
Smart has drawn more comparisons to Saban than Sarkisian has, and for good reason. Smart was more a Saban product than a Saban associate like Sark. Sarkisian, though, is more similar to Saban in terms of his head coaching approach: Sarkisian knows how to run a football program. Smart knows how to coach a football team, but that’s not where the job ends. Sarkisian knows how to run a football program. He might have learned that from Nick Saban.
They’re foils, Smart and Sark, a rabid defensive back and a polished quarterback, a South Georgian and a Californian. Both are brilliantly intelligent, but it comes out in different ways. You can picture Smart thriving in an old-school puke-filled two-a-day, mf-ing lazy plays and spitting tobacco juice onto dead grass. You can picture Sarkisian fitting right in back in Hollywood, or in the Austin equivalent, brighter with his chosen shade of orange than McConaughey, but not out of place on a red carpet.
Ewers and Beck? Foils too. Ewers is savvy, a businessman since his junior year of high school, but he courts an older generation of football person than Beck does. Beck is Jacksonville dressed up as Jacksonville. Ewers is Dallas dressed up as West Texas. Beck is Generation Z enjoying Generation Z. Ewers is Generation Z mingling with Gen X and Millennials.
We thought this game might decide the Heisman. Neither QB stands much chance of winning it now, now that Ewers has missed time with the oblique injury and Beck took his licks from Alabama. In a way, that makes it more personal, just as Georgia coming in accompanied by so much doubt gives the Smart/Sarkisian duel a meaner tint. I doubt any of these four main characters think of it that way. I’m sure Smart and Sark respect one another, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if Ewers and Beck have texted a time or two. But in the great cultural cinematography of college football, we find Texas a prince, standing in his own castle awaiting his coronation. In comes Georgia, a deposed king turned wanderer, looking to reclaim something stolen off his shoulders.
Saturday is supposed to be about Texas. More likely than not, it will be about Texas when all’s said and done. We should be asking today whether Texas is back and preparing to, on Sunday, proclaim them back-er than they were before. But it’s hard not to view Georgia as the main character in Saturday night’s story. I personally tend to think they’re inconsistent, flaky, a little bit lazy, and led by a negligent coach. I personally tend to think Texas is efficient, driven, organized and polished, led by a man who himself learned discipline in one of the hardest ways imaginable. But I can’t take my eyes off of Georgia. Maybe it’s the talent gap, an equation which probably breaks the Bulldogs’ way. Maybe it’s doubts about Ewers being fully healthy, and a perception that Texas is too conscious of media and fan reactions when they decide which quarterback to play. Maybe it’s how different this feels from what we expected preseason, a disproportional shift to a one-possession road loss. Whatever the reason, I sat down to write about how Texas is the undisputed best team in the country, and here I am, waiting for Georgia to dispute that.
Conditional playoff probabilities, from our model:
- Texas: 99.6% with a win, 96% with a loss
- Georgia: 94% with a win, 66% with a loss
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More) Big Games
Alabama at Tennessee
Nobody tried to burn down Kalen DeBoer’s house on Saturday night, so the guy might be through the worst of it in Tuscaloosa, and it wouldn’t be surprising if we learned Alabama spent time these last two weeks preparing for the Volunteers at the expense of Commodore and Gamecock prep.
After the loss to Arkansas, there was concern about Tennessee’s health, but the Volunteers played a fairly full lineup against Florida. Of course, that lineup didn’t play very well—the Vols nearly took a backbreaking loss at home—but again, it wouldn’t be surprising if eyes were focused on this week. This is the fulcrum for Tennessee’s season. Beat Alabama, and they’re back in playoff projections, a possibility for the SEC Championship. Lose, and it’s likely just one more chance against Georgia, with the Oklahoma and NC State wins not exactly saying a lot anymore.
For Alabama? This is a junior version of what Georgia’s going through in Austin. In the short-term picture, the Tide are looking to cement their playoff expectations and avoid life on the bubble ahead of matchups with Mizzou and LSU. In the broader scope of the sport, this is about keeping the riffraff out of the kingdom. Alabama already let Georgia sneak into their sphere a few years ago. Now, Texas is in the room as well, strutting in front of the mirror. Lose this one, and the walls come down. Lose this one, and Tennessee is every bit the SEC power Alabama is. Nick Saban isn’t the coach anymore in Tuscaloosa. Kalen DeBoer is. And Kalen DeBoer has, shocking as it is to say given the man beat Georgia, proven nothing so far.
This has the potential to get a little crazy in the fourth quarter, with Alabama’s struggling secondary facing a big but sometimes hesitant arm from Nico Iamaleava. Tennessee’s going to try to make inroads against the Alabama offensive line and put heat on Jalen Milroe, but that’s not going to be as easy as putting heat on Jackson Arnold.
It’s supposed to be a beautiful afternoon in Knoxville, and the sun should set right around the time the game ends. Scenic and special, a great appetizer to Texas/Georgia. Someone’s going to walk away invigorated. Someone’s going to walk away with a lot to process. Can Tennessee break through? Is Alabama broken?
Playoff probabilities (independent of other results):
- Alabama: 90% with a win, 49% with a loss
- Tennessee: 72% with a win, 19% with a loss
Miami at Louisville
Earlier in the day, over in the ACC, we’ve got a bigger one than the anticipation indicates. Louisville may have lost to Notre Dame and SMU, but those aren’t disreputable losses, and catching Miami at home in a game with an early kick could lead to some revitalization.
We still don’t know if Miami is good. We know they can be good, and that they’re closer to it than has been the recent norm, but this team’s biggest measuring sticks have been Florida and Cal. The further the Canes get into the season, the lesser the risk of Cam Ward chaos going too far, but this is not a steady, predictable football team even relative to others in this nationally inconsistent season. Louisville, meanwhile, is limited but balanced and capable. The Cards have dug a small hole for themselves, and they didn’t look sharp against Virginia, but they’re capable of competing here in the toughest test Miami’s faced this season.
Playoff probabilities:
- Miami: 80% with a win, 38% with a loss
- Louisville: 12% with a win
(We aren’t including every conditional probability, but that doesn’t mean teams are 0.00% playoff-likely with losses or that teams down below have absolutely no playoff chance. Long story short, we run these for a limited number of games each week.)
Playoff-Impacting Games
Oregon at Purdue
Will Oregon get trapped on Friday night? Before last week, Purdue was the worst power conference team in the country, and while they still might be, they did seem to unlock something over in Champaign. It’s a night game on a short week in West Lafayette. Oregon’s flying three quarters of the way across the country after their biggest win under Dan Lanning. The Ducks might be prepared in a football sense, but are they prepared as people?
Playoff probabilities:
- Oregon: 91% with a win, 43% with a loss
Oklahoma State at BYU
Kansas State at West Virginia
UCF at Iowa State
In the Big 12, we’ve got what seems to be a three-horse race between BYU, Kansas State, and Iowa State. It could open up, or some others on the fringe could butt into the thick of it, but we see three horses up front right now.
BYU gets Oklahoma State on Friday night, and this one’s scary. Again, there’s a short week going on, and while the late kick and home-field advantage should favor the Cougars, the Pokes had last weekend idle. Also: Is Mike Gundy ever really out of it in the Big 12? These guys haven’t finished below .500 since Gundy’s first season, way back in 2005. A team due for positive regression meets one due for negative regression. That’s a test for BYU.
In Morgantown, Neal Brown wants the fans to have fun, but the fans would have more fun if Neal Brown would win. West Virginia’s faced a tough schedule so far, with all three of their losses coming to still-undefeated teams, but it isn’t exactly getting easier. K-State’s trying to stay one step behind the top of the Big 12 and keep what little breathing room they have ahead of Utah. It’s another night game for WVU.
Iowa State has the simplest task of these three contenders, but it wasn’t long ago that UCF was receiving conference contention buzz itself. Guz Malzahn has made a bowl in every one of his seasons as a head coach. He’s always found a way.
Playoff probabilities:
- BYU: 68% with a win, 26% with a loss
- K-State: 53% with a win, 12% with a loss
- WVU: 4% with a win
- ISU: 66% with a win, 22% with a loss
If Iowa State and BYU both win, BYU shows up in the playoff slightly more often (68% vs. 65%), but that’s independent of K-State/WVU and it’s unclear who’d be favored in the Big 12 itself. The Iowa and SMU wins are comparable but not equal.
Virginia at Clemson
SMU at Stanford
Over in the ACC, Clemson probably isn’t getting tested here, but it’s easy to imagine an early kick against a 4–2 team going poorly. Out west, Stanford hasn’t shown much this season, but SMU looked lackadaisical the last time they traveled a long way, back in Week Zero when they struggled to get past Nevada in Reno. There’s no altitude at play this time, but an idle week can prove inconvenient when a team with discipline questions was clicking so well ahead of their midseason break. We’re not saying Clemson or SMU (or Iowa State or Oregon, etc.) will lose, but we find it more interesting to point towards how it could happen than to say, “Clemson should win by 20.5 points.”
Playoff probabilities:
- Clemson: 78% with a win, 30% with a loss
- Virginia: 1% with a win
- SMU: 42% with a win, 5% with a loss
Notre Dame vs. Georgia Tech
At Mercedes–Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Notre Dame’s still looking for respect, and respect can only really come for them from piling up wins. The Irish are rated the sixth-best team in the country by both Movelor and FPI, but their loss to NIU and paucity of quality wins have them outside the top 25 in Wins Above Bubble. Margin matters to the committee. This is a must-win, and the winning is the part that matters most, but it’d be most helpful to win by a lot.
Playoff probabilities:
- Notre Dame: 85% with a win, 36% with a loss
- Georgia Tech: 4% with a win
Texas A&M at Mississippi State
LSU at Arkansas
The SEC has two new playoff hopefuls, and they both go on the road. Texas A&M gets the easier test between the two, with Mississippi State taking up Vanderbilt’s mantle as the worst SEC team. But both should win these games, especially if they’re the playoff hopefuls they purport to be. For those wondering: Brian Kelly’s only previous trip to Fayetteville was for a 13–10 win in 2022, the year Arkansas beat Mississippi but lost to Liberty amongst other rollercoaster-shaped results.
Playoff probabilities:
- Texas A&M: 13% with a win, 1% with a loss
- LSU: 28% with a win, 4% with a loss
- Arkansas: 1% with a win
East Carolina at Army
Rice at Tulane
James Madison at Georgia Southern
In the Group of Five, it’s all about taking care of business. There’s understandable attention on both Army and Navy, who are undefeated overall, but Tulane’s also undefeated in AAC play and keeps sneaking back up our playoff probabilities. Both they and the Black Knights are big home favorites, while JMU’s favored at the moment by just shy of double digits down in Statesboro. Georgia Southern leads the Sun Belt East at 2–0, so this might be make or break for the Dukes’ conference championship hopes.
Playoff probabilities:
- Army: 13% with a win
- Tulane: 13% with a win
- James Madison: 19% with a win
(Boise State is idle this week.)
Hawaii at Washington State
Finally…John Mateer. The Cougs are still hanging around the picture. As we try to point out every time we talk Cougar: Our model guesses the CFP committee will view these guys as half a power conference team, but I personally think the committee won’t end up being that charitable. So, take all WSU playoff probabilities with a grain of salt:
- Washington State: 11% with a win
Interesting Games
Nebraska at Indiana
Charlotte at Navy
Going back to Navy and undefeated AAC teams: Charlotte also hasn’t lost in AAC play. Biff Poggi’s 49ers are having a bizarre year, injuring a large number of starters in training camp, hardly beating Gardner-Webb in Week 3, and now rattling off a road win over Rice and a blowout victory over East Carolina in their last two conference games. Navy’s a hefty favorite here, but keep an eye on this, just in case.
As for Indiana and Nebraska: Apologies to Indiana fans for how slow Movelor is to respect you. It’s a hesitant system, which is often a strength but occasionally a weakness. It’s a weakness right now. We’re inclined to believe SP+ and FPI when they call Indiana top-20 rather than top-40 nationally, where Movelor has them.
Still, we’re curious how the Hoosiers will perform against the toughest defense they’ve seen this year and possibly the toughest defense in the entire country. Nebraska’s 5–1 itself, somewhat forgotten after losing to Illinois but generally a capable team. The Huskers are looking for their first bowl berth since 2016. The Hoosiers, of course, are trying to get to 7–0.
Playoff probabilities, from that model we think is probably too low on IU:
- Indiana: 15% with a win, 1% with a loss
- Nebraska: 2% with a win
- Navy: 4% with a win
Wisconsin at Northwestern
Michigan at Illinois
USC at Maryland
Iowa at Michigan State
In more Big Ten action: Wisconsin’s looked great on offense against Purdue and Rutgers, but they now face a Northwestern team who likes to play alligator and pull teams into the muck. Michigan’s looking a lot like a Bret Bielema-coached team as they run into Bret Bielema on the road. USC’s trying to avoid a full-on doom spiral, flying to D.C. to meet Maryland in College Park. With a loss, USC’s down below .500. Lastly, in the NBC primetime matchup, Iowa goes into East Lansing looking to reach a 3–1 mark in conference play. The Hawkeyes are getting some top 25 nods. Can they keep them?
Playoff probabilities:
- Michigan: 8% with a win
- Illinois: 4% with a win
- Iowa: 8% with a win
Auburn at Missouri
South Carolina at Oklahoma
Kentucky at Florida
Going into the SEC: How does Missouri respond in their first conference game since the Texas A&M implosion? Can Hugh Freeze win a conference game? Is Oklahoma bad, or did they just play Tennessee and Texas? Is South Carolina bad, or did they just play LSU, Mississippi, and Alabama? What in the world should we make of Kentucky and Florida?
No shortage of intrigue, even with only meager direct playoff impact:
- Mizzou: 5% with a win
Arizona State at Cincinnati
Baylor at Texas Tech
Colorado at Arizona
TCU at Utah
We listed three Big 12 games up above, and we’ve got four more here, and if you’re doing the math, it’s Houston and Kansas who didn’t get the love this time around.
ASU and Cincinnati are both 2–1 in Big 12 play, with the league ceiling low enough for each of them to touch it at their best. Texas Tech hasn’t lost a conference game yet. Colorado has exceeded reasonable expectations and boasts a Heisman contender, but it’s hard to ever completely count out Noah Fifita and Tetairoa McMillan, no matter how emphatically the data tells us to stop considering Arizona a nationally competitive tema. (McMillan vs. Travis Hunter should be a fun matchup.) Finally, the post-Cam Rising era (for now) begins in Salt Lake City with TCU in town for an old Mountain West matchup. Is Utah really as bad without Rising as betting markets seem to believe?
Playoff probabilities:
- Texas Tech: 6% with a win
North Texas at Memphis
UNLV at Oregon State
Memphis is still poking around the Group of Five race, with only the loss to Navy working against them and that loss looking more and more excusable as Navy continues to win. UNLV is very much in the Group of Five race, and the trip to Corvallis is one of their better opportunities to make noise, though a lot will obviously hinge on one if not two matchups with Boise State, with that pair’s regular season meeting coming next Friday in Las Vegas.
Playoff probabilities:
- Memphis: 5% with a win
- UNLV: 15% with a win, 1% with a loss
FCS (Movelor) Top 25 Games
South Dakota State at North Dakota State
Weber State at Sacramento State
Finally, the FCS. Not a lot of top-25 action this week, but the Dakota Marker game makes up in quality for what the rest of the country lacks in quantity. Likely the two best teams in the subdivision, and current archrivals. Great stuff all around. We’ll preview this more fully tomorrow.
In the Big Sky, Weber State and Sacramento State both already have four losses to their names, giving this a do-or-die atmosphere. Life’s tough in the MVFC and Big Sky.
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Some resources for the weekend:
- Our latest College Football Playoff Bracketology.
- Our model’s playoff probabilities.
- Movelor’s Week 8 spreads.
Bark.
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