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The FCS National Championship will be decided tonight, the game kicking off at 7:00 PM Eastern on ESPN. On one side, the Big Sky champions and 15–0 Montana State Bobcats, I-AA/FCS champions once before, in 1984. Opposite them, the 13–2 North Dakota State Bison, Missouri Valley Football Conference co-champions and nine-time FCS champs, most recently in 2021.
Should you care?
It’s an arbitrary question. It’s about personal tastes. Movelor, the power rating system behind our college football model, says this is most similar in quality to a game between Oklahoma and Virginia Tech, with a slightly tighter spread. It’s on par with a mid-level bowl game, then, or a medium-name power conference showdown in early September. That’s in terms of the quality of football set to be played. Aesthetically, it’ll be a little worse. These are football teams of Oklahoma and Virginia Tech’s quality, but they’re built of lesser athletes than what’s normal for the ACC and SEC. The players are making more of their physical abilities, but things are visibly less smooth at the FCS level than they are in the Power Four. In terms of the athletics, expect something more like UNLV playing Marshall.
Of course, if you’re a college football fan, the quality of football probably isn’t what matters to you in the first place. The gap is massive between even the Tennessee Titans, worst in the NFL, and what Ohio State showed on Wednesday. You want to see great football? The NFL will let you watch at least five games a week, live in their entirety.
If you like college football, you probably like it for one or more of the following reasons: The weight of its rivalries. Its dynastic tendencies. The connections between teams, their universities, and the segments of the population those universities represent. The bright-eyed hopefulness of the sometimes amateurs who play it. The intentional and unintentional comedy of games like the Pop-Tarts Bowl and USC vs. Maryland. With these two teams in this one game, a lot of that stuff is present. But if it isn’t familiar to you, then it’s understandable if you’re inclined to tune it out.
We’ll get to the matchup itself, but as a primer on what’s at stake, we’re going to first take a look at who these two programs are. We’ll start with the 2-seed, the Bison of North Dakota State University.
North Dakota State is FCS royalty, but they’re a relative newcomer to the Division I world. As recently as the spring of 2004, NDSU was a Division II athletic department. We wrote more about the program’s ascent in August, but the short version is that after his hiring in 2003, a guy named Craig Bohl built the Bison into the biggest, baddest, most successful college football team the FCS has ever seen. Under Bohl, Chris Klieman, and then Matt Entz, North Dakota State won national championships in eight of nine seasons, a stretch in which they only lost eight total games. Some of this dominance can be traced to a few southern FCS schools joining the FBS, specifically Appalachian State. But at the dynasty’s peak, North Dakota State was beating top-25 FBS competition, and Movelor ranked it sixth in the entire country at the end of the 2012 season, a tenth of a point higher than the BCS National Championship’s runner up.
Dynasties rise and crumble, and for the last few years, it looked like NDSU was losing its grip. Matt Entz, coach of the 2019 and 2021 national champions, lost more games in 2022 and 2023 than Klieman did in his entire five-year tenure. Down across the state line, South Dakota State’s rise pushed NDSU out of top chair in even its own conference, the MVFC. Entz had won two national titles in five years. It would have been a crazy move to fire him. Probably thankfully, Entz moved on of his own volition last offseason, accepting an offer from Lincoln Riley to help coach USC’s defense. From what we can tell, NDSU caught a break.
Entz’s successor, Tim Polasek, dabbled heavily in the Craig Bohl coaching tree. From 2007 through 2012, he was a position coach in Fargo, and after a single season at NIU, he returned as offensive coordinator from 2014 through 2016. Unlike Klieman and Entz, he was not an internal promotion, but he knew his way around the Fargodome when he arrived back on campus last winter. So far, it looks like he’s succeeding in his role. NDSU’s only two losses so far this year came by a combined six points, and one of them came against a Colorado Buffaloes team who nearly made the Big 12 Championship. (The other was to South Dakota, whom Montana State eliminated across the bracket in the semifinals.) In two matchups with South Dakota State, the Bison went 2–0, extinguishing a potential Jackrabbits dynasty before it could get roaring. North Dakota State has a long history with this game’s Frisco era. With the FCS moving to Nashville next year, it’s fitting that Polasek got the Bison here one last time.
What’s at stake for the Bison?
If NDSU wins, tonight is a triumphant return to the top of its sport. If NDSU loses, this year was merely progress. It was an encouraging debut for Polasek, It was a stopping of the Entz-era bleeding. It was not a return to the glories of the 2010’s. Whichever way it goes, there could be large ripples, since NDSU’s built one of the larger FCS fanbases and has acknowledged the potential for an FBS move in the future.
For Montana State, there’s not much in the way of empire to reclaim. This is about staking out new royal claims.
Historically, Montana State has been the Treasure State’s little brother program. Montana was a founding member of the Pacific Coast Conference, the league people pretend turned into the Pac-12 when they call the Pac-12 one hundred years old. Montana State was an NAIA school well into the 1950’s, never tasting Division I football until 1978, when the Big Sky collectively transitioned from Division II to Division I with the creation of the I-AA subdivision. Montana had long since joined Montana State’s ranks, but even though the pair played on a level field, the Griz were and have traditionally remained stronger than the Cats. Montana has two national championships to its name. Montana State has one. Montana has 637 all-time wins and a .552 all-time win percentage. Montana State has 525 wins, acquiring them at a .516 rate. Most tellingly, Montana leads the all-time series between the two 74 to 43, with five ties. From 1986 through 2001, the Grizzlies beat the Bobcats 16 straight times.
That isn’t to say Montana State hasn’t been competitive nationally. They’ve had their stretches, winning shares of the Big Sky seven times in these forty years since the 1984 national championship. But they haven’t been Montana. Over that same stretch, Montana hung 17 conference banners, and twelve of those were outright titles. For Montana State, this was the first outright conference championship since, again, 1984.
Nine schools have won multiple I-AA/FCS national championships. Five of those still play in the FCS. If Montana State wins tonight, those numbers become ten and six. If Montana State wins tonight, Montana State matches Montana for all-time titles. It matches South Dakota State. It even matches Marshall and James Madison.
For North Dakota State, tonight is about reclaiming their crown atop the FCS landscape. For Montana State, it’s about grabbing a seat on the court.
How did the Bobcats pull this off? The rise started under Jeff Choate, who got the program to 11-win territory in 2019, a season in which they lost in the FCS semifinals to NDSU. But the real architect was Brent Vigen.
Brent Vigen was raised in Buxton, North Dakota, a tiny town about 45 minutes outside of Fargo. He played football for his dad at Central Valley High, then made his way to North Dakota State as a tight end. After his playing days were done, he joined Bob Babich’s staff as a graduate assistant, sticking around when Craig Bohl took on the top job. In 2013, when Bohl left for Wyoming, NDSU chose Klieman, the defensive coordinator, to be his successor. Vigen, the offensive coordinator, headed west with Bohl to Laramie.
Nobody will ever say North Dakota State made the wrong call that offseason promoting Klieman instead of Vigen. But in 2018, when Kansas State plucked Klieman away, NDSU probably had a chance at Vigen. They went with Entz instead. Two seasons later, Montana State grabbed Vigen, making him sort of a lost king in Bohl’s Fargodome lineage.
When Vigen took over in Bozeman, Montana State hadn’t played a football game in more than a year. They were one of three Big Sky programs who opted out of the 2020–21 FCS season in its entirety. As others were beginning that bizarro spring campaign, Nevada was hiring Choate, and Montana State was bringing Vigen aboard. This isn’t to say expectations were low for Vigen’s debut. The FCS’s preseason media poll of record ranked the Bobcats twelfth. But it’s worth remembering that Vigen, who’s made the playoffs in every season at Montana State, led that 2021 team to the national championship when the team had played only an intrasquad spring game the season before.
For Montana State, then, this is about counting themselves a leader in the FCS. This is about winning that second title and joining that court. For Vigen, it’s about beating the football program that raised him. There are a lot of institutional advantages these days in Fargo. Those weren’t there in Bozeman when Vigen showed up. Can Brent Vigen beat his alma mater? Can Brent Vigen do more with less?
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The FCS National Championship, much like its BCS and then CFP counterparts, isn’t always the most competitive affair. You’d have to go back to 2019 to find a serious clash between two FCS titans where the outcome was in doubt at the kick. Those NDSU games against James Madison in 2017 and 2019 were landmark affairs. In most other recent seasons, North or South Dakota State has bashed somebody’s brains in.
For numbers, ESPN’s SP+ and the betting market consensus are very much in line here, projecting a 3.5-point margin in Montana State’s favor and a total right around 57. Movelor sees the game differently, favoring North Dakota State by 1.3. I believe FPI has some sort of FCS rating, but I haven’t seen a projection from it for this game. ESPN doesn’t publish FPI rankings for the FCS.
The bottom line is that it’s close. Montana State did beat South Dakota head to head, and South Dakota beat North Dakota State, but NDSU’s loss to the Coyotes came in Vermillion in a regular season setting. Montana State won in Bozeman in a playoff game, one with national championship stakes. Both teams are well-rounded, close to the top of the FCS in nearly every meaningful category when adjusted for opponent. South Dakota State was good as well, and South Dakota had quite the come-up, but these are probably the two best FCS teams. Or at least, one of these two is probably the best.
There’s a little bit of potential NFL talent on display, but aside from NDSU’s Grey Zabel, a second or third-round prospect on the offensive line, it’s currently unlikely we’ll see anyone drafted. Instead, the player to watch on both teams is the quarterback. Each is a senior. Tommy Mellott, Montana State’s starter under center, has a particular history with NDSU.
In both 2021 and 2023, North Dakota State ended Montana State’s seasons. In both 2021 and 2023, Tommy Mellott left the game injured. If Mellott can finish the game tonight, it’ll be Vigen’s first contest against NDSU with his starting QB fully upright.
Mellott has thrown for over 2,500 yards this year. He could become a thousand-yard rusher for the second straight year tonight. Between his arm and his legs, he’s accounted for 39 touchdowns while throwing just two interceptions. He’s always been enthralling to watch, but this has been the senior season a player of his caliber deserves. On Saturday night, the Butte High School product became 2024’s Walter Payton Award winner, joining the likes of Steve McNair, Brian Westbrook, Tony Romo, and Cooper Kupp.
Opposite Mellott is Cam Miller, a quarterback who often looked a little small for the moment during his first few years in Fargo. Tasked with replacing Trey Lance, who replaced Easton Stick who replaced Carson Wentz, Miller struggled at times. He did win that 2021 season’s title, but he did it throwing the ball hardly ten times per game.
This year, Miller has grown.
You could see it first in the Colorado game. Miller was efficient and both careful and courageous, completing 82% of his passes while running for multiple scores. The Bison’s near-disaster against East Tennessee State featured one of Miller’s poorer passing games, but when NDSU needed to score every drive, Miller and his offense scored every drive. Against South Dakota State in October, Miller was bottled up on the ground, but he threw for both NDSU touchdowns and, again, hardly threw any incompletions. It wasn’t until November 16th against Missouri State that Cam Miller threw an interception this year, and in the semifinal rematch with SDSU, the fifth-year senior had a hand in every NDSU score, throwing for three while running for one in a game where he nearly topped one hundred yards on the ground.
Mellott has always been gallant and compelling, and while Montana State’s technically the favorite tonight, he’s the prototype for an underdog quarterback trying to topple the FCS’s greatest long-term power. For a long time, Miller was among that power’s greatest vulnerabilities. Not anymore.
In the way of sidekicks, watch for Bryce Lance on NDSU and Taco Dowler for Montana State. Lance is the younger brother of Trey Lance and has become a serious weapon out wide. He caught all three of Miller’s touchdown passes in the semifinals, and the third of them, the game-winner, ranks among the best catches made by a college receiver this year. Dowler is a lesser receiver, at least statistically, but he’s Montana State’s leader in yards and touchdowns and he’s also a strong punt returner, averaging more than a dozen yards per return this year.
NDSU’s still got its hog mollies, led by Zabel, and we’ll find out whether Montana State has the strength inside to stop them. But if the Bobcats can hold their own in the trenches and turn this game into Mellott vs. Miller, we could have a classic on our hands.
Sorry for publishing this so close to kickoff, which is now roughly an hour and a half away. Once we started writing about this game, we couldn’t really stop.
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We caught up on the coaching carousel on Saturday (promised QB carousel post has been bumped to tomorrow), and we’ve already got one addition and one development:
First, Wes Goodwin is out as Clemson’s defensive coordinator. The defense which kept the fading power upright after Trevor Lawrence’s graduation has now itself faded into fringe top 25 territory, and with the offense finally respectable again, Dabo Swinney deemed it time for transition. The third-year Goodwin, who succeeded Brent Venables directly as an internal promotion, is out. It should be a pretty good job.
Second, the Seahawks fired offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb today one year after Grubb helped lead Washington to a national championship appearance. Not a great twelve months for Kalen DeBoer and his longtime right-hand man.
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